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Terrorism and European Security: TE-SAT 2012

Terrorism and European Security: TE-SAT 2012

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An analsysis on Terrorism Situation and Trend Report (TE-SAT) 2012
An analsysis on Terrorism Situation and Trend Report (TE-SAT) 2012

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1 |
TE-SAT 2012: An Analysis
 
Terrorism and European Security:
An Analysis on Europol’s TE
-SAT 2012
 Cyril ThomasUniversity of Aberdeen
cyril@criminologytoday.com
 
 
2 |
TE-SAT 2012: An Analysis
 
Terrorism and European Security: An Analysis on Europol’s TE
-SAT 2012
Introduction to TE-SATSince the creation of Europol in 1995 as a preventive measure to the opening of the European
Union’s internal borders
of the Schengen Convention, its scope and potential was enormous.However, only after the 9/11 attacks, the European Union protracted its counter terrorismintelligence capabilities despite it had an existing structure. Even though Europol wasspecialized in counter terrorism it was not a priority till 2001, just after two months of the
9/11 attacks, the Member States provided financial and personnel support to Europol’
scounterterrorism operations, thus the Counter Terrorism Task Force (CTTF) fully fledged itsarms in the areas of terrorism and transnational crime. It should also be noted that it wasunder the shadow of 9/11 attacks Europol has been involved in the preparation of TerrorismSituation and Trend Report (TE-SAT). In 2006, Europol widened the data and intelligencegathering capabilities for the TE-SAT. In 2007, this new system was introduced and presented by the Europol, which was henceforth an unclassified document for the EuropeanParliament and fully accessible to the public.2012 TE-SATThe 2012 TE-SAT emphasize on the lone wolf actors and homegrown terrorism along withradicalization and cyber terrorism. Religious terrorism is also under the radar of TE-SATdespite its solid presence has not been evident as a statistical evidence.
1
The TE-
SAT’s
intelligence gathering and data collection is based on the EU Council Decision on theexchange of information and cooperation among Member States however, it also heavilydepends Eurojust.
2
Rather than profiling the terrorists or their acts, or analyzing the factors of terrorism, TE-SAT presents the threat assessment in a conceptual and statistical fashion.Which is similar to the threat assessment concept developed by the United States SecretService. The Secret Service threat assessment approach moves away from the idea of "profiling," and instead looks at the pathways of ideas and behaviours that may lead to aviolent action.
3
 Categories of Terrorism in TE-SAT 2012Europol identified different types of terrorism that have the potential to develop serious
1
According to the General O
verview of the Situation in 2011, “(N)ot one religiously inspired attack on EU
territory was reported by Member States, nor were any single-
issue terrorist attacks registered.” TE
-SAT 2012,EU Terrorism and Trend Report, European Police Office, 2012 p.8
2
Ibid. pp.42-43, Apart from the methodology, it should be noted that TE-
SAT’s dependence on SitCen and
Eurojust is a limitation. Since TE-SAT acquires data on arrests and convictions, Eurojust is an essential part of TE-SAT and offers a major share of its data.
3
Borum, Randy, Robert Fein, Bryan Vossekuil, and John Berglund, Threat Assessment: Defining an Approachfor Evaluating Risk of Targeted Violence, Behavioral Sciences and the Law, 17: 323-337, 1999 p.327
 
 
3 |
TE-SAT 2012: An Analysis
 
threats to the European Union.1. Lone Actors or Individual Cells2. Religiously Motivated Terrorism3. Ethno-nationalist and Separatist Terrorism4. Socio-political and Anarchist Terrorism, and5. Single Issue Terrorism.Trends in TerroirsmEver since the 90s, four key trends have become apparent in modern terrorism, which are (1)an increase in the religiously inspired or motivated, attacks (2) expansion of lethalness,
4
(3)decrease in overall attacks and, (4) growth in Western targets.
.5
Religiously Inspired TerrorismTE-SAT identified religious terrorism as a grave concern, despite the difficulties and debatesin the academic and criminological communities about the definition of the term. The earlygovernmental reports like the famous Report of the Task Force on Disorders and Terrorism
6
 which classified different categories of terrorism side stepped on the religiously inspiredterrorism and extremist motivations. By the late 90s terrorism and security experts identifiedan inclination toward higher casualties in terror attacks. Religious terrorists often alienatethemselves from secular laws, values, social system, and norms set by the society. Whenreligious terrorists disregards social norms and conventional ethics for the sake of religiousideals, they can efficaciously depersonalize their future victims.Pape argues the taproot of terrorism is nationalism, a common bond that the members shareof ethnic, linguistic, and historical characteristics
7
and according to his study on Suicide
4
Jenkins once said, the terrorists wanted a lot of people watching not a people dead. However, later herealized the trend changed when the fatatlities increased faster...tens in the 70s, upto hundreds in the 80s,frequent hundreds in the 90s and with 9/11 thousands of fatalities. See also, Jenkins, Brian M., The Likelihoodof Nuclear Terrorism, Santa Monica, CA: Rand P-7119, July 1985, p.6 Hoffman, Bruce, Rethinking Terrorism andCounter Terrorism Since 9/11, Studies in Conflict and Terrirsm, 25:303-316, 2002, Jenkins, Brian M., The NewAge of Terrorism, The McGraw-Hill Homeland Security Handbook, (ed.) David Kamien, New York: McGraw-Hill,2006.
5
This is one of the major trend analyses, see Rand-St. Andrews Chronology of International Terrorism. FromRand-St. Andrews data base, it is evident that before 1968 there were no terrorist organizations could be
deemed “religious”; in 1980 there were only two (out of 64) and by the 1995 the number rose into 25 (out of 
58).
6
Disorders and Terrorism, National Advisory Committee on Criminal Justice Standards and Goals, Washington,D.C., 1976, The Task Force divided terrorism into six categories
 –
civil disorders, political, non-political, Quasi,limited political, and official or state terrorism. pp. 3-7
7
Pape, Robert A., Dying to Win: The Strategic Logic of Suicide Terrorism, New York: Random House, p. 79Pape also noted the core theme of suicide terrorism is not a religious one but a specific secular and broaderstrategic objective. pp.4-7

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