Commodities Daily Report

Saturday| March 30, 2013

Agricultural Commodities

Content
News & Market Highlights Chana Sugar Oilseed Complex Spices Complex Kapas/Cotton

Research Team
Vedika Narvekar - Sr. Research Analyst vedika.narvekar@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6130 Anuj Choudhary - Research Analyst anuj.choudhary@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6132

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Commodities Daily Report

Saturday| March 30, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
News in brief
Labour shortage may impact wheat procurement in Punjab
With wheat procurement in Punjab likely to commence from Monday, commission agents in the state are busy arranging labour. While the official procurement continues till June, the highest arrivals happen in April. The Food Corporation of India ( FCI) has set an ambitious target to procure 13- 14 million tonnes this season. Thousands of labourers are required for loading, unloading, cleaning, filling the gunny bags and lifting the bags. Punjab depends on labourers from other states such as Bihar and Uttar Pradesh ( UP) to carry out procurement. However, there has been acute labour shortage since the rollout of the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act, as labourers now get employment in their own states. (Source: Business Standard)

Market Highlights (% change)

Last Prev. day

as on March 28, 2013

WoW MoM YoY

Sensex Nifty INR/$ Nymex Crude Oil - $/bbl Comex Gold - $/oz

18836 5683 54.29 97.23 1595

0.70 0.73 -0.36 0.92 -0.06

0.23 0.42 -0.30 5.17 -1.18

-0.14 -0.18 -0.16 5.63 1.08

10.01 9.39 6.90 -7.76 -3.81

.Source: Reuters

Wheat harvesting may be delayed in Punjab, Haryana

Wheat harvesting is set to get delayed by 1015 days in wheat growing states of Punjab and Haryana because of untimely rains and unanticipated low temperature. Though there were some reports of crop flattening in a few areas of Punjab because of rains lashing various parts of the northern region, farm experts asserted that there was not going to be any adverse impact on overall output of winter crop in both these states. However, experts fear of damage to crop if rains accompanied by thunderstorm occur in wheat growing areas. There is going to be delay of more than 10 days in harvesting of wheat crop in Punjab and Haryana due to rains and unexpected cool temperature prevailing in these parts of the country, said Karnalbased Directorate of Wheat Research, Project Director, Indu Sharma. (Source: Business Line)

Sugar output in India to drop on dry weather

Sugar output in India, the biggest producer after Brazil, is set to decline for a second year as a drought curbs planting, potentially increasing imports. The harvest will fall 6.5 per cent to 23 mt in the year starting October 1 from 24.6 mt this year, according to the median of estimates of four traders, an analyst, aproducer and an industry official compiled by Bloomberg. That would be less than the local demand of more than 24 mt in 2013- 2014, said Narendra Murkumbi, managing director of Shree Renuka Sugars, Indias biggest refiner. Sugar has slumped 50 per cent in New York since reaching athree- decade high in February 2011, as production from Brazil to Thailand and China increased, widening a global glut. Falling Indian production after three years of surplus may boost imports and help curb a slide in prices, which has partly helped global food costs tracked by the United Nations Food & Agriculture Organisation to fall for a fifth month in February. (Source: Business Standard)

Sugar market looks to new fiscal for direction

Sugar spot and futures prices have been heading towards south for over a month on ample supply and slack demand. On the Vashi wholesale terminal market, spot rates dropped further by Rs 20-30 a quintal on Friday. Naka prices declined by Rs 20 as producers sold sugar at Rs 10-15 lower previous day evening. The sentiment was weak due to higher selling. Sources said that due to year ending and month-end, traders were not interested in making a big deal. Demand in start of the new month will decide the further trend. Government has declared ample quota for the next six month (April-September) at 104 lakh tonnes which is 7.50 lakh tonnes more than same period last year. (Source: Business Line)

Palm oil prices at lowest since March 19

Malaysian palm oil futures fell to a more- than- one- week low on Thursday, with investors avoiding risky moves as they await key industry export data due next week. Fears over Cypruss bailout deal damaging the euro zones fragile recovery roiled global financial and commodity markets, including palm, most of this week and kept investors on edge. Palms dismal export performance in the first 25 days of the month also upset market players and weighed on prices, which have lost more than three per cent this week. Exports fell 7.5 per cent over the period from March 1- 25, from a month ago, due to a slowdown in shipments of crude palm oil. Traders are now waiting for cargo surveyor data on exports for the full month, due next Monday, and industry regulator data on output and inventory, due in midApril, to gauge palms direction in the coming months. (Source: Business Standard)

