**A2 Random Args & Thumpers** A2 Climate Control

Its an XO knows it wont pass in congress. Lean 2/14- Environmental Correspondent (Geoffrey, Obama is Going to Combat Climate
Change with or without Congress, 2/14/13, http://www.businessinsider.com/obama-executiveorder-climate-change-2013-2, Busines Insider)
He then made it a centrepiece of his inauguration address last month. And this week he devoted a sizeable chunk of his State of the Union address to promising he will act soon to protect future generations. As mentioned here before, the US President privately regards the lack of effective action on climate change to be his biggest first-term failure and, prodded by his daughters, has thought long and hard about the issue since winning his new one. He understands that this is the central problem his administration has to deal with in the second term John Podesta,- a former Clinton White House Chief of Staff, who led Obama's transition team four years ago told Rolling Stone magazine. He knows the judgment of history

is riding on this. But he has a substantial problem the Republican controlled House of Representatives, which is less inclined to cooperate over climate change than on any other issue, partly because an uncompromising rejection of global warming helps attract funding from oil-rich tycoons. So it was particularly interesting that he radically switched strategy in this week's address. Whereas in the first year he waited for Congress to take the initiative he is now warning that he will act if it fails to do so. He gave notice that in his address that he would effectively bypass Capitol Hill, directing his cabinet to come up with executive actions we can take, now and in the future, to reduce pollution, prepare our communities for the consequences of climate change, and speed the transition to more sustainable sources of energy.

Obama not pushing climate change now no bill available. Bump 12/15- Policy analyst (Philip, Hot Air from Obama on Climate Change?, Mother Jones,
2/15/13, http://www.motherjones.com/environment/2013/02/obamas-empty-threat-to-act-onclimate-change)
Some good news for congressional Republicans: The presidents threat to take unilateral

action on climate isn't looking all that threatening. White House officials are talking about small steps the administration could take, but aren't currently pushing forward on the big executive action that advocates have wanted to see: EPA regulation
of greenhouse gases from existing power plants. During Tuesday night's State of the Union address, the president issued a challenge to Congress to act on climate change. He pointed at previous efforts to pass market-based, cap-and-trade legislation as an example. "If Congress wont act soon to protect future generations" from the threat of climate change, he warned, "I will." Prior to the speech, there was some speculation that Obama might announce support for carbon regulations on existing power plants. Last week, the EPA reported that such facilities are the primary source of greenhouse gas emissions in the U.S., which means new rules for the plants would be a powerful step in fighting climate change. The EPA has had the power to impose such regulations for a while, but has so far only proposed measures limiting emissions from brand-new power plants. A threat to regulate old plants, many of which have been belching out carbon and particulate pollution for decades, could be potent. "We're not in a position to say, 'These are the 15 things we're going to do,'" Zichal said, "but I think the point here is that we have demonstrated an ability to really use our existing authoritypermitting-wise, what we can do through the budgetto make progress." She noted that the administration has opened up federal land to renewable-energy development and reduced greenhouse gas emissions from the government itself. And don't forget the work done to improve the energy efficiency of walk-in freezers and battery chargers. Which is all finebut it seems unlikely that Congress will feel is it forced to address the

problem when faced with the prospect of Obama mandating even tighter efficiency standards for commercial appliances. What about existing power plants, I asked? Why wasn't
that mentioned? "The president demonstrated last night that his preference, his stated goal, is that he would welcome an opportunity to work with Congress on a bipartisan, market-based approach to reducing greenhouse gas emissions," Zichal replied. "Whether or not that's a reality certainly remains a question." (No, it really doesn't.) Zichal repeated Obama's commitment to the issue, and then said, "At

this point in time, it would be a little premature to put the cart before the horse on

existing sources, because we have yet to even finalize the proposal on new." As for why they hadn't finalized the standard for new power plants, Zichal noted that the EPA has been wading through more than 2 million public commentsmany of which
were solicited by activist groups to encourage action, not delay it. Zichal did note that many of the comments they'd received were "largely supportive." She also said that industry had not voiced strong opposition to the standard for new plants.

A2 Debt Ceiling/Sequestration
This is a neg arg --- the fight will drain the Republicans more, increasing the chances of immigration. The Columbian, 1-6-2013, p. www.columbian.com/news/2013/jan/06/immigration-reform-in-13/
Fortunately, there is the reasonable hope that immigration reform could be addressed again this year, despite the widespread belief that this Congress will be no more productive than the last one. Recently on NBC's "Meet the Press," President Obama said he is serious about immigration reform and will introduce an immigration reform bill this year. Perhaps this is the year that progress can be made toward changing our nation's bizarre and haphazard approach to dealing with illegal immigrants. In a Wednesday editorial, the Dallas Morning News astutely pointed to former President George W. Bush's noble and valid attempt to change immigration laws back in 2006. Bush's efforts failed, the newspaper said, "because Senate Republicans balked. But the opposition didn't stop the Bush White House from fully engaging Congress, including recalcitrant Republicans. Obama may have a similar problem with his own party. The dirty little secret in the 2006 and 2007 immigration battles was that some Democrats were content to let Senate Republicans kill the effort. Labor-friendly Democrats didn't want a bill, either. And they may not want one this year. That reluctance is a major reason the president needs to invest in this fight. He must figure out how to bring enough Democrats along, while also reaching out to Republicans."

One possible tactic: Exhaust the combatants . Get the extremist conservatives and the far-left liberals so fatigued from fiscal fights, and they might just be more receptive to immigration reform.

