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The Impact of Music Downloads and P2P File-Sharing on thePurchase of Music: A Study for Industry Canada
 byBirgitte Andersen* and Marion Frenz**Department of ManagementBirkbeck, University of LondonMalet Street, BloomsburyLONDON WC1E 7HX, England, UK *Reader in the Economics and Management of Innovation, andDirector of E-Business ProgrammesTel: +44 (0)20 7631 6848 b.andersen@bbk.ac.uk ** Lecturer in ManagementTel: +44 (0)20 7631 6829m.frenz@bbk.ac.uk 
THE VIEWS EXPRESSED ARE THOSE OF THE AUTHORS. NO RESPONSIBILITY FOR THEMSHOULD BE ATTRIBUTED TO INDUSTRY CANADA.
 
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Table of contents
Abstract..........................................................................................................................31. Introduction................................................................................................................42. Hypotheses: theoretical focus and empirical review.................................................73. Data and methodology.............................................................................................164. Results......................................................................................................................265. Summary of findings................................................................................................33References....................................................................................................................35Tables...........................................................................................................................37Appendices...................................................................................................................47
 
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Abstract
The primary objective of this paper is to determine how the downloading of musicfiles through Internet peer-to-peer (P2P) networks influences music purchasing inCanada. P2P networks permit members to transfer digitally-stored information to oneanother over the Internet; popular examples include BearShare, LimeWire and eMule.Using representative survey data from the Canadian population collected by DecimaResearch on behalf of Industry Canada, we attempt to quantify this economicrelationship, while accounting for other factors that influence music purchasing. Weundertake a variety of econometric estimations for the population of Canadians whoengage in P2P file-sharing (P2P “downloaders”), as well as for the whole Canadian population. To our knowledge, this is the first study on P2P file-sharing that analyzesoriginal and representative microeconomic survey data from the Canadian population.Few previous studies have analyzed representative microeconomic data, for Canadaor any other country.The existing literature identifies two competing effects associated with the P2P musicfile-sharing: the sampling and substitution effects. The sampling effect ischaracterized both by individuals downloading music in order to listen to it before buying it as well as by individuals downloading music that is not available in stores,while the substitution effect is characterized by individuals downloading musicinstead of purchasing it. In this paper, we further disentangle the sampling effect byadding a market segmentation effect, characterized by individuals engaging in P2Pfile-sharing because they do not want to purchase the entire bundle of songs on a CD.Our review of existing econometric studies suggests that P2P file-sharing tends todecrease music purchasing. However, we find the opposite, namely that P2P file-sharing tends to increase rather than decrease music purchasing.Among Canadians who engage in P2P file-sharing, our results suggest that for every12 P2P downloaded songs, music purchases increase by 0.44 CDs. That is,downloading the equivalent of approximately one CD increases purchasing by abouthalf of a CD. We are unable to find evidence of any relationship between P2P file-sharing and purchases of electronically-delivered music tracks (e.g., songs fromiTunes). With respect to the other effects, roughly half of all P2P tracks weredownloaded because individuals wanted to hear songs before buying them or becausethey wanted to avoid purchasing the whole bundle of songs on the associated CDs androughly one quarter were downloaded because they were not available for purchase.Our results indicate that only the effect capturing songs downloaded because theywere not available for purchase influenced music purchasing, a 1 percent increase insuch downloads being associated with nearly a 4 percent increase in CD purchases.We find evidence that purchases of other forms of entertainment such as cinema andconcert tickets, and video games tend to increase with music purchases. It has beenargued in the literature that the increase in the number of entertainment substitutes hasled to a decline in music purchasing, but our results do not support this hypothesis.As expected, we find that reported interest in music is very strongly associated withmusic purchases. Finally, our results suggest that household income is not importantin explaining music purchases.
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