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Winners and Losers: Impact of the Doha Round on Developing Countries

Winners and Losers: Impact of the Doha Round on Developing Countries

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Winners and Losers: Impact of the Doha Round on Developing Countries presents a new, path breaking model of global trade as a tool to analyze the potential impacts of the negotiations and underlying economic interests of the WTO’s diverse members. This new Carnegie model makes several critical innovations—notably, modeling unemployment in developing countries and separating agricultural labor markets from urban unskilled labor markets. The result is a thorough, detailed, and more accurate analysis of the impact of trade policies on both developing and developed countries.

The report’s major findings are striking: any of the plausible trade scenarios will produce only modest gains for the world; agricultural trade is not a panacea for most poor countries; the poorest countries may actually lose from any agreement; and additional special measures will be needed to ensure that the least developed countries succeed. The full document includes technical specifications of the Carnegie model, simulation results, a wealth of regional and national data, over 50 full color charts and graphs, policy implications and recommendations.
Winners and Losers: Impact of the Doha Round on Developing Countries presents a new, path breaking model of global trade as a tool to analyze the potential impacts of the negotiations and underlying economic interests of the WTO’s diverse members. This new Carnegie model makes several critical innovations—notably, modeling unemployment in developing countries and separating agricultural labor markets from urban unskilled labor markets. The result is a thorough, detailed, and more accurate analysis of the impact of trade policies on both developing and developed countries.

The report’s major findings are striking: any of the plausible trade scenarios will produce only modest gains for the world; agricultural trade is not a panacea for most poor countries; the poorest countries may actually lose from any agreement; and additional special measures will be needed to ensure that the least developed countries succeed. The full document includes technical specifications of the Carnegie model, simulation results, a wealth of regional and national data, over 50 full color charts and graphs, policy implications and recommendations.

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Published by: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace on Mar 10, 2009
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04/06/2014

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IMPACT OF THE DOHA ROUND ON DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
Sandra Polaski
Winners and Losers
 
IMPACT OF THE DOHA ROUND ON DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
Sandra Polaski
Winners and Losers
 
© 2006 Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. All rights reserved.No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means withoutpermission in writing from the Carnegie Endowment.The Carnegie Endowment normally does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; theviews presented here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Endowment, its staff, or its trustees.For electronic copies of this report, visit
www.CarnegieEndowment.org/trade
. Limited printcopies are also available. To request a copy, send an e-mail to pubs@CarnegieEndowment.org.
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
1779 Massachusetts Avenue, N.W.Washington, D.C. 20036202-483-7600Fax 202-483-1840
www.CarnegieEndowment.org
About the Author
Sandra Polaski
is senior associate and director of the Trade, Equity, and Development project atthe Carnegie Endowment. Before joining the Endowment, she served as the U.S. Secretary of State’s special representative for international labor affairs, the senior State Department officialdealing with such matters. She played a leading role in the development of U.S. government policyon international labor issues, and integrated those issues into U.S. trade and foreign policy. Prior tothat, she was the director of research for the North American Commission on Labor Cooperation, aNAFTA-related intergovernmental body.Cover photo:Tomasz Tomaszewski/National Geographic Image Collection

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