Immigration will be first, despite debt ceiling. American Thinker, 1-3-2013, p.

www.americanthinker.com/blog/2013/01/despite_looming_debt_ceiling_fight_gun_control_immigr ation_reform_on_obamas_agenda.html
Apparently, the president isn't going to let his agenda get bogged down in fights over the debt ceiling and sequestration that hang over the heads of congressmen the first quarter of the year: The timeframe is likely to be cheered by Democrats and immigration reform advocates alike, who have privately expressed fears that Obama's second term will be drowned out in seemingly unending showdowns between parties. The just-completed fiscal cliff deal is giving way to a twomonth deadline to resolve delayed sequestration cuts, an expiring continuing resolution to fund the government and a debt ceiling that will soon be hit. With those bitter battles ahead, the possibility of passing other complicated legislation would seem diminished. "The negative effect of this fiscal cliff fiasco is that every time we become engaged in one of these fights, there's no oxygen for anything else," said a Senate Democratic aide, who asked for anonymity to speak candidly. "It's not like you can be multi-tasking -- with something like this, Congress just comes to a complete standstill." It remains unclear what type of immigration policies the White House plans to push in January, but turning them into law could be a long process. Aides expect it will take about two months to write a bipartisan bill, then another few months before it goes up for a vote, possibly in June. A bipartisan group of senators are already working on a deal, although they are still in the early stages. Rep. Zoe Lofgren (D-Calif.) will likely lead on the Democratic side in the House. While many Republicans have expressed interest in piecemeal reform, it's still unclear which of them plan to join the push.

Debt ceiling fight wont cost Obama capital --- wont be involved, Republicans will cave, and even if hes involved, it wont affect him. Washington Post, 1-4-2013, p. www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2013/01/04/thedebt-ceiling-isnt-obamas-problem-its-the-gops-problem/
Obama and Dems have vowed not to negotiate with the GOP over the debt ceiling.
This morning, I asked what not negotiating would look like in the real world, and whether its even possible. But another question may be even more relevant: Do Republicans really have the

leverage in the debt ceiling fight they think they have? Some Republicans are now coming out and acknowledging that the GOP may not be in a strong position in the debt ceiling battle, after all. Heres Newt Gingrich, on Morning Joe today, telling Republicans that a debt ceiling fight is a loser for them: Theyve got to find, in the House, a totally new strategy. Everybodys now talking about, Oh, here comes the debt ceiling. I think thats, frankly, a dead loser. Because in the end, you know its gonna happen. The whole national financial system is going to
come in to Washington and on television, and say: Oh my God, this will be a gigantic heart attack, the entire economy of the world will collapse. You guys will be held responsible. And theyll cave. And heres the Wall Street Journal editorial page, warning against it in similar terms: Mr. Obama will say Republicans are risking national default and recession, most of Wall Street will echo him, and the Treasury will maneuver to apply maximum political pressure for example, by claiming it cant pay Social Security benefits. Well support efforts to cut spending and reform entitlements, but the political result will be far worse if Republicans start this fight only to cave in the end. You cant take a hostage you arent prepared to shoot. This gets right to the heart of the matter, which is this: Are Republicans really prepared to let the country go into default and take the blame for crashing the economy? Sure, maybe some Tea Party Republicans are, but if GOP leaders arent, and the next compromise can be passed through the House with mostly Democratic votes, then all of a sudden the G OP position doesnt look so strong, after all. And so maybe the question of what not negotiating on the debt ceiling

looks like has a simpler answer than you might think: The White House just treats this as Congress problem . You can see that framing already in this comment from the White House today (emphasis mine): It is quite clear that the economy will be better if Congress does its job and does what it routinely has done historically which is raise the debt limit without problem. Its true that in one way, the White House will inevitably be negotiating on the debt ceiling, in the sense that it will be engaged in talks over the
sequester, tax reform, and spending cuts that Republicans will insist must be resolved before they agree to raise it. But as Ezra Klein notes, this doesnt necessarily mean the White House has to be

held hostage over the debt ceiling , and its really quite possible that in the end, Republicans will opt to agree to a somewhat balanced deal rather than risk taking the
blame for cratering the economy.

Obama wont invest capital in the debt ceiling.

Howard Kurtz, Daily Beast, 1-1-13, Obama Fiscal Cliff Victory Could Invite Years of Warfare With the GOP, www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2013/01/01/obama-fiscal-cliff-victory-could-inviteyears-of-warfare-with-the-gop.print.html
Obama also signaled that when push comes to shove, when the final deadline is at hand, he will retreat from his line-in-the-sand position, although the White House would call it
reasonable compromise that spared most people a nasty tax hike. Still, this was his moment of greatest political leverage. And now that the messy and embarrassing slog over the tax issue has been resolved, the playing field will be more favorable to Republicans in 2013. The administration has little left to trade now that the debate will focus on the $110 billion in automatic spending cuts that Tuesdays voting delayed for two months. Even more troublesome, from the White House point of view, is that Republicans can again play the debt ceiling card, as they did in the summer of 2011. The threat of a government default in late February will bring enormous pressure on the president to reach an accommodation on spending cuts, just as the fiscal cliff essentially forced the Republicans to sacrifice wealthier taxpayers to avoid blame for higher levies on 98 percent of Americans. After the House vote, Obama served notice

that he does not want to be drawn into another game of fiscal chicken over the debt ceiling. "While I will negotiate over many things," he said, "I will not have another debate with this Congress over whether or not they should pay the bills that theyve already racked up through the laws that they passed."

Immigration first, and thats what Obama will spend capital on.
Tom Kludt, "Report: Obama to Make Push for Immigration Reform this Month," TPM LIVEWIRE, 1--3--13, http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entry/report-obama-to-make-push-forimmigration-reform

President Barack Obama is prepared to use his political capital to pursue immigration reform this month, according to a report published Wednesday in the Huffington Post. The report cited an anonymous official in the Obama administration, who suggested that the president is unlikely to

be deterred by the protracted fiscal cliff debate that will be revisited in the coming months. As such, the administration will reportedly move quickly on both immigration reform and gun control.

