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New research challenges conventional wisdom in Washington on China’s economy—the importance of its trade surplus, the size of its GDP, and the scale of its poverty. A newly updated Carnegie report by Senior Associate Albert Keidel confirms that China’s growth and inflation risks are not trade-related but are instead driven by domestic forces. A recent World Bank announcement also confirmed Keidel’s findings that China’s economy and GDP per capita are 40 percent smaller than earlier analysis had asserted, and that Chinese poverty levels involve 300 million people under the World Bank’s dollar-a-day standard rather than 100 million as previously thought. This more accurate picture supports the Treasury Department’s recent stance, once again declining to cite China as a currency manipulator, reflecting continued doubt by U.S. government experts that China’s currency is a major factor behind global commercial imbalances.