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A Goodness of Fit Test

# A Goodness of Fit Test

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This article explains how to make tests of hypothesis about experiments with more than two possible outcomes (or categories). Such experiments, called multinomial experiments, possess four characteristics. Note that a binomial experiment is a special case of a multinomial experiment. An experiment with the following characteristics is called a multinomial experiment.
This article explains how to make tests of hypothesis about experiments with more than two possible outcomes (or categories). Such experiments, called multinomial experiments, possess four characteristics. Note that a binomial experiment is a special case of a multinomial experiment. An experiment with the following characteristics is called a multinomial experiment.

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08/30/2013

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Sub: Statistics Topic: Hypothesis Testing
*
The Homework solutions from Classof1 are intended to help students understand the approach to solving the problem and not forsubmitting the same in lieu of their academic submissions for grades.
A

G
OODNESS
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IT
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This article explains how to make tests of hypothesis about experiments with more than two possibleoutcomes (or categories). Such experiments, called multinomial experiments, possess fourcharacteristics. Note that a binomial experiment is a special case of a multinomial experiment. Anexperiment with the following characteristics is called a
multinomial experimen
.1. It consists of
n
identical trials (repetitions).2. Each trial results in one of
possible outcomes (or categories), where
_ 2.3. The trials are independent.4. The probabilities of the various outcomes remain constant for each trial.An experiment of many rolls of a die is an example of a multinomial experiment. It consists of manyidentical rolls (trials); each roll (trial) results in one of the six possible outcomes; each roll isindependent of the other rolls; and the probabilities of the six outcomes remain constant for each roll.As a second example of a multinomial experiment, suppose we select a random sample of people andask them whether or not the quality of American cars is better than that of Japanese cars. Theresponse of a person can be
yes
,
no
, or
does not know
. Each person included in the sample can beconsidered as one trial (repetition) of the experiment. There will be as many trials for this experimentas the number of persons selected. Each person can belong to any of the three categories
yes
,
no
, or
does not know
. The response of each selected person is independent of the responses of otherpersons. Given that the population is large, the probabilities of a person belonging to the threecategories remain the same for each trial. Consequently, this is an example of a multinomialexperiment.The frequencies obtained from the actual performance of an experiment are called the observedfrequencies. In a goodness-of-fit test, we test the null hypothesis that the observed frequencies for an

Sub: Statistics Topic: Hypothesis Testing
*
The Homework solutions from Classof1 are intended to help students understand the approach to solving the problem and not forsubmitting the same in lieu of their academic submissions for grades.
experiment follow a certain pattern or theoretical distribution. The test is called a goodness-of-fit testbecause the hypothesis tested is how
good
the observed frequencies
fit
a given pattern. For exampleinvolving opinions of people on the quality of American cars, suppose such a survey was conducted in2009, and in that survey 41% of the people said
yes
, 48% said
no
, and 11% said
do not know
. We wantto test if these percentages still hold true. Suppose we take a random sample of 1000 adults andobserve that 536 of them think that the quality of American cars is better than that of Japanese cars,362 say it is worse, and 102 have no opinion. The frequencies 536, 362, and 102 are the observedfrequencies. These frequencies are obtained by actually performing the survey. Now, assuming thatthe 2009 percentages are still true (which will be our null hypothesis), in a sample of 1000 adults wewill expect 410 to say
yes
, 480 to say
no
, and 110 to say
do not know
. These frequencies are obtainedby multiplying the sample size (1000) by the 2009 proportions. These frequencies are called theexpected frequencies. Then, we will make a decision to reject or not to reject the null hypothesisbased on how large the difference between the observed frequencies and the expected frequenciesis. To perform this test, we will use the chi-square distribution.