A2 Gun Control
No gun control push Obama only wants a vote, constituents oppose broad based gun control.
Jon Lender, Obamas Candid Admission of Defeat on Gun Control, THE HARTFORD COURANT, 2-16-2013, http://www.courant.com/news/politics/hc-guns-congress-newtown20130216,0,6142239,full.story.
The most powerful moment in President Barack Obama's State of the Union address last Tuesday came when he told members of Congress that the victims of the Dec. 14 Newtown school massacre and other killings "deserve a vote" on his legislative proposals to curb gun violence. "The families of Newtown deserve a vote. The families of Aurora deserve a
vote," Obama said, to tumultuous applause. "If you want to vote no, that's your choice. But these proposals deserve a vote." Supporters of gun control hailed the ringing call for action and said Newtown has given historic momentum to the effort to pass federal firearms restrictions but not every advocate found

encouragement in the president's words. If Obama thought he had the votes to get his legislation through Congress, he might have mentioned specific proposals in his speech which he didn't and probably would have pushed harder for passage than merely asking that they come to a vote, Moffett said in an interview two days after Obama's speech. Lacking the needed votes, the best Obama could do was try to get opponents to go on the record as voting "no," Moffett said because, in his view, it will probably take a sustained effort for years to overcome the powerful opposition to stronger gun restrictions, and a big part of that will be "to make votes against gun control into a political liability." The way to begin that process is to "start taking names," he said. Moffett talked by phone from Washington, D.C., where he has been a lobbyist most of
the time since 1983, when he ended eight years as a liberal Democratic member of the U.S. House representing the former 6th District in central Connecticut. He has been giving free strategic advice on gun control to church leaders since the Newtown massacre. "This is a multi-year fight, and a generational fight, and it's going to take time," he argued. By "generational," he said he meant that when a new generation of younger people come to think about an issue differently which takes time it is easier to change long-entrenched attitudes and laws. An analogy is what happened with same-sex marriage, he said. Moffett said he is close with a number of Democratic members of Congress who support gun-control, and they tell him candidly that initial constituent

comments in favor of gun restrictions after Dec. 14 had been replaced weeks later by "mail and emails all running against doing anything." "Thank goodness that we have
a President who issued 29 executive orders" last month to impose gun restrictions, Moffett said . "Within those executive orders there are a lot of good things about stepped-up enforcement. Now it has to be followed by funding, and so Obama's challenge, with the budget being as tight as it is, is to try to shift money over to the appropriate enforcement, and beefed-up background checks, and the other things he can do under those executive orders."

Obama not spending PC on gun control push is ONLY rhetorical, State of the Union proves.
Lara Brown, Assistant Professor of Political Science, Villano va University, State of the Union Was an Appeal for Gun Control Votes, Not Laws, US NEWS AND WORLD REPORT, 2-132013, http://www.usnews.com/debate-club/did-obamas-state-of-the-union-gun-rhetoriceffectively-sell-gun-control-to-congress/state-of-the-union-was-an-appeal-for-gun-control-votesnot-laws.
"Now, if you want to vote no, that's your choice," said President Obama last night. This logical qualification was an admission that the legislative fight over new federal gun control regulations has already been lost. [See a collection of political cartoons on gun control and gun rights.] The president does not have the votes to pass his gun control proposals and he knows it. He understands that the Republican House is waiting on the Democratic Senate to act. He understands that the Democrats in the Senate are split

between moderates from progun states and liberals from both coasts. And he knows that the Republicans in the Senate aren't going to come to his rescue. Simply put, there are no arms to twist and there are no deals to cut because there is no policy consensus. With the exception of expanded background checks, substantive gun control measures are not likely to be enacted now or at any time during the president's term. That's why Obama's appeals were aimed at having votes. Votes, not laws. As
seemingly minimal a request as this was, Obama went out on a limb. He was asking his fellow Democrats in the Senate to risk their 2014 electoral prospects for his historical legacy. It's one thing to try and fail; it's another to not seemingly have tried at all. [Photos: President Obama's 2013 State of the Union Address] No longer a political novice, Obama pulled out all of the emotional stops in his speech. Still, as a former member of the Senate, he should know that change moves more slowly in that chamber than in any other part of the federal government. However heartfelt his sentiments and passionate his pleas,

the numbers60 senators to get legislation to a vote and 20 Democratic seats up in 2014don't work in his favor. He knows. He understands. Rhetoric was all he had left.

Obamas rhetoric on gun control is disconnected from legislation only wants a vote.
Jamie Chandler, Professor of Political Science, Hunter College, Obamas Speech Showed Concessions on Gun Control, US NEWS AND WORLD REPORT, 2-13-2013, http://www.usnews.com/debate-club/did-obamas-state-of-the-union-gun-rhetoric-effectively-sellgun-control-to-congress/obamas-speech-showed-concessions-on-gun-control.
President Obama's State of the Union gun control rhetoric will fail to compel Congress to

pass his "now is the time" plan to reduce gun violence. Rather, the words he used showed concession to the reality of American gun politics. Second Amendment advocates
have already won the debate. The president's rhetoric was emotionally moving. He showed skillful use of the rhetorical technique of antistrophe. His repetitive use of the phrase "they deserve a vote" moved the crowd to standing ovation, and engaged the shooting victims' families seated in the chamber. Those people are the real faces behind what may otherwise be perceived by most of the public as existential tragedies. If our representatives deliberate the president's plan, those faces will be in their thoughts. [Check out our editorial cartoons on President Obama.] But as much as the president succeeded in

emphasizing the human cost of gun violence, "they deserve a vote" does nothing to push Congress to make his proposals law. "They deserve a vote" concedes that the president doesn't believe he'll win this battle. That strong commitment he so forcefully mustered a few weeks ago when he signed his gun control executive orders has dissipated. "They deserve a vote" makes the vote the goal, not passage. If the president is indeed committed to navigating the hard road ahead, his command should have been "pass this law."

No gun control thumper gun control and immigration running on parallel, complimentary tracks.
Brian Bennett, Staff Writer, The lingering tax fight and the renewed debate on gun control may push the immigration effort into the spring, LA TIMES, 12-30-2012, http://articles.latimes.com/2012/dec/30/nation/la-na-immigration-20121230.
WASHINGTON The window to pass immigration laws next year is narrowing as the effort competes with a renewed debate over gun laws and the lingering fight over taxes and the budget, according to congressional staffers and outside advocates. Key congressional committees are preparing for a package of gun control laws to be negotiated and possibly introduced in Congress during the first few months of next year. The shift would push the debate in Congress over immigration reform into the spring. Ads by Google But as budget negotiations continue to stir tensions between Republicans and Democrats, and as lobbyists take to their corners over gun laws, some are concerned that the heated atmosphere could spoil the early signs of bipartisan cooperation on immigration that emerged after the election. In phone calls over the holidays, White House officials sought to reassure advocates that the push for gun

control won't distract President Obama from his promise to stump for new immigration legislation early in the year. The uncertainty is feeding jitters that Obama may be
unable to deliver on his long-standing promise to create a path to citizenship for the 11 million people in the

