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Lewisham Hospital - additional Travel Times

Lewisham Hospital - additional Travel Times

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Published by heidialex75
Analysis by Tony O'Sullivan of the estimated additional journey times to A&E for Lewisham residents if proposed changes to Lewisham Hospital go ahead.
Analysis by Tony O'Sullivan of the estimated additional journey times to A&E for Lewisham residents if proposed changes to Lewisham Hospital go ahead.

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Published by: heidialex75 on Mar 28, 2013
Copyright:Attribution Non-commercial


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Blue lights ‘only
2 minutes
longer’ –
only 2-3 minutes longer for everyone else
The narrative behind the TSA and Secretary of State,
sound bites
The sound bite used by Kershaw and his TSA Office and the Department of Health for Jeremy Hunt
 suggests that journey times to A&E for south east London people would only be increased onaverage by 2-3 minutes. They are talking about
average impact on 1.64 million residents of the6 boroughs of SE London, yet the closure of Lewisham Hospital mainly affects the 275,000 residents of Lewisham.
sing the TSA’s own data
, never quoted in public statements, the impact onLewisham people is 5-fold greater or even worse. And in the case of critically ill patients in blue lightambulance transits, at least 1 in 20 will be in danger of breaching the standard for such emergenciesto access A&E within 30 minutes.
Method of transport SE London as a wholeImpact on LewishamresidentsBlue light ambulance
1.4 mins extra 7.4 mins extra
Travel by private transport
2.2 mins extra 11.0 mins extra
Journeys by public transport
2.7 mins extra 14.1 mins extra
Inadequate basis for estimating travel journeys
In the Draft Report of the TSA, an astonishing admission was offered on the source of the TSA’s
travel data. The TSA used its commissioned Deloitte
analysis of data derived from Google mapstravel time analysis (p25, Health and Equality Impact Assessment Scoping Report, Appendix H).
Footnote 28 helpfully advises how typical Deloitte’s quoted times might b
e with the followingcautionary note:
Private transport travel times are calculated on the basis of average speeds and 
travel times during periods of no traffic. Travel times may be higher during periods of busy traffic.’ 
If this were not so outrageous it would be funny. Less funny if you are setting off at any normal time of day
when there is traffic 
, let alone in rush hour traffic between 7.30-9.30am or 4.30-6.30pm for anappointment, or a visit to A&E, or a visit to a relative in the hospital.
Dishonest use of data
The TSA has been selective in presentation of data based on unrealistic scenarios for travel times toA&E and hospital (times with no traffic) and has been deceptive in his misleading use of statistics. Heand his office and the Department of Health has regularly reported an average impact on the 1.64
million of SE London without comment, in order to disguise an impact for Lewisham’s
residents which is
more than
 five times worse,
even in the unrealistic conditions of the estimation.
Impact on blue light ambulance transit with critically ill patients
The standard to be met is that critically ill people need to be within 30 minutes of A&E.Currently, this is safely met for 95% Lewisham residents who are within 18 minutes or less of theirA&E, by blue light ambulance
using the TSA’s own data, and the remaining 5% are still highly likely
to arrive within the 30 minute standard.
South London Press, Friday 8
March: ‘
 Journey time claim is a joke and I proved 

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