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Research & TechnologyCenterMontgomery CountyDepartment of Park &PlanningMaryland-National CapitalPark & Planning Commission8787 Georgia AvenueSilver Spring, MD 20910301.495.4700
www.mcfacts.org
Survey shows MontgomeryCounty growing, more diverse.
by Pamela Zorich, Research Planner Coordinator
Census Update Survey2003
Montgomery County Department of Park & Planning Research & Technology Center June 2004
R e s e a r c h
Technology
G I S
Unless otherwise noted, thesource of all data is: CensusUpdate Survey ; M-NCPPCResearch & Technology Center; 1987, 1994, 1997,and 2003.
About the Survey
The Montgomery County 2003 CensusUpdate Survey is the eighth household pollconducted by the Research and TechnologyCenter since 1974. The mail survey, sent to16,000 randomly selected households in theCounty (and achieving a 63 percent responserate), collected basic demographic data suchas age, race, education, employment, income,and housing characteristics. The CensusUpdate Survey is usually conducted twice adecade. It serves to update the federaldecennial census and provide a local slant onadditional characteristics and interrelationshipsfor the County and its Planning Areas.The following analysis summarizes theCountywide changes in population, housing,mobility, employment, and income. The surveyresults depict the underlying components of change, such as the aging “Baby Boomers”,new immigrant households, and minoritysuburbanization. The Census Update Surveyenjoys a long history of being a valuable datasource for Montgomery County Departmentof Park and Planning, various MontgomeryCounty agencies, as well as private andnonprofit organizations.
Maryland's most populous jurisdic-tion is on track to 1 million mark
Since 1989, Montgomery County has been themost populous jurisdiction in Maryland. At thetime of the 2003 Census Update Survey, theCounty’s estimated total population figure was925,000
1
, a 6 percent increase from the U.S.Census Bureau’s April 2000 estimate of 873,341. Over one-fifth of the Washington,D.C. metropolitan population resides in
County's population will cross1 million mark in 2010
Montgomery County population 1970-2030,in millions
Figure 2
01.0
19702000
1.20.80.60.40.2
2030
2003: 925,000 2010: 1,000,000
Figure 1
Population gainsnow outpacing1990s
Total Population
0
1 9 8 0 1 9 9 0 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 3
5 7 9 , 0 5 3
7 5 7 , 0 2 7 8 7 3 , 3 4 1 9 2 5 , 0 0 0
15,900/yr11,630/yr17,800/yr
1 million
Montgomery County, and the County issecond only to northern Virginia’s FairfaxCounty. Nationally, Montgomery County fallsin the top 45 counties ranked by total popula-tion. In 2000, its ranking of 49
th
just crackedthe top 50-population size list; thus, Montgom-ery County’s population size is increasingrelative to all other counties.One of the emerging trends of this decade is amarked increase in the County’s populationgrowth compared to the 1990s. The twoleading contributors to the County’s sustained population growth are the unflagging recordlevel of births (the historic pace of more than13,000 births per year is expected to continueat least until 2010), and the influx of newresidents from other states and immigrantsfrom other countries. Montgomery County hasalready gained almost 52,000 people since2000, or approximately 15,900 people per year.But, population growth is relative, as the samegain of 52,000 people in nearby LoudounCounty, Virginia, translates into the fastest population growth (8.7 percent annual growth)in the nation during the three years after the
Census Update Survey2003
2000 U.S. Census. In contrast, the County’scomparatively large population base enables itto absorb growth at a rather modest averageannual percentage growth rate of 1.7 percent(well below the phenomenal pace of 3 percentwitnessed in the 1980s). Montgomery Countyis expected to maintain about the same growthrate for the remainder of this decade. Thecurrent Research and Technology Center forecast predicts the County’s population willcross the one million-population mark in 2010and then enter a mature, slow growth phase inthe subsequent decades.Of the County’s 2003 total population, 914,900 people are household members, and approxi-mately 10,100 live in institutions such as prisons, school dormitories, and nursinghomes. Please note that unless otherwiseindicated,
this report describes the charac-teristics of the household population
, notthe total population, which includes thoseresiding in group-quarters.
