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Světová ekonomika, Březen 2013 (dokument v AJ)

Světová ekonomika, Březen 2013 (dokument v AJ)

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Published by Ivana Levá
Global Economic Outlook, March 2013

Czech Republic: Disinflation risk

Leading indicators suggest the Czech economy has been bottoming out in Q1 2013.
However, the economy will continue to contract in year-on-year terms for much of the
year and, after the 1.1% drop in 2012, we expect GDP to fall by 0.4% in 2013.

The recovery hopes, as in most other Central European economies, are premised on
stronger growth in Germany later this year. The outlook for domestic demand is
extremely poor. As the labour market will continue to weaken for most of the year and
fiscal policy remains tight, we are particularly concerned about the outlook for personal
consumption for the next two to three quarters, at least.

In Q1 2013, headline inflation has slowed below 2% y/y, while monetary-policy
relevant inflation (which excludes indirect tax changes) is hovering around 1.0% y/y –
well below the CNB’s target of 2%. Despite another round of tax hikes in 2013, we do
not expect inflation to pick up this year. The absence of demand points to a further
decline in underlying inflation, while lower food and fuel inflation will also help to limit
the rise in prices this year. In fact, the weakness in personal consumption points to the
re-emergence of deflationary risks – if not for headline inflation then certainly for the
core (or monetary-policy relevant) inflation measures.

FX intervention will remain on policymakers’ agenda in coming months, especially if
the koruna remains firm, supported by rising trade surpluses. On our estimates, the
EURCZK needs to rise to be around 26.00 for inflation to rise towards the CNB target
over the medium term.

This is a risk, but we would argue that central banks are aware of the risks, particularly
Bernanke & Co, where the Fed’s references to avoiding a premature end to easing
have been clear. The lessons of 2011, when the Fed talked of exit and the ECB hiked
twice (can you credit it?) are clear. We expect a slow recovery in the US and very
limited progress in cutting unemployment queues, and with inflation low enough for the
Fed to avoid forecasting inflation anywhere near its 2.5% ‘threshold’, exit is not on the
agenda. The hawks have switched their rhetoric from fretting that QE would cause
inflation to its causing bubbles. This will not sway the key players – Bernanke, Yellen,
Dudley et al – from concentrating on the Fed’s mandate, as they feel that financial
excesses are not a risk to the mandate at present. Of course, financial asset prices
are distorted – that’s the whole point of QE. (The word ‘distort’ is not used when QE is
explained, of course, but ‘portfolio balance effects’ are just a politically correct way of
saying the same thing.)

Our view is that the Fed will continue to buy USD 85bn a month throughout this year,
before tapering off its purchases in 2014. We expect tapering to be discussed by Fed
Chairman Ben Bernanke late in Q3 and not before – the very earliest, at Jackson
Hole. This exit will need very careful handling, as it could lead to a sharp re-pricing of
Treasuries and a re-pricing of risk. However, we expect skill and finesse to be shown
and so only see a small rise in 10y Treasury yields this year – to 2.4% by end year.



Italy’s problem when it comes to sustainability is a lack of growth. The primary budget
surplus is already about as big a proportion of GDP as is reasonable to expect in the
long run, so moving to a more sustainable debt/GDP ratio (which is important, as
Bunds will not stay at 1½% forever) requires growth. That requires structural reform.
This is not going to happen under any conceivable government until after the next
election, so downgrades will be difficult to avoid.

Spain’s problem is not only growth, but more immediately, the budget deficit. At just
under 7% of GDP in 2012, it remains uncomfortably high. In an economy where many
agents are stretched
Global Economic Outlook, March 2013

Czech Republic: Disinflation risk

Leading indicators suggest the Czech economy has been bottoming out in Q1 2013.
However, the economy will continue to contract in year-on-year terms for much of the
year and, after the 1.1% drop in 2012, we expect GDP to fall by 0.4% in 2013.