U.S. unlawfully. "I am concerned that an issue such as immigration where we can find strong bipartisan consensus will be demagogued and politicized, because that is the environment," said Alfonso Aguilar, a Republican strategist at the Latino Partnership for Conservative Principles, a Washington-based nonprofit. New gun laws would probably have to pass through the Senate Judiciary Committee, the same committee that would work on an immigration bill that could be hundreds of pages long. The tough work of hammering out a compromise over immigration in the committee would best be wrapped up by the end of June, congressional staffers said, in case one of the Supreme Court justices retires, which would set up a highprofile and time-consuming nomination process that could overshadow the immigration issue. " Voters want to see action," said Clarissa Martinez de Castro, head of civic engagement and immigration for the National Council of La Raza. "If the American public every day has to grapple with

multiple priorities, that is the least they expect from their members of Congress."
After the Dec. 14 school shooting that killed 20 children and six adults in Newtown, Conn., Obama tapped Vice President Joe Biden to head a task force that is expected to propose new gun control measures by the end of January. "The question is: Would the Congress love to have something come along that would sidetrack immigration reform? I believe there are some members of Congress who would like that," said Eliseo Medina, secretary-treasurer of the Service Employees International Union, which represents more than 2 million workers. "But the fact is, they won't have the luxury of ignoring it," he said. The crowded agenda has not changed plans by advocacy groups to launch a nationwide publicity and lobbying campaign early next year to put pressure on lawmakers to support changing immigration laws. " As horrific as the

tragedy was in Connecticut, in the grand scheme of things, these issues can run on parallel tracks," said Mary Giovagnoli, director of the Immigration Policy Center, a think tank based in Washington. "They are not in competition; they are complementary," said Angela Kelley, an expert on immigration at the Center for American Progress, a liberal think tank
in Washington. "The White House can walk and chew gum, as can lawmakers." "If [lawmakers] are working 40 hours a week, they should be able to get both done," she said.

Wont even come to the floor for a vote.

Kevin Bogardus, Barrasso: Senate vote on Obama gun-control proposals unlikely, THE HILL, 1-20-2013, http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/278207-barrasso-senate-vote-onobama-gun-control-proposals-unlikely.
Sen. John Barrasso (R-Wyo.) said Sunday that he does not believe President Obamas gun-control proposals will be brought to the Senate floor for a vote. Speaking on CNNs State of the Union, Barrasso said election worries among Democrats will sideline legislation that could restrict gun ownership. Obama has called on Congress to institute universal background checks for all gun sales as well as bans on assault weapons and high-capacity magazines, among other items. I dont think Sen. Harry Reid [D-Nev.] even brings it to the

Senate floor because he has six Democrats up for election in two years in states where the president received fewer than 42 percent of the votes, Barrasso said. He doesnt want his Democrats to have to choose between their own constituents and the presidents positions.

Obama not pushing independent gun control legislation. Wilkie and Bendery 2-15 (Christina and Jennifer, Staff Writers, Huffington Post,
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/02/15/obama-chicago_n_2697856.html, accessed: 15 February 2013)
WASHINGTON -- In a broad and moving speech Friday, President Barack Obama described gun violence as only one part of a web of economic and social challenges facing the nation. He proposed new strategies, focusing on strengthening families, creating educational opportunities and reviving the nation's hardest-hit communities. Speaking before students and faculty of Hyde Park Academy, in the Woodlawn neighborhood of Chicago, Obama began by recognizing victims of gun violence, including those killed in the Sandy Hook Elementary School shooting and Hadiya Pendleton, the 15-year-old from Chicago who was killed just days after she performed with her high school band at Obama's inauguration festivities. "What happened to Hadiya is not unique," the president said. "It's not unique to Chicago, and it's not unique to this country. Too many of our children are being taken away from us." Nevertheless, Obama said, "No law or set of laws can prevent every senseless act of violence ... When a child opens fire on another child, there is a hole in that child's heart that government can't fill." The president's speeches on gun violence have started to

feel routine as he travels around the country advocating for his gun safety package. But Friday's speech had a different feel to it: Obama veered into more personal territory and talked about growing up
without a father -- a situation that he said reflected the reality of many of today's youth. "As the son of a single mom who gave everything she had to raise me, with the help of my grandparents, I turned out OK," he said, calling single moms "heroic" and worthy of praise. But he added, "At the same time, I wish I'd had a father who was around and involved." The president said there are neighborhoods all over the country where young people don't see adults succeeding and where they come to think the future "only extends to the end of the street corner or the outskirts of town." Young boys and young men, in particular, "don't see an example of fathers or grandfathers, uncles, who are in a position to support families and be held up and respected," Obama continued. Yet the biggest factor in determining a child's success -- and preventing a child from sliding into a life of crime -- is having a "loving, supportive family," he said. "And by the way, that's all kinds of parents. That includes foster parents, that includes grandparents, extended families. That includes gay or straight parents," Obama added to applause. "Those parents supporting kids, that's the single most important thing. Unconditional love for your child, that makes a difference." So when it

comes to tackling gun violence, the best place to start is within individual communities and families, he said. "This is not just a gun issue," Obama declared. "It's also an issue of the kinds of communities that we're building. And for that, we all share
responsibility as citizens to fix it. We all share a responsibility to move this country closer to our founding vision: that no matter who you are or where you come from, here in America you can decide your own destiny." Obama emphasized that violence prevention and community development are only possible, however, if those who work in low-wage jobs can find economic stability. Too many parents, he said, cannot support their children on what they earn from minimum-wage jobs. "That's why we should raise the minimum wage to $9, and make it a wage you can live on."