Rain lashes wheat-growing areas, still record output seen

Erratic weather has affected the standing wheat crop in isolated pockets of northern States, but still the country may produce a record harvest of 96 million tonnes this year. The recent scattered rains accompanied by thunderstorms has affected about 2-3 per cent of the wheat crop area. However, the output would still be higher than last year at around 96 mt as temperature has largely been favourable for the crop, said Indu Sharma, Director of the Karnal-based Directorate of Wheat Research. Wheat production stood at a record 93.9 mt last year. Wheat has been planted in over 298 million hectares this year, almost the same as last year. In recent days, major wheat growing States such as Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh and even Madhya Pradesh have received scattered rain and thunderstorms due to western disturbance. On Thursday, parts of Uttar Pradesh, Delhi and its surrounding areas received rains. (Source: Business Line)

Its a hot potato, thanks to steady demand

You may soon have to shell out more for your favourite potato wafers or wedges. In just a fortnight, potato prices in West Bengal, the top producer, have inched up by almost Rs 60 a quintal in the wholesale market. The price rise effect will be felt particularly in Maharashtra, Odisha, Tamil Nadu and Bihar that buy the tuber from the eastern State. Prices are likely to inch up by Rs 100-150 a quintal in the next one/two months because of the steady demand from other States, market sources said. The wholesale price of the Jyoti variety is ruling at Rs 560 a quintal compared with Rs 500 two weeks ago. (Source: Business Line)

Cotton Corp seeks to export 10 lakh bales

Public sector Cotton Corporation of India has sought permission to export 10 lakh bales (170 kg each) of cotton - roughly half the stock held by it - in a representation to the Directorate General of Foreign Trade (DGFT) to benefit from the higher international prices. The Textile Ministry is also keeping an eye on rising registration of shipments for exports by private traders as high exports could lead to a shortage of cotton in the domestic market, two Textile Ministry officials told Business Line. We want CCI to export some of its cotton stock as it would get a higher price in the international market. (Source: Business Line)

Financial year-end keeps away edible oil stockists

Barring groundnut oil which rose by Rs 10, all other edible oils ruled unchanged on Friday. Extended loss in Malaysian palm oil futures tracking previous days late evening bearish US Department of Agriculture soya reports pulled down all market sentiments. In Mumbai, volumes remained negligible and isolated as stockists stayed off due to financial year end. (Source: Business Line)

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Commodities Daily Report

Saturday| March 30, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Chana
After declined on Thursday on account of increasing arrivals of new crop in the physical markets coupled with higher output expectations. The spot as well as the futures settled 0.69% and 0.69% lower respectively. Arrivals have gained momentum in MP, the largest chana producing state and shall soon commence in Rajasthan, the second largest producer. Thus, sharp upside is capped in the chana prices. New chana desi crop contain around 10 -12% moisture. The government has extended ban on export of pulses till March 31, 2014. According to DGFT, there is an exception with export of kabuli chana, organic pulses and lentils being allowed up to a ceiling of 10,000 metric tonnes per annum.

Market Highlights
Unit Rs/qtl Rs/qtl Last 3277 3334 Prev day -0.69 -0.69

as on March 28, 2013 % change WoW MoM -5.01 -6.63 -2.60 0.00 YoY -6.14 -8.05

Chana Spot - NCDEX (Delhi) Chana- NCDEX Apr'13 Futures

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart - Chana

NCDEX April contract

Chana Sowing
Higher returns earned in 2012, coupled with a hike in minimum support prices (MSP), have helped expand overall acreage in 2012-13 season. The Centre has hiked the MSP by 14 per cent to Rs 3,200 a quintal for chana and as part of its strategy to encourage farmers to grow more pulses to reduce import dependence. Chana sowing in the current season is 5.65% higher at 95.17 lakh ha compared to previous year. Acreage is up in Rajasthan, Maharashtra, MP and AP at 15.7 lakh ha, 12.53 lakh ha, 32.99 lakh ha and 7.33 lakh ha respectively.