The recovery hopes, as in most other Central European economies, are premised on
stronger growth in Germany later this year. The outlook for domestic demand is
extremely poor. As the labour market will continue to weaken for most of the year and
fiscal policy remains tight, we are particularly concerned about the outlook for personal
consumption for the next two to three quarters, at least.

In Q1 2013, headline inflation has slowed below 2% y/y, while monetary-policy
relevant inflation (which excludes indirect tax changes) is hovering around 1.0% y/y –
well below the CNB’s target of 2%. Despite another round of tax hikes in 2013, we do
not expect inflation to pick up this year. The absence of demand points to a further
decline in underlying inflation, while lower food and fuel inflation will also help to limit
the rise in prices this year. In fact, the weakness in personal consumption points to the
re-emergence of deflationary risks – if not for headline inflation then certainly for the
core (or monetary-policy relevant) inflation measures.

FX intervention will remain on policymakers’ agenda in coming months, especially if
the koruna remains firm, supported by rising trade surpluses. On our estimates, the
EURCZK needs to rise to be around 26.00 for inflation to rise towards the CNB target
over the medium term.

This is a risk, but we would argue that central banks are aware of the risks, particularly
Bernanke & Co, where the Fed’s references to avoiding a premature end to easing
have been clear. The lessons of 2011, when the Fed talked of exit and the ECB hiked
twice (can you credit it?) are clear. We expect a slow recovery in the US and very
limited progress in cutting unemployment queues, and with inflation low enough for the
Fed to avoid forecasting inflation anywhere near its 2.5% ‘threshold’, exit is not on the
agenda. The hawks have switched their rhetoric from fretting that QE would cause
inflation to its causing bubbles. This will not sway the key players – Bernanke, Yellen,
Dudley et al – from concentrating on the Fed’s mandate, as they feel that financial
excesses are not a risk to the mandate at present. Of course, financial asset prices
are distorted – that’s the whole point of QE. (The word ‘distort’ is not used when QE is
explained, of course, but ‘portfolio balance effects’ are just a politically correct way of
saying the same thing.)

Our view is that the Fed will continue to buy USD 85bn a month throughout this year,
before tapering off its purchases in 2014. We expect tapering to be discussed by Fed
Chairman Ben Bernanke late in Q3 and not before – the very earliest, at Jackson
Hole. This exit will need very careful handling, as it could lead to a sharp re-pricing of
Treasuries and a re-pricing of risk. However, we expect skill and finesse to be shown
and so only see a small rise in 10y Treasury yields this year – to 2.4% by end year.



Italy’s problem when it comes to sustainability is a lack of growth. The primary budget
surplus is already about as big a proportion of GDP as is reasonable to expect in the
long run, so moving to a more sustainable debt/GDP ratio (which is important, as
Bunds will not stay at 1½% forever) requires growth. That requires structural reform.
This is not going to happen under any conceivable government until after the next
election, so downgrades will be difficult to avoid.

Spain’s problem is not only growth, but more immediately, the budget deficit. At just
under 7% of GDP in 2012, it remains uncomfortably high. In an economy where many
agents are stretched

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Published by: Ivana Levá on Mar 14, 2013
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Published 14 March 2013 March 2013Global Outlook www.GlobalMarkets.bnpparibas.com
Global Outlook
Summary tables 2Summary:
Balancing act
4US rates medium-term forecasts 10Eurozone rates medium-term forecasts 11US:
A country of cross-currents
 
12Eurozone:
Fragile recovery
 
14Japan:
Revival or fiscal bust?
 