Immigration first TREND, "U.S. President Puts Immigration Reform at Top of 2013 Agenda," 12--31--12,
http://en.trend.az/regions/world/usa/2104727.html
US President Barack Obama Sunday named immigration reform as his top priority in the coming year, and vowed he will introduce legislation in 2013 "to get it done", DPA reported. In a rare Sunday talk show interview, Obama put the issue at the top of three issues that he will turn his attention to after the White House and Congress have solved the looming fiscal cliff crisis. "I've said that fixing our broken immigration system is a top priority," Obama said. "I think we have talked about it long enough. We know how we can fix it. We can do it in a comprehensive way that the American people support." During the 2012 election year,Obama put through an executive order that opened the door for immigrant children who have grown up in the United States to apply for extended legal resident status. The move was credited with renewing lagging support for Obama in the Latino community before the November elections. But without legislative action, that order could be cancelled by a future president. Obama said his other priorities were stabilizing the economy through deficit reduction and infrastructure spending, and turning the United States into an exporter of energy. Asked about his vow to push through changes in gun regulation after the Newtown, Connecticut, school massacre, Obama said the national conversation was just starting and he was waiting for the special commission chaired by Vice President Joe Biden to come in with proposals in January.

Biden pushes the gun bill, not Obama Favole 12/19 (Jared, reporter, 12/19/12, Obama Backs Push For New Gun Laws Wall Street
Journal) http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324461604578188680585236550.html
Mr. Biden could be essential to getting any changes to gun and mental-health laws

through Congress, as he has decades of experience as a senator and often is Mr. Obama's go-to person to build support on Capitol Hill. Mr. Obama said he also chose Mr.
Biden because he wrote a 1994 crime bill that led to a drop in violence.

Biden will get it through Kaster 12/30 (Carolyn, reporter, 12/30/12, Biden and NRA Butt Heads The Daily Beast)
http://www.thedailybeast.com/cheats/2012/12/30/biden-and-nra-butt-heads.html

Were all watching, Joe. After the Newtown, Conn., massacre, Vice President Joe Biden will attempt to push through legislation on gun control by Jan. 15 that would reinstate his expired ban on assault weapons. Biden, who clashed with a voter who displayed semiautomatic rifle in a video question at a 2007 presidential-primary debate, has been vocal in his fight with the NRA. Those in favor of restrictions say theres no better man than Biden, whos been fighting for 30 years. The NRA says hes a ideologue who isnt fit to have a
conversation on guns. Biden owns two shotguns.

Gun control wont divert attention from immigration reform. LA Times, 12-30-2012, p. articles.latimes.com/2012/dec/30/nation/la-na-immigration20121230?utm_source=E-mail+Updates&utm_campaign=73c6e86edaCIS_Daily_Immigration_News_1_2_131_2_2013&utm_medium=email
The window to pass immigration laws next year is narrowing as the effort competes with a renewed debate over gun laws and the lingering fight over taxes and the budget,
according to congressional staffers and outside advocates. Key congressional committees are preparing for a package of gun control laws to be negotiated and possibly introduced in Congress during the first few months of next year. The shift would push the debate in Congress over immigration reform into the spring. But as budget negotiations continue to stir tensions between Republicans and Democrats, and as lobbyists take to their corners over gun laws, some are concerned that the heated atmosphere could spoil the early signs of bipartisan cooperation on immigration that emerged after the election. In phone calls over the holidays, White House officials sought to reassure advocates that the push for gun control won't distract President Obama from his promise to stump for new immigration legislation early in the year. The uncertainty is feeding jitters that Obama may be unable to deliver on his long-standing promise to create a path to citizenship for the 11 million people in the U.S. unlawfully. "I am concerned that an issue such as immigration where we can find strong bipartisan consensus will be demagogued and politicized, because that is the environment," said Alfonso Aguilar, a Republican strategist at the Latino Partnership for Conservative Principles, a Washington-based nonprofit. New gun laws would probably have to pass through the Senate Judiciary Committee, the same committee that would work on an immigration bill that could be hundreds of pages long. The tough work of hammering out a compromise over immigration in the committee would best be wrapped up by the end of June, congressional staffers said, in case one of the Supreme Court justices retires, which would set up a highprofile and time-consuming nomination process that could overshadow the immigration issue. "Voters want to see action," said Clarissa Martinez de Castro, head of civic engagement and immigration for the National Council of La Raza. "If the American public every day has to grapple with multiple priorities, that is the least they expect from their members of Congress." After the Dec. 14 school shooting that killed 20 children and six adults in Newtown, Conn., Obama tapped Vice President Joe Biden to head a task force that is expected to propose new gun control measures by the end of January. "The question is: Would the Congress love to have something come along that would sidetrack immigration reform? I believe there are some members of Congress who would like that," said Eliseo Medina, secretary-treasurer of the Service Employees International Union, which represents more than 2 million workers. "But the fact is, they won't have the luxury of ignoring it," he said. The crowded agenda has not changed plans by advocacy groups to launch a nationwide publicity and lobbying campaign early next year to put pressure on lawmakers to support changing immigration laws. "As horrific as the tragedy was in Connecticut, in the grand scheme of things, these issues can run on parallel tracks," said Mary Giovagnoli, director of the Immigration Policy Center, a think tank based in Washington. "They are not in competition; they are complementary," said Angela Kelley, an expert on immigration at the Center for American Progress, a liberal think tank in Washington. "The White House can walk and chew gum, as can lawmakers."

Gun control wont derail push for immigration reform. Financial Times, 1-2-2013, p. www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/e6b2805c-4ac9-11e2-929d00144feab49a.html#axzz2Gs6PlVXz
The White House is building a coalition of allies, including labour unions and Hispanic groups, to help generate support for comprehensive immigration reform, capitalising on the
grassroots network that helped President Barack Obama defeat Republican Mitt Romney in November.

Although the continued fiscal uncertainty is taking precedence and gun control has

been catapulted to the top of the agenda, preparations to launch an allencompassing immigration bill are proceeding apace.