Production
According to second advance Estimates released on 8 Feb 2013, Total pulses output for 2012-13 season has been pegged at 17.58 mn tn, down 3.3% compared to previous year. The target for 2012-13 pulses crop output was set at 18.24 million tonne during the year. However, drought conditions have hampered kharif pulses output, which has been only partially offset by Rabi pulses output, especially chana. Out of the total pulses output, kharif output is estimated at 23% lower at 5.48 mn tn while rabi pulses output is pegged 8.72% higher at 12.09 mn tn compared with the final estimates of 2011-12. There has been a sharp increase in the chana output estimates on the back of higher acreage and good yield. Chana output is expected to breach its 2010-11 record of 8.2 mn tn and is estimated at 8.57 mn tn for 2012-13. In its first advance estimates chana output was pegged at 7.9 mn tn. However, erratic weather in M.P. may lower the yield. Assocham estimates, 21 mn tn of pulses demand in 2012-13 and is likely to reach at 21.42 mn tn in 2013-14 and 21.91 MT in 2014-15. (Source: Agriwatch).
th

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Contract Chana Apr Futures Unit Rs./qtl Support

valid for Mar 30, 2013 Resistance 3355-3378

3285-3310

Trade Scenario
According to IBIS, imports of chana in the month of February declined to 0.46 lakh metric tonnes compared to 2.31 lakh metric tonnes during the previous month. India imports Chana mainly from Australia and Canada and higher availability in these countries at comparatively cheaper rates is seen boosting imports of Chana to meet the domestic shortfall. In Australia, total chickpea production in 201213 is estimated to have increased to a record 713000 tones as compared with 485000.

Outlook
Chana is expected to continue to decline today. Arrivals of chana may increase further once harvesting commences from the second largest producing state, Rajasthan. Increasing arrival pressure may keep chana prices under downside pressure. However, robust buying by the stockists at lower levels may prevent sharp fall in the chana prices.

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Commodities Daily Report

Saturday| March 30, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Sugar
Sugar futures declined on Thursday extending preceding session s losses on account of release of higher non levy quota for the next six months. However, reports that government may take sugar decontrol decision this week, supported prices at lower levels. The Central Government has decided to make available quantity of 104 lakh tons of sugar, as non-levy quota for open market sale, for the 6 months of April, 2013 to September, 2013.
The Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs will take up the issue of sugar decontrol during its meeting on Thursday, according to Union Minister of State for Food and Consumer Affairs K.V. Thomas. Barring two key regulations with respect to fixing sugarcane price and sharing of 70 per cent revenue by sugar firms with farmers, the Rangarajan Committee report has suggested giving freedom to mills to sell sugar in the open market and having a stable export and import policy.

Market Highlights
Unit Sugar Spot- NCDEX (Kolhapur) Sugar M- NCDEX Apr '13 Futures Rs/qtl Last 3033

as on March 28, 2013 % Change Prev. day WoW -0.20 -2.13 MoM -4.45 YoY 5.91

Rs/qtl

2893

-0.75

-2.40

-4.96

3.03

Source: Reuters

International Prices
Unit Sugar No 5- LiffeMay'13 Futures Sugar No 11-ICE May '13 Futures $/tonne $/tonne Last 503.3 392.44

as on March 28, 2013 % Change Prev day WoW -1.00 -1.06 -4.75 -3.02 MoM -0.44 -3.18 YoY -20.40 -27.21

Agriculture Minister Sharad Pawar said that the sugar output in 2013-14 may fall to around 24 mn tn against current years output of 24.5 mn tn. There are reports that some mills in Maharashtra have stopped crushing due to non availability of cane.

.Source: Reuters

Technical Chart - Sugar

NCDEX April contract

Domestic Production and Exports

India is likely to produce 24.6 mn tn of sugar in 2012-13 year ending on Sept. 30, higher than the previous estimate of 24.3 mn tn, the Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) said last week. Indian sugar mills produced 21.05 mn tn of the sweetener between Oct. 1 and March 15, down 1% from a year ago. With the opening stocks of 6.5 mn tn, domestic Sugar supplies are estimated at 30.8 mn tn against the domestic consumption of around 22. 5 mln tn for 2012-13. Exports are not viable as international prices have also declined significantly.

