ASIA PROGRAM SPECIAL REPORT
Loren Brandt and Thomas G. Rawski
hese essays,originally presented at aMarch 2,2005,symposium at theWoodrow Wilson InternationalCenter for Scholars,represent the initialproduct of a larger project on “China’sEconomic Transition:Origins,Mechanisms,and Consequences.”This project involves aninternational group of 45 researchers,whohave worked for several years to prepare acomprehensive and analytical overview of China’s remarkable economic gains duringthe long boom of the past three decades.Three major themes emerge from thepresent collection of essays:China’s spectac-ular economic gains,China’s potential for continuation of rapid economic progress,and formidable obstacles with which Chinamust engage in order to realize its ambitiouseconomic objectives.
China’s long boom is a major episode inglobal economic history.The broad outlinesof China’s protracted growth require nodetailed elaboration.They include enormousexpansion of output,employment,produc-tivity,exports and incomes;unprecedentedprogress in poverty alleviation and materialwell-being;and the emergence of China as amajor force in global markets.These essays highlight specific features of China’s economic achievements.LeeBranstetter and Nicholas Lardy emphasizeChina’s aggressive liberalization of trade andinvestment in advance of deadlines built intothe agreements surrounding China’s acces-sion to the World Trade Organization(WTO).From the perspective of earlier Asiangrowth spurts in Japan and Korea,China hasopened its economic doors to imports andoverseas capital to an unprecedented degree,a strategy that seems likely to create futureindustrial structures that differ widely fromwhat we see in Japan and Korea today.Scott Rozelle and Jikun Huang show thatin addition to overcoming long-standing defi-ciencies in feeding China’s growing popula-tion,China’s farm sector has achieved levels of market integration sometimes approachingU.S.standards,developed a growing array of labor-intensive export specialties,andachieved major gains in agriculture-relatedresearch,including contributions to cutting-edge innovations in biotechnology.Our own paper on industry emphasizesthe growth of China’s manufacturing capa-bilities.The growing penetration of China-made goods into global markets reflects the
China’s Economy:Retrospect and Prospect
EDITED BY LOREN BRANDT, THOMAS G. RAWSKI AND GANG LIN
China’s Embrace ofGlobalization(page 6)Rural Developmentin China(page 13)Chinese IndustryAfter 25 Years of Reform(page 20)Institutional Environmentand Private SectorDevelopment in China(page 26) Will China’s FinancialSystem Stimulate orImpede the Growthof Its Economy?(page 33)Law, Institutions, andProperty Rights in China(page 42)Growth and StructuralTransformation in China(page 48)China’s Growth Prospects(page 55)China’s Political Systemand China’s Future Growth(page 62)