A2 Hagel Nomination
Hagel will pass on an up-or-down vote only PC hit taken by McCain and the GOP.
Mark Shields and Michael Gerson, Syndicated Political Columnist and Washington Post Political Columnist, Shields and Gerson Discuss GOP Hold Up on Hagel, Looming Sequester, PBS NEWSHOUR, 2-15-2013, http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/politics/janjune13/shieldsgerson_02-15.html.
Chuck Hagel's problem here is, first of all, that he has some problematic views, from a Republican perspective, on Iran, Israel and what he calls the Jewish lobby. He also didn't do well in his own confirmation hearing, looked dazed and confused in his own -- and made some serious gaffes. All that said, this is just a delay in the vote. John McCain has -- and others have promised to support an up-or-down vote on Hagel. He will be confirmed, which I think is an affirmation the president generally gets his choice for a nominee, even if they are a second-rate nominee. JUDY WOODRUFF: Does somebody pay the price, though, for all this? MARK SHIELDS: Yes. No, I think -- I think that John McCain has paid a price already this week. Judy, he said at the beginning of the week that Chuck Hagel had answered all the queries that were put before him. Then he berated Ted Cruz for -- the senator from Texas, for suggesting that Hagel may have had some money from North Korea, or Iran, with absolutely -- or Saudi Arabia -- with absolutely no basis in fact. I mean, now the charge, and Republicans have been talking about this and answering questions about it, that the Friends of Hamas have endorsed Chuck Hagel. I mean, there is no Friends of Hamas. Nobody can find them. There is no such organization. And Rand Paul is saying, if this is true, it is a very serious thing. It is a terrible, terrible chapter. Bill Cohen, Republican secretary of defense ... JUDY WOODRUFF: Terrible for whom? MARK SHIELDS: For the country, and -- but for the Republican Party. They are going through a terrible exercise. JUDY WOODRUFF: Do you agree the Republicans are hurt over this episode? MICHAEL GERSON: I think in the short term, not the long term.

Hagel wont be a fight---DC press analysis doesnt reflect reality

Josh Marshall 1-6, editor of Talking Points Memo, 1/6/13, Crack Pipe, http://talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/2013/01/crack_pipe_1.php
Im watching a lot of neoconservative policy activists and a lot of people in the press telling me that its a very up in the air thing whether Chuck Hagel gets confirmed as Secretary of Defense. These folks should stop smoking crack. Because crack isnt good for you.
Maybe Im just out of the loop because Im not reporting aggressively myself. Or maybe I think much more likely Im not in the same crack den with the rest of these good people so the air Im breathing is clear and I know what is happening in the real world. Will Republicans uniformly oppose a former member of their own caucus when the issues at stake are complaints that look comical when held up to the light of day? One who was one of the top foreign policy Republicans in the Senate? I doubt it. Will Democratic senators deny a reelected President Obama his choice for one

of the top four cabinet positions when he is quite popular and the expansion of their caucus is due in significant measure to his popularity? Please. Chuck Schumer will
oppose the President? Not likely. So I look forward to Republican crocodile tears on gay rights seemingly in large part over something Hagel said in the 90s in support of the Senate Republican caucuss efforts to pillory an openly gay nominee. And yes, perhaps it really will pave the way for a LGBT upsurge of support for Richard Grinnell for President in 2016. But I doubt it. Otherwise, assuming President Obama nominates him tomorrow, get ready for a Hagel Pentagon.

Appointments dont drain PC---empirics Hutchinson 12/2 Earl Ofari, "Rice Nomination Fight Won't Drain President Obama's Political
Capital, 2012, www.eurweb.com/2012/12/rice-nomination-fight-wont-drain-president-obamaspolitical-capital/
It wont hurt him. All presidents from time to time face some backlash from real or manufactured controversies by opponents over a potential nominee to the Supreme

Court, a cabinet or diplomatic post. In 2008, Obama faced backlash when he nominated Eric Holder as Attorney General. A pack of GOP senators huffed and puffed at Holder for alleged transgressions involving presidential pardons he signed off on as Clintons Deputy Attorney General. In the end he was confirmed. The mild tiff over Holder didnt dampen, diminish, or tarnish Obama in his hard pursuit of his major first term initiative, namely health care reform. This was true three years earlier when then President Bush nominated Condoleezza Rice for Secretary of State. Rice was slammed hard by
some Democratic senators for being up to her eyeballs in selling the phony, conniving Bush falsehood on Iraqs weapons of mass destruction. The threat to delay Rices confirmation in the Senate quickly fizzled out, and she was confirmed. This did not distract or dampen Bush in his pursuit of his key initiatives. There was not the slightest inference that in nominating Rice, and standing behind her in the face of Democrats grumbles about her would threaten his push of his administrations larger agenda items. Susan Rice will continue to be a handy and cynical whipping person for the GOP to hector Obama. But the political reality is that the legislative business that Congress and the White House must do never has been shut down by any political squabble over a presidential appointee. The fiscal cliff is an issue thats too critical to the fiscal and economic well -being of too many interest groups to think that Rices possible nomination will be any kind of impediment to an eventual deal brokered by the GOP and the White House. The Rice flap wont interfere in any way with other White House pursuits for another reason. By holding Rice hostage to a resolution of the fiscal cliff peril and other crucial legislative issues, the GOP would badly shoot itself in the foot. It would open the gate wide to the blatant politicizing of presidential appointments by subjecting every presidential appointment to a litmus test, not on the fitness of the nominee for the job, but on whether the appointee could be a bargaining chip to oppose a vital piece of legislation or a major White House initiative. This would hopelessly blur the legislative process and ultimately could be turned against a future GOP president. This is a slippery slope that Democrats and the GOP dare not risk going down. Rice will not be Obamas only appointment at the start of his second term. He will as all presidents see a small revolving door of some cabinet members and agency heads that will leave, and must be replaced. There almost certainly will be another Obama pick that will raise some eyebrows and draw inevitable fire from either the GOP or some interests groups. Just as other presidents, Obama will have to weigh carefully the political fall-out if any from his pick. But as is usually the case the likelihood of any lasting harm to the

administration will be minimal to nonexistent.