16China:
Limited upside
 
18Eurozone countriesGermany:
Growing comfortably
 
20France:
Downside risks
 
22Italy:
Political stalemate
 
24Spain:
Every little helps
 
26Netherlands:
Fixing the foundations
 
28Belgium:
Fiscal headwinds
 
29Austria:
On the mend
 
30Portugal:
One way or another 
 
31Finland:
A modest improvement
32Ireland:
Outperforming
33Greece:
Sailing in calmer waters
34Other EuropeUK:
Better, but not great
35Sweden:
Shallow rebound
37Norway:
Resilient
39Switzerland:
Risks persist
41CEEMEARussia:
Monetary stimulus ahead
42Ukraine:
In recession
44Poland:
Wait-and-see at the MPC
 
46Hungary:
More rate cuts ahead
48Czech Republic:
Disinflation risk
 
50Turkey:
End of rebalancing
52Saudi Arabia:
Slipping on oil
54United Arab Emirates:
So far so good
55Qatar:
Inflation set to rise
56Asia PacificAustralia:
Temporary relief 
57India:
Slow progress
 
59South Korea:
Low inflation
 
61Indonesia:
Risky business
63Taiwan:
Forecast table
64Other Asia:
Forecast tables
 
65The AmericasCanada:
Losing altitude
66Brazil:
Enter the (inflation) dragon
 
67Mexico:
Gearing up for a good year 
 
69Colombia:
In search of growth
71Chile:
Politics increasingly the focus
72Argentina:
Rising inflation
 
73Peru:
A bump on rapid-growth road
 
74Venezuela:
Policy paralysis
75Commodities 76Long-term economic forecasts 77Contacts 81Disclaimer Inside back cover 
 