Gateway Montgomery: one in fivehouseholds are new to the County
Montgomery County is a major migration“gateway’ into Maryland for in-movers fromother states and immigrants from abroad. Nineteen percent of the population, or 173,990 people, became new County residents be-tween 1998 and 2003. Individuals and familiesare continually attracted to MontgomeryCounty because of its large employment base,the excellent quality of life, and its growingimmigrant population base. New residents are characterized as young,married couples in their 30s with children. Thegroup is predominately non-Hispanic White(52.6 percent), although Asians (15.6 percent)and Hispanics (13.8 percent) comprise ahigher percentage than the County norm.Almost half (44.5 percent) of the new resi-dents are more likely to speak a languageother than English. The new adult in-moversare highly educated, with 29.1 percent havinga bachelor’s degree and another 44.1 percentwith an advanced degree. Almost half of theemployed new residents work within theCounty and one-third commute into Washing-ton, D.C.Most new residents (i.e., those householdsthat moved into Montgomery County between1998 and 2003) come from outside the Wash-ington, D.C. metropolitan area. As illustratedin Figure 3, the out-of-region percentage shareat 60.6 percent (39,325 new households) has been creeping up since 1984. No one local jurisdiction contributed substantially; unlike inyears 1987 and 1997 when Prince George’sand Washington, D.C., respectively, wereleading local contributors. The District of Columbia, at 11.2 percent of all in-movers, or 7,225 households, just edged out neighboringPrince George’s County at 10.1 percent(6,570) and the 10.4 combined percentage of other Maryland jurisdictions (6,740). About5,000 households between 1998 and 2003crossed the Potomac River to relocate in theCounty from Northern Virginia.The County’s new residents from Washington,D.C. and Northern Virginia are more likely tomove into a single-family dwelling (43 per-cent), while newcomers from Marylandlocalities are just as likely to occupy a gardenapartment as a single-family detached house(both at 31 percent). Almost one-third of thosehailing from outside the metropolitan areachoose garden apartments as their first homein Montgomery County. As to be expected of new residents, almost half of the new house-holds rent their dwelling. New owners andrenters alike are paying more than the averagehousing cost in the County. These younger
Percent of new residents
Figure 3
Most new residents come from outsidethe region
100%0%
Outside the AreaD.C.PrinceGeorge's Co.Elsewhere inMDNorthern VA
879703879703879703879703879703
55%59%61%
11141116131091010878
Montgomery County growing, more diverse.
households also have a lower 2002 medianhousehold income ($73,725) compared to theCounty’s overall estimate ($79,115).
Continuing trend of racial diversity
So, as Montgomery County grows, its popula-tion is becoming more racially and ethnicallydiverse. In the last decade, minority growthwas fueling population growth. Minorities (thatis, everyone who is not non-Hispanic White)accounted for 121 percent of the populationgrowth between 1990 and 2000. Since 2000,this trend is not as robust, but it is still substan-tial with 66 percent of the growth attributed tominority gains.According to the 2003 Census Update Survey,68.2 percent of Montgomery County’s resident population is White (including Hispanics), 14.0 percent are Black or African American, andanother 12.0 percent are Asian and PacificIslanders. Those of Hispanic or Latino origin(which may be of any race) comprise 11.4 percent of the County’s residents. The non-Hispanic White population has declined from66.3 percent in 1997 to 60.6 percent in 2003. Incomparison, the nation is 80.7 percent white(68.3 percent non-Hispanic White), 12.7 percent Black, 4.2 percent Asian, and 13.4 percent Hispanic/Latino.
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Montgomery Countyhas the largest Hispanic and Asian populationsin the state; in fact, almost half of Maryland’sHispanic and Asian populations live in theCounty. Hispanics or Latinos, with an annualgrowth rate since 1997 of 7.8 percent is thefastest growing minority group in the County,followed by Asians at 3.7 and African Ameri-cans or Blacks at 3.1 percent growth per year.The non-Hispanic White majority has a negli-gible annual growth rate of 0.3 percent be-tween 1997 and 2003.
Foreign-born immigration spursCounty’s growth and cosmopolitanmilieu
The 2003 Census Update Survey estimates theCounty’s foreign-born population at approxi-mately 232,000 people. The number of newforeign-born residents since 1997 accounts for 56 percent of Montgomery County’s popula-tion growth. The percentage of persons bornoutside the United States and currently livingin Montgomery County increased from 21.9 percent in 1997 to 25.3 percent in 2003.Moreover, 36.8 percent of the County’s population live in a household where the heador spouse is foreign-born. Compared to therest of the County, the population in thesehouseholds is characterized as younger withmore children, a larger household size, morediverse, greater extremes in educational
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Montgomery County race and ethnicity, 1997 and 2003
Household population
Table 1
19972003Change
Non-Hispanic752,48591.4%810,68088.6%7.7%
White 545,750 66.3% 554,660 60.6% 1.6%African-American 106,645 13.0% 126,640 13.8% 18.4%Asian & Pac. Islander 89,045 10.8% 108,865 11.9% 22.3%Other 10,745 1.3% 20,515 2.2% 91.0%
Hispanic71,0158.6%104,22011.4%46.8%Total823,500100%914,900100%11.1%
attainment, and more likely to carpool or take public transit to work. The median income of households with foreign-born head or spouseis 85 percent of the median of native-bornhouseholds ($69,830 and $82,365, respec-tively).Analysis of net international migration data
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compiled since 2000 shows that immigrationfrom abroad is a major contributor to theCounty’s growth. The Population EstimatesBranch of the U.S. Census Bureau estimates33,868 net international migrants moved to“gateway” Montgomery from April 2000 toJuly 2003. This is 46.7 percent of all immi-grants that moved into Maryland during this period. In the state, the County’s only rival asa magnet for international migrants is neigh- boring Prince George’s County, which at-tracted fewer than half of MontgomeryCounty’s net immigrants during the same period. Only births (42,796 between 2000 and2003) exceed international migration as acomponent of the County’s growth.
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