A2 Thumpers (Generic)
Obamas focusing on immigration now. Lugay 2/12 Policy analyst (Elton, Immigration on Obamas Must-Do List White House
Exec, GMA News, 1/12/13, http://www.gmanetwork.com/news/story/294562/pinoyabroad/news/immigration-on-obama-smust-do-list-white-house-exec)
An undocumented sex worker said she would walk away from her underground trade once an immigration reform bill is approved in Congress. Prostitution, Elvie confided, is a stop-gap not the means to an end. Elvie is one of 11 million undocumented immigrants the Obama administration is hoping to legalize through a law that would plug loopholes in the program. That law is almost within reach, according to

White House Director of Domestic Policy Council Cecilia Muoz. She spoke at a February 5th conference call with journalists. The president has a great sense of urgency around this legislation, she said in response to a question from The FilAm. He is eager to see a bill introduced within the next month to six weeks. She
quickly added, Hes also reserving the right to introduce his own bill if this process gets bogged down in the Senate. Were expecting a debate to be moving in to the Senate in the spring. She said young immigrants applying under the Deferred Action on Childhood Arrivals (DACA) make their own decisions. Munoz said she would not venture to advice Dream Act youth on whether they should apply now or wait for the comprehensive law to be enacted. Suggested links: Lubiner & Schmidt, LLC, a full-service law firm, providing clients with representation in the areas of Immigration, Employment Law, Collections, Criminal Defense, Foreclosure Defense, and more. I wouldnt presume to offer advice to individuals whether or not to apply. The right thing to do is to look at the Deferred Action program and make an individual decision. I would say for folks who would otherwise qualify for the Dream Act, Dreamers in particular who serve the military or complete two years of higher education that they

would get an expedited path to citizenship, she said. President Obama presented his principles for immigration reform in Las Vegas Last month. He talked about this as his top priority, something that he has a great deal of urgency about, said Munoz. She added the President welcomed the fact that a bi-partisan group in the Senate appears to be coming around to crafting a new law. If all of this goes well very successfully for the immigration debate which will finally allow us to fix our broken immigration system in a commonsense way that advances the economy; that advances our values as a nation in particular a nation of laws and a nation of immigrants, she said. Obamas policy proposals revolved around three major areas, said Munoz:
Immigration Enforcement: It is important that we continue and strengthen this administrations strong record of border as well as the interior; as well as to create a reliable mechanism for employers to verify that they hire legally. The 11 million people without papers: The President is proposing to hold those individuals accountable as well for getting on the right side of the law. They would be required to fulfill a host of responsibilities including getting a background check; learning English; paying taxes and getting in the back of the line behind people who are waiting in the legal immigration system. The Family Immigration System: Munoz said there is a proposal to add visas in order to clear out the backlog and to update the Family Immigration System which hasnt been updated since 1991. This is to ensure that American families are reunited swiftly consistent with our values and needs as a nation. The

Presidents sense of urgency on this should be clear in a very straightforward kind of way, she said. He is eager to get this done.

A2 XO Solves Immigration
President will not use XO 5 reasons.
1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Backlash from Congressional Republicans Fears backlash over overbroad executive power Fears getting too far ahead of public opinion XO easily overturned by future presidents Needs Congress for comprehensive immigration reform

--THIS CARD IS THE NEXT PARAGRAPH AFTER THE LERER CARD THEY PROBABLY READ.

Lisa Lerer, Obama Poised to Skirt Congress to Seal Legacy in New Term Agenda, BLOOMBERG, 2-11-2013, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-02-11/obama-poised-to-skirtcongress-to-seal-legacy-in-new-term-agenda.html.
The tactic carries political risk, beyond the backlash it will spark from congressional Republicans. Advisers say the president -- who already faces charges from Republicans that he is concentrating too much power in the White House -- remains cautious about getting too far ahead of public opinion. And executive orders can be overturned by a future president a lot easier than can legislation. Whats more, Obama will still need to work through Congress to deal with some of the nations biggest concerns, including tax and spending issues as well as any comprehensive changes in the immigration system.

Obama wont use XOs unconstitutional.

Lisa Lerer, Obama Poised to Skirt Congress to Seal Legacy in New Term Agenda, BLOOMBERG, 2-11-2013, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-02-11/obama-poised-to-skirtcongress-to-seal-legacy-in-new-term-agenda.html.
And even as the president pushes for legislation revising immigration laws, his aides and advocates have a menu of actions that can be taken unilaterally by the White House, the Department of Homeland Security, and the Pentagon to benefit undocumented immigrants and their families, according to congressional staff members and immigration activists. If things really do truly stall and we cant get the bipartisan agreement to fix a really broken system, these may be the kinds of tools to look for, said Bob Deasy, a dire ctor of the American Immigration Lawyers Association. Rules also need to be written to carry out much of the presidents signature first-term domestic policy initiatives -- the expansion of health-care coverage to tens of millions of Americans, and the Dodd-Frank law, the most sweeping new regulations of the financial industry since the Great Depression. Republican Complaints Even in areas where the president is trying to work with lawmakers, he has emphasized his efforts to get tough with Congress. When he announced details of his immigration plan in Las Vegas last month, he said: If Congress is unable to move forward in a timely fashion, I will send up a bill based on my proposal and insist that they vote on it right away.The White House assertiveness has sparked complaints from Republicans. Obamas gun proposals, released on Jan. 16, drew a sharp response from one lawmaker mentioned as a possible 2016 presidential contender.

President Obama is again abusing his power by imposing his policies via executive fiat instead of allowing them to be debated in Congress, said Florida Senator Marco Rubio, in a statement released after Obamas announcement. President Obamas frustration with our republic and the way it works doesnt give him license to ignore the Constitution. Its not just Republicans who have objected to Obamas efforts to wield executive power. The U.S. Court of Appeals in Washington ruled on Jan. 25 that the president violated the Constitution when he bypassed the Senate last year to appoint three members to the National Labor Relations Board. Firmer Ground To be sure, Obama says he still prefers legislation when possible, recognizing that it gives his agenda deeper legal roots. Whenever we can codify something through legislation, it is on firmer ground, he told the New Republic magazine in an interview last month. It is something that will be long lasting and sturdier and more stable. Yet hes in good company in using presidential authority: Scholars
consider Abraham Lincoln, Theodore Roosevelt and Franklin Roosevelt to be among the presidents who relied most heavily on executive power, contrasting their records with that of Lyndon Johnson, a former Senate majority leader known for his ability to push legislation through Congress. The pres ident recognized