 
Market Economics
 
March
2013Global Outlook
2
www.GlobalMarkets.bnpparibas.com
 
Summary table 1: Economic and financial forecasts
GDP
(% y/y) 10 1112
(1)
13
(1)
14
(1)
Q1 Q2 Q3Q4
(1)
Q1
(1)
Q2
(1)
Q3
(1)
Q4
(1)
World
(2)
5.2 4.0 3.1 3.1 3.6 3.6 3.4 3.2 2.9 2.7 2.7 3.0 3.2US 2.4 1.8 2.2 1.6 2.5 2.4 2.1 2.6 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.3 2.0Eurozone 2.0 1.5 -0.5 -0.5 0.8 -0.1 -0.5 -0.6 -0.9 -0.9 -0.7 -0.5 0.2Japan 4.7 -0.6 2.0 0.9 1.0 3.4 3.9 0.4 0.5 -0.6 0.2 1.8 2.3China 10.4 9.3 7.8 8.3 7.8 8.1 7.6 7.4 7.9 8.1 8.4 8.7 8.0
Industrial production
(% y/y) 10 11 1213
(1)
14
(1)
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4Q1
(1)
Q2
(1)
Q3
(1)
Q4
(1)
US 5.4 4.1 3.8 3.4 4.7 4.4 4.8 3.4 2.8 2.1 2.7 4.0 4.8Eurozone 7.2 3.4 -2.0 -0.1 3.2 -1.6 -2.3 -2.5 -3.2 -1.6 -0.8 -0.6 2.6Japan 16.4 -2.3 -0.3 1.2 2.5 4.8 5.3 -4.6 -5.9 -5.2 -1.7 4.2 8.0China 15.7 13.9 10.0 11.0 10.7 11.6 9.5 9.1 10.0 10.4 11.4 12.1 10.9
Unemployment rate
(%) 10 11 1213
(1)
14
(1)
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4Q1
(1)
Q2
(1)
Q3
(1)
Q4
(1)
US 9.6 8.9 8.1 7.7 7.2 8.3 8.2 8.0 7.8 7.8 7.8 7.7 7.6Eurozone 10.1 10.2 11.4 12.7 12.9 10.9 11.3 11.5 11.8 12.2 12.6 12.8 13.1Japan 5.1 4.6 4.4 3.8 3.7 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.0 3.8 3.8 3.7
CPI
(% y/y) 10 11 1213
(1)
14
(1)
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4Q1
(1)
Q2
(1)
Q3
(1)
Q4
(1)
US 1.6 3.2 2.1 1.9 2.0 2.8 1.9 1.7 1.9 1.8 1.8 2.0 1.9Eurozone 1.6 2.7 2.5 1.7 1.3 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.3 1.8 1.8 1.6 1.5Japan -0.7 -0.3 0.0 0.0 2.2 0.3 0.2 -0.4 -0.2 -0.6 -0.2 0.4 0.5China 3.3 5.4 2.6 3.6 3.5 3.8 2.9 1.9 2.1 2.8 3.4 3.8 4.5
Interest rates
(3)
10 11 1213
(1)
14
(1)
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4Q1
(1)
Q2
(1)
Q3
(1)
Q4
(1)
USFed funds rate (%) 0-0.25 0-0.25 0-0.25 0-0.25 0-0.25 0-0.25 0-0.25 0-0.25 0-0.25 0-0.25 0-0.25 0-0.25 0-0.253-month rate (%) 0.30 0.58 0.31 0.40 0.50 0.31 0.28 0.36 0.31 0.28 0.40 0.40 0.4010-year rate (%) 3.29 1.88 1.76 2.40 2.80 2.21 1.64 1.63 1.76 2.05 2.00 2.20 2.40EurozoneRefinancing rate 1.00 1.00 0.75 0.50 0.50 1.00 1.00 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.50 0.50 0.503-month rate (%) 1.01 1.36 0.19 0.10 0.15 0.78 0.65 0.22 0.19 0.20 0.10 0.10 0.1010-year rate (%)
(4)
2.96 1.83 1.31 1.30 1.90 1.41 1.60 1.44 1.31 1.52 1.50 1.40 1.30JapanO/N call rate 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.103-month rate (%) 0.34 0.33 0.30 0.25 0.25 0.29 0.26 0.33 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.25 0.2510-year rate (%) 1.12 0.99 0.75 0.80 1.60 0.99 0.84 0.77 0.75 0.60 0.40 0.60 0.80ChinaOfficial interest rate (%) 5.81 6.56 6.00 6.00 6.25 6.56 6.31 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00
FX rates
(3)
10 11 1213
(1)
14
(1)
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4Q1
(1)
Q2
(1)
Q3
(1)
Q4
(1)
EURUSD 1.34 1.29 1.32 1.33 1.25 1.33 1.27 1.29 1.32 1.33 1.35 1.35 1.33USDJPY 81 77 78 90 100 83 80 78 78 95 95 90 90USDRMB 6.59 6.29 6.23 6.05 6.03 6.30 6.35 6.29 6.23 6.20 6.15 6.08 6.05EURJPY 109 100 104 120 125 110 101 100 104 126 128 122 120EURGBP 0.86 0.83 0.81 0.85 0.76 0.83 0.81 0.80 0.81 0.88 0.88 0.87 0.85GBPUSD 1.56 1.55 1.63 1.56 1.64 1.60 1.57 1.62 1.63 1.50 1.53 1.55 1.56
Current accountBudget balance
Year 
(% GDP)
10 11 1213
(1)
14
(1)
(% GDP)
10 1112
(1)
13
(1)
14
(1)
US -3.0 -3.0 -3.0 -2.5 -2.4US
(5)
0.0 -8.7 -7.0 -5.5 -4.4Eurozone 0.0 0.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 Eurozone -6.2 -4.1 -3.7 -2.7 -2.2Japan 3.7 2.0 1.0 0.6 0.5 Japan -8.3 -8.7 -9.1 -8.7 -7.6China 3.9 2.7 2.6 2.7 2.8 China -2.5 -1.9 -1.5 -2.1 -2.120122012201220122013
(3) End period (4) Bund yield (5) Fiscal year Figures are y/y percentage change unless otherwise indicated 
20122012
Footnotes: (1) Forecast (2) BNPP estimates based on country weights in the IMF 
World Economic Outlook Update, October 2012
2013Year Year Year 2013201320132013Year Year Year Year 
Source: BNP Paribas

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