Global Sugar Updates

Liffe sugar as well as Raw sugar Futures on ICE settled 1% and 1.06% lower on Thursday on account of expectations of abundant supplies from the 2013-14 harvest in the centre-south of Brazil and other leading producers, such as Thailand, Mexico and the United States. According to FO Litch, Brazil's center-south sugar production is expected to reach 36.2 million tonnes in 2013/14, up from 34.1 million tonnes in the previous season. Czarnikow on Wednesday raised its forecast for a projected global sugar surplus to 9.1 mn tn, raw value, up from Decembers projection of 7.8 mn tn in 2012-13, citing higher-than-expected production in the key centresouth region of Brazil. The main adjustment on the production side is the increase in CS Brazil output following a successful end to the crushing season at a new record high of 34.1 million tonnes.

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Contract Sugar Apr NCDEX Futures Unit Rs./qtl Support

valid for Mar 30, 2013 Resistance 2905-2920

2860-2880

Outlook
Prices are expected to trade on a negative note due to higher levy quota. Continuous selling by mills at lower rates due to financial year ending and need based demand is keeping sugar markets under pressure. However, emergence of demand from the bulk manufacturers may support the prices at lower levels. Any decision by the government on the decontrol front may also support prices.

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Commodities Daily Report

Saturday| March 30, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Oilseeds
Soybean: After rising sharply over the few sessions, soybean
futures declined from higher levels on Thursday due to profit taking at higher levels. However, prices recovered from lower levels towards the end due to lower supplies in the domestic markets. Exports of Soybean meal during February, 2013 was 5,77,589 tones as compared to 3,70,524 tonnes in February, 2012 showing an increase by 55.88% over the last year. According to the second advance estimates, 2012-13 oilseed output is pegged at 29.4 mn tn, down by 1.1%, while soybean output is pegged higher at 12.9 mn tn, up 3.2%.

Market Highlights
% Change Unit Soybean Spot- NCDEX (Indore) Soybean- NCDEX Apr '13 Futures Ref Soy oil SpotNCDEX(Indore) Ref Soy oil- NCDEX Apr '13 Futures Rs/qtl Rs/qtl Rs/10 kgs Rs/10 kgs Last 3747 3722 693.3 693.9 Prev day 0.40 -0.28 0.34 0.00

as on March 28, 2013

WoW 3.42 5.48 0.94 2.57

MoM 10.73 11.94 0.83 1.91

YoY 27.54 23.70 -6.44 -6.67

International Markets
Larger than expected stocks report released by the USDA, Soybean Futures on CBOT declined sharply by 3.37% on Friday. Stocks were reported at 999 mn bushels against expectations of 905 mn bushels. US soybean plantings intentions for the 2013/14 crop year reported at 77.126 mn acres, below market forecasts for 78.394 mn acres. Informa trimmed its forecast of U.S. 2013 soybean plantings to 78.457 million acres, from 78.777 million in January, but it is still up from the 77.198 mn acres seeded to soy in 2012. There are reports that China has cancelled some cargoes from Brazil due shipment delays. China's April imports will likely be less than 4.5 mn tn, lower than market expectations of about 5 mn tn, due to severe port congestion in Brazil that has delayed shipments.

Source: Reuters

as on March 28, 2013 International Prices Soybean- CBOTMay'13 Futures Soybean Oil - CBOTMay'13 Futures Unit USc/ Bushel USc/lbs Last 1405 50.11 Prev day -3.37 -1.40 WoW -3.05 -0.61 MoM -4.71 2.64
Source: Reuters

YoY 2.72 -8.22

Crude Palm Oil

as on March 29, 2013 % Change Prev day WoW -1.35 -0.76 -4.88 0.22

Refined Soy Oil: Ref soy oil settled unchanged on Thursday while
CPO settled lower by 0.76% tracking weak BMD prices. India's imports of palm oil could rise more than 17% in the year to October 2013 to stand at 9 mn tn, compared with 7.67 mn tn of palm oil in 2011/12 as the edible oil is the cheapest available, despite an import duty. India's vegetable oil imports fell about 17 percent to 969,175 tonnes last month, with palm oil imports dropping to 805,362 tonnes. According to Dorab Mistry, Malaysian palm oil futures could rise to 2,400-2,700 ringgit ($770 to $865) per tons by the end of May due to weaker production and falling trend in palm oil inventories. By end of June 2013, Malaysian palm oil stocks will dip below 2 mn tn and Indonesian stocks would below 4 mn tn.
CPO-Bursa Malaysia Apr '13 Contract CPO-MCX- Mar '13 Futures