that he might not be able to be the Lyndon Johnson president with legislative achievements, that he might have to become an executive-power president, said Brinkley. Outpacing BushPending regulations in the White House pipeline position Obama to outpace Bush with second-term rulemaking. In his second term, when Democrats won control of Congress after two years, Bushs new regulations cost the U.S. economy at least $30 billion, according to Office of Management and Budget data. Estimates for rules headed for completion in a second Obama administration already approach that figure, according to a review of regulatory filings by Bloomberg Government. Obama delayed until after the election decisions on regulating ozone levels and requiring rearview cameras for cars, which could cost between $22 billion and $93 billion in 2020, according to the White House. Rules approved during the first 32 months of his presidency will cost an estimated $19.9 billion and yield net benefits of more than $91 billion in monetary savings and deaths and injuries avoided, according to OMB figures. No King That record aside, the president has been frank about the limitations of his new strategy. On budget issues, a series of fiscal deadlines will force him to work with lawmakers. Only Congress can pass legislation halting automatic reductions in domestic and defense spending, known as the sequester, scheduled to go into effect next month. A continuing resolution funding the government expires in late March, meaning the government will shut down if Congress doesnt act. There is another deadline to raise the U.S. debt ceiling two months later. Im not a king, Obama said in a Jan. 30 interview with Telemundo, a

broadcasting network, when asked why he couldnt unilaterally legalize undocumented immigrants. We cant simply ignore the law.

XO fails and at best solves low skilled labor. Lillis 2/16 - Policy Analyst for Hill (Mike, Dems: Obama Can Unilaterally Act on Immigration
Reform, The Hill, 2/16/13, http://thehill.com/blogs/regwatch/administration/283583 -demsrecognize-that-obama-can-act-unilaterally-on-immigration-reform)
While the Democrats are hoping Congress will preclude any executive action by

enacting reforms legislatively, they say the administration has the tools to move unilaterally if the bipartisan talks on
Capitol Hill break down. Furthermore, they say, Obama stands poised to use them. "I don't think the president will be hands off on immigration for any moment in time," Rep. Xavier Becerra (D-Calif.), the head of the House Democratic Caucus, told reporters this week. "He's ready to move forward if we're not." Rep. Joseph Crowley (N.Y.), vice chairman of the Democratic Caucus, echoed that message, saying Obama is "not just beating the drum," for immigration reform, "he's actually the drum major." "There are limitations as to what he can do with executive order," Crowley said Wednesday, "but he did say that if Congress continued to fail to act that he would take steps and measures to enact common-sense executive orders to move this country forward." Rep. Raul Grijalva (D-Ariz.), who heads the Congressional Progressive Caucus, said there are "plenty" of executive steps Obama could take if Congress fails to pass a reform package. "The huge one," Grijalva said, is "the waiving of

deportation" in order to keep families together. "Four million of the undocumented [immigrants] are people who overstayed their visas to stay with family," he said Friday. "So that would be, I think, an area in which there's a great deal of executive authority that he could deal with." The administration could also waive visa caps, Grijalva said, to ensure that industries like agriculture have ample access to low-skilled labor. "Everybody's for getting the smart and the talented in, but there's also a labor flow
issue," he said. To be sure, Obama and congressional Democrats would prefer the reforms to come through Congress both because that route would solidify the changes into law and because it would require bipartisan buy-in. Still, House Republicans have been loath to accept one of the central elements of Obama's strategy: A pathway to citizenship for the estimated 11-

12 million undocumented people currently living in the country a move which many conservatives deem "amnesty." Indeed, when the House Judiciary Committee met earlier
this month on immigration reform, much of the discussion focused on whether there is some middle ground between citizenship and mass deportation. If we can find a solution that is short of a pathway to citizenship, but better than just kicking 12 million people out, why is that not a good solution? Rep. Raul Labrador (R-Idaho) asked during the hearing. Obama on Tuesday spent a good portion of his State

of the Union address urging Congress to send him a comprehensive immigration reform bill this year. Central to that package, he said, should be provisions for "strong border security," for "establishing a responsible pathway to earned citizenship" and for "fixing the legal immigration system to cut waiting periods and attract the highly-skilled entrepreneurs and engineers that will help create jobs and grow our economy." "We know what needs to be done," Obama said. "So lets get this done." Becerra
said he and other immigration reformers have had two meetings with the White House on immigration this month, one with the executive team working on the issue and, more recently, with Obama himself. Becerra

said administration officials "essentially" know what reforms they want "and they have communicated that to both House and Senate members, bipartisanly" but they also want Congress to take the lead. "They're giving Congress a chance to work its will to move this," Becerra said. "But I don't think he's going to wait too long. "If you were to ask him would he be prepared to submit a bill if Congress isn't ready he would tell you, I have no doubt, 'I can do it in a heartbeat,'" Becerra added. "The president will move forward where he can if Congress doesn't act." Indeed, Obama has already shown a willingness to do just that. Last summer, just months before November's elections, Obama shocked political observers when he

launched a program through the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) allowing undocumented immigrants brought to the country as children to remain without threat of deportation. The two-year "deferred action" was modeled on the Dream Act legislation that
has been unable to pass Congress. The change was not an executive order, but an extension of "prosecutorial discretion" on the part of the DHS. Although conservatives howled about administrative overreach, Obama's gamble paid off, as the president won more than 70 percent of the Hispanic vote at the polls a margin that has fueled the drive for immigration reform this year, as GOP leaders are anxious to avoid a similar divide in 2016. Grijalva said the expansion of the deferred action program represents another opportunity for Obama to move immigration reform administratively. "Like the deferred action that was taken with the Dream Act, I think that can be done for family members," he said. Not all

immigration-reform supporters think Obama has so much space to move on immigration without Congress. Rep. Henry Cuellar (Texas), vice-chairman of the
Democratic Steering and Policy Committee, said the president has some license to make border security moves and spending decisions. "But pretty much he's done what he can do right now,"

Cuellar said Friday, "and after that it's up to Congress to address the rest of the issues." "It'd be better for the president to wait for us," Cuellar said. "He can urge us [to act], but it'd be better for us to come up with our own proposal and let the legislative process work itself."