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Thesis Synopsis : Development of a Demand Forecasting Model for the Specialty Plant Nutrition Industry in India (can be applied to any industry where past demand data is unavailable or unreliable or where the past is not representative of the future)

Thesis Synopsis : Development of a Demand Forecasting Model for the Specialty Plant Nutrition Industry in India (can be applied to any industry where past demand data is unavailable or unreliable or where the past is not representative of the future)

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The demand forecasting model proposed here may be applied to any industry where past demand data is unreliable or not available. It may also be applied to predict short term demand for new industries where past data is unavailable or for sectors where the past is no longer representative of the future. The methodology uses intentions surveys to create a model to predict demand using mind maps rather than mere extrapolation. write to rahul@ariesagro.com for full text version of the thesis.
The demand forecasting model proposed here may be applied to any industry where past demand data is unreliable or not available. It may also be applied to predict short term demand for new industries where past data is unavailable or for sectors where the past is no longer representative of the future. The methodology uses intentions surveys to create a model to predict demand using mind maps rather than mere extrapolation. write to rahul@ariesagro.com for full text version of the thesis.

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Published by: Dr Rahul Mirchandani on Mar 11, 2009
Copyright:Attribution Non-commercial

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05/10/2014

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DEVELOPMENT OF A DEMAND FORECASTING MODELFOR SPECIALTY PLANT NUTRITION SOLUTIONSAPPLICABLE TO INDIA
 
DISSERTATION SYNOPSIS
submitted byRAHUL MIRCHANDANIin partial fulfillment of the requirements for the
DOCTORAL PROGRAMME IN MANAGEMENT (Ph.D.)
under the guidance of DR S R GANESHSenior Professor  NARSEE MONJEE INSTITUTE OF MANAGEMENT STUDIESDeemed University, Mumbai.
 
 1
SYNOPSIS CONTENTSPage #1.
 
Introduction 2
1.1 What Are Specialty Fertilizers? 21.2 Dissertation Scope 31.3 Need for the Study 3
2. Research Objectives 33. Variables 44. Research Methodology 5
4.1 Choosing an appropriate forecasting technique 54.2 Data Collection Methods 6
5. Sample & Respondents 86. Validity & Reliability 9
6.1 Validity 96.2
 
Inter-item Reliability 106.3 Parallel Form Reliability 10
7. Research Framework 11
Table of Objectives, Research Problems, Hypotheses, Approach,Information Needs, Methodology & Tools11
8. Research Results 14
8.1 Developing the Overall Demand Forecast Model 148.2 The Demand Forecasting Equation 168.3 Test of the Model 18
9. Implications 1910. Limitations of the Study 2011. Contributions of the Study 2112. Suggestions for Future Research 21
Bibliography 23
 
 2
Title of the Study: “Development of a Demand Forecasting Model for SpecialtyPlant Nutrition Solutions applicable to India”1.
 
Introduction
Agriculture is one of the most complex and diverse elements of the economic fabric of India. Theuse of modern farming practices on a wider scale and integrated nutrient management practicesare essential if India’s farmers wish to produce crops in line with the observed global standards of quantity and quality. If a farmer does not provide balanced ‘food’ to his crops, he cannot expectoptimum levels of farm productivity.
1.1 What Are Specialty Fertilizers?
There are a total of 
sixteen
 
elements recognized as essential plant nutrients, each having specificfunctions. Neither can a plant complete a healthy life cycle in the absence of even one of theessential nutrients, nor can they be replaced.
 Note: Silicon (Si), the seventh micronutrient, has been excluded as there is no specific deficiencyrecorded of this nutrient in India.
The application of nutrients like Nitrogen (through Urea), Phosphorus (through Di-AmmoniumPhosphate) and Potassium (through Sulphate of Potash) is commonplace. These are nutrientsrequired in large quantities and they are well recognized as major fertilizers. In fact, there areseveral instances observed of their rampant overuse, which is a serious cause for concern. Excessnutrients applied tend to reduce the efficiency of uptake of the other nutrients present in the soil,compounding the problems of deficiencies.However Nitrogen, Phosphorus & Potassium are not the only nutrients required by plants.Calcium, Magnesium and Sulphur are considered as secondary nutrients. Several other nutrientscalled micronutrients; though required in smaller quantities, are equally important for goodgrowth and development of plants. The essential micronutrients are Boron (B), Chlorine (Cl),Copper (Cu), Iron (Fe), Manganese (Mn), Molybdenum (Mo) and Zinc (Zn). Plants take up all

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