Unit MYR/Tonne Rs/10 kg

Last 2340 456.2

MoM -1.47 1.13

YoY -32.82 -22.90

Source: Reuters

RM Seed
Unit RM Seed SpotNCDEX (Jaipur) RM Seed- NCDEX Apr'13 Futures Rs/100 kgs Rs/100 kgs Last 3433 3465 Prev day 0.45 0.20 WoW -0.51 0.46

as on March 28, 2013 MoM -4.65 2.27

Source: Reuters

YoY -9.05 -9.01

Rape/mustard Seed: Mustard Futures gained 0.2% on Thursday

tracking positive edible oil market while increasing arrival pressure of new crop capped sharp upside. Higher output expectations also exerted downside pressure on the prices. Sowing of Mustard seed is up by 2.2% at 67.23 lakh ha. Agriculture ministry in its third advance estimates, pegged mustard output at 7.36 mn tn, up by 11.5%. MSP of mustard seed is fixed at Rs 3000 per qtl.

Technical Chart Soybean

NCDEX April contract

Outlook
Soybean prices are expected to trade with upward bias on dwindling supplies in the domestic markets. However, higher stocks in the US coupled with ongoing harvesting pressure in South America may pressurize prices. Mustard seed may also trade higher tracking positive edible oilseeds. Soy oil and CPO is expected to trade higher on expectations of higher exports, lower stocks. Prices may find support on expectations that output may fall due to seasonally lower yield.
Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Contract Soy Oil Apr NCDEX Futures Soybean NCDEX Apr Futures RM Seed NCDEX Apr Futures CPO MCX Apr Futures Unit Rs./qtl Rs./qtl Rs./qtl Rs./qtl

valid for Mar 30, 2013 Support 688-691 3645-3685 3420-3445 455-458 Resistance 699-702 3760-3800 3480-3495 465-467

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Commodities Daily Report

Saturday| March 30, 2013

Agricultural Commodities h
Black Pepper
Pepper Futures traded on a positive note due to good demand for the Kerala crop. Interstate traders, especially from Tamil Nadu are actively buying the Kerala crop. Low stocks in the warehouses coupled with thin supplies have supported the prices. However, higher supplies from Karnataka region kept spot prices under check. Karnataka crop is trading at lower levels due inferior quality. Food Safety and Standards Authority of India sealed the entire quantity of pepper stored in six warehouses in Kerala of about 8,000 tonnes. Some exports of Karnataka pepper from Mangalore port have been reported. However, exports demand for Indian pepper in the international markets is weak due to price parity. The Spot settled 0.35% lower while the Futures settled 1.16% higher on Thursday. According to a circular issued by NCDEX on 09/02/2013, launch of June 2013 expiry contract in Pepper which is scheduled on February 11, 2013, has been postponed till further notice. The revised launch date will be announced in due course. Spices Board has announced plans to import high yielding Madagascar variety that was behind the record productivity in Vietnam. It could raise productivity of Indian pepper from 2,000 kg/ha to 7,000 kg/ha. Pepper prices in the international market are being quoted at $6,925/tn (C&F, New York). Vietnams Asta is quoted at $6,925-6,975/tn, Indonesia GM-1 is quoted at $6,900/tn and Brazil Asta is quoted at $6,600/tn.

Market Highlights
Unit Pepper SpotNCDEX (Kochi) Pepper- NCDEX Apr '13 Futures Rs/qtl Rs/qtl Last 36314 35860 % Change Prev day -0.35 1.16

as on March 28, 2013 WoW -0.78 0.93 MoM -7.88 -4.67 YoY -9.68 -12.15

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Black Pepper

NCDEX April contract

Exports and Imports

Indias pepper exports in 2012 have been reported at just 12,000 tonnes while imports reported at 15,000 tonnes making India a net importer. (Source: Agriwatch) According to Vietnam Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) exports of pepper in 2012 stood at 116,962 mt, Vietnam shipped 12000 mt of pepper in January 2013. Pepper imports by U.S. the largest consumer of the spice declined 9% in 2012 period to 62,458 tn as compared to 68,489 tn in 2011. Exports from Indonesia posted significant decrease of 42% as compared to previous year. Exports stood at 36,500 tonnes as compared to 62,599 tonnes in the last year. Brazil exported 25,900 tn pepper during Jan-Nov 2012, around 20% lower compared with 32,650 tn in the same period last year. Exports from Malaysia 8,300 tn pepper during Jan-Oct 2012, lower by 30% last year while exports in October stood at 1,077 mt in.

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Contract Black Pepper NCDEX Apr Futures Unit Rs/qtl

valid for Mar 30, 2013 Support 35430-35630 Resistance 36100-36225

Production and Arrivals

The arrivals in the spot market were reported at 19 tonnes while off takes were reported at 17 tonnes on Thursday. As per IPC, Global pepper production in 2012 is projected at 3.27 lk tn, up compared with 3.18 lk tn in 2011. Production for 2013 is projected at 316832 tn. Indonesian pepper output is expected to rise by 24% and in Vietnam by 10%. According to estimates, pepper output in Vietnam is estimated to be 1.05 lakh tonne in 2012 as compared to 1.1 lakh tonne in 2011. Brazil is also expected to produce 22,000 tn this year. Domestic consumption of Pepper in the world is expected to grow by 3.03% to 1.25 lakh tonnes while exports are likely to grow by 1.48% to 2.46 lakh tonnes in 2012. (Source: Pepper trade board) Pepper production in 2012-13 is expected around 60,000-63,000 tonnes. Harvesting of pepper in some regions in Kerala are already complete.

Outlook
Pepper is expected to trade on a mixed note today. Higher arrivals of pepper from Karnataka may put pressure on the prices. However, low stocks coupled with good demand from the upcountry markets may support prices at lower levels. Reports that farmers are holding back stocks may also support prices at lower levels.

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Commodities Daily Report

Saturday| March 30, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Jeera
After trading on a positive note on Thursday on account of good export as well as domestic demand. However, higher arrivals of the new crop have capped sharp gains. Arrivals of the new crop are averaging around 26,000 bags/ day and are likely to improve in the coming days. New crop from Rajasthan is expected to enter the markets from April. Higher sowing as well as conducive weather in Gujarat, the main jeera growing region has increased output expectations. According to Gujarat State Agri Dept. sowing in Gujarat is reported at 3.352 lakh ha in 2013 compared with 3.719 lakh ha last year. According to the Rajasthan State Budget 2013-14, it has exempted jeera from VAT. The spot settled unchanged while the Futures settled 1.02% higher on Thursday. According to markets sources the exports target has already been achieved due to a supply crunch in the global markets. Supply concerns from Syria and Turkey still exists. Expectations are that export orders may still be diverted to India from the international markets due to lack of supplies from Syria on back of the ongoing civil war. Production in Syria and Turkey is being reported around 17,000 tonnes and around 4,000-5,000 tonnes, lesser than expectations. Jeera prices of Indian origin are being offered in the international market at $2,400 tn (FOB Mumbai) while Syria and Turkey are not offering. Carryover stocks of Jeera in the domestic market is expected to be around 5-6 lakh bags.

Market Highlights
Unit Jeera Spot- NCDEX (Unjha) Jeera- NCDEX Apr '13 Futures Rs/qtl Rs/qtl Last 13343 13150 Prev day 0.00 1.02

as on March 28, 2013 % Change WoW -0.41 0.17 MoM 0.16 1.23 YoY 7.36 10.09

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Jeera

NCDEX April contract

Production, Arrivals and Exports

Arrivals in Unjha were reported at 45,000 tn on Monday. Production of Jeera in 2012-13 is expected around 38-40 lakh bags (55 kgs each), same as last year. According to Spices Board of India, exports of Jeera in April 2012 stood at 2,500 tonnes as compared to 2,369 tonnes in April 2011, an increase of 6%.
Source: Telequote

Market Highlights
Prev day 0.00 -1.44

as on March 28, 2013 % Change

Unit Turmeric SpotNCