Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Contents Introduction Oil and Gas Scenario Promoting Conservation and Efficiency Technology Absorption Challenges and Opportunities Perspective
Core Strategies
Ja
dl e
ni te
O E
M id
ou t
il
-0.5
2.00
2.02
Billion People
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
01 20
11 20
21 20
31 20
41 20
51 20
61 20
71 20
India's population reach 2 billion? It is a real possibility over the long term
Source : Population Reference Bureau Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Ltd., India
Billion KWH
-91 0 9 19
-01 0 0 20
-03 2 0 20
-04 3 0 20
-05 4 0 20
-06 5 0 20
-07 6 0 20
1.0
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008 (est.)
200
Quadrillion Btu
37%
150
100
23%
Renewables
50
8% 6%
8% Nuclear 6%
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Source: EIA, IEO2008
2005
25 15 16 16 9 6 6 8 10 7 9 28 31
102%
3% 7% 42% 62% 43% 47%
Non-OECD Europe/Eurasia
Africa
5 3 4
10
15
20
25
30
35
Source: EIA, IEO2008
Current Annual Oil Production in World : 85 Million bpd Worlds Average Production Decline : 3.3 Million bpd / 4% Per Annum Saudi production : 10.5 Million bpd World needs One new Saudi Arabia every three years to offset the decline
Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Ltd., India
History
Projections
Domestic
200
Imports
MMT
86.48
50
89.58
95.54
100
105.06
42
120.37
42
150.51
41
170.41
150
34
32
20 04 -0 5
20 05 -0 6
20 06 -0 7
20 07 -0 8
34
34
20 08 -0 9
20 09 -1 0
20 10 -1 1
20 01 -1 2
40
195.49
120.0 100.0
MMT
19 70
19 72
19 74
19 76
19 78
19 80
19 82
19 84
19 86
19 88
19 90
19 92
19 94
19 96
19 98
20 00
20 02
20 04
Oil production almost stagnated ~34 MMT Oil consumption more than 3 times of oil production Huge supply demand gap Crude oil import burden > 80 MMT ~ USD 64 Billion [Rs. 256,000 Crore] > 33% of total import
Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Ltd., India
20 06
2005 2030
1 0.5 0
Oil Sands
Ultra Heavy
Gas to Liquids
Coal to Liquids
Biofuels
Shale Oil
Source: EIA, IEO2008
History
Projections Transportation
15
10
Industrial
Electric Power
0 1970 1980 1990 2000
2010
2020
2030
Source : AEO 2008
History
Projections
10
Heavy-Duty Vehicles
5
Air
Rail
0 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Water
2030
Source : AEO 2008
Worldwide
Car
and growing
Oil
Demand
as fuel
Demand
in
Look 2014, India to reach 4th Position in light Vehicle Market after US, China & Japan
Look 2010, Ten Thousand New Buses for New Delhi Jazz, Cruse, M 300, Santa Fe, A-Star, Escudo, Ingenio, C 30, C 70 the upcoming cars
Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Ltd., India
Bitumen Lubes LSHS Furnace Oil Diesel ATF SKO Naptha LPG 0 10 20 MMT 30
62.77, 53%
22.87, 19%
40
50
Source : MoPNG Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Ltd., India
5%
4%
10%
49%
18%
22%
51%
: 22%
: 37 MMTOE : Rs. 74,000 Crore
Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Ltd., India
Daily Monetary Loss due to the Fuel Loss in Delhi Rs. 3.82 Crore per day.
( @ Current Fuel Prices)
Annual Monetary Loss due to the Fuel Loss in Rs. 1395 Crore per Annum. Delhi (@ Current Fuel Prices) Annual Fuel Loss in Delhi 1.97 Million Barrels petroleum products approx.
(~0.27 MMT)
Extrapolated to nine Metros, the annual fuel loss is approx. 6.36 Million barrels (~ 0.9 MMT) per annum, approx. Rs. 4506 Crore at current fuel prices.
Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Ltd., India
120
8 .7 2 3
100
Production
LNG Imports
5 .2 3 1 57 6. 54 8.
80
0 .6 7 0 2 .7 0 2
60
40
92 2.
55
32
32
32
19 90 -9 1 20 00 -0 1 20 03 -0 4 20 04 -0 5 20 05 -0 6 20 06 -0 7 20 07 -0 8
18
29
32
32
20
20 08 -0 9 20 09 -1 0 20 10 -1 1 20 01 -1 2
Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Ltd., India
48
55
74
62 7.
5 5
Hazira
Mundra Mangalore
2.5
(Being expanded to 3.6)
Commissioned
Planned by 2013 Planned 2011-12
5 1.25
Enmore
IOC
Planned
99 LNG Carriers to be delivered in 2008 -09 & 32 ordered for 2010-12 5 Liquefaction Plants to come on line in 2009, another 7 expected in 2010-12 Production to Grow by 86% by 2016
Present
Future
450000
EORP-MHS & MHN L-II APP
500000
25.00
Gas Lift
Addl A1 in MHN
20.00
% OIIP Recovered
Oil (bopd)
15.00
MH Ph-III
10.00
Major redevelopment program launched 2000-2001. Redevelopment program of installation of new platforms, expansion of surface facilities and drilling of infill wells. Implementation spanning over seven years, reversed declining trend, boosted production and added new reserves.
5.00
0.00
Mar-92 Mar-96 Mar-00 Mar-04 Mar-08
100 90
Mum bai High - Com parative Production Profile Revised decline under Existing Plan Vs. 40 % recovery Plan 25.0
20.0
80 70
Percentage
BOPD
15.0
60 50
10.0
40 30
5.0
20 10
0.0
80-81
82-83
84-85
86-87
88-89
90-91
92-93
94-95
96-97
98-99
00-01
02-03
04-05
06-07
08-09
10-11
12-13
14-15
16-17
18-19
20-21
22-23
24-25
26-27
28-29
30 8
ONGC 82672 Crore OVL 58674 Crore OIL 10176 Crore IOCL 45215 Crore HPCL 32285 Crore BPCL 12553 Crore GAIL 12159 Crore etc. Total 2,69,000+ Crores Attracting
investment from global players directly and in partnerships (PI/ JV) Taping domestic capital markets
78
Overall investment in Oil & Gas sector in the next 10 years ~ $80-100 bn
Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Ltd., India
Perspective
World Wide energy Consumption projected to grow by 50% by 2030. 84% growth in Non OECD countries like India and China. Crude Oil prices expected to remain high New Sources available mainly in harsh environments
Perspective
Technologies to push recoveries from aging fields Look for acreages abroad Huge Infrastructure Growth supported by Institutions Increased R&D efforts for alternatives
Moderate the demand through improved efficiency Expand and Diversify supplies from non conventional sources Partnering Global Energy Security Fast Track Technology Initiatives to improve recovery and explore harsh environments
Population
Thanks
Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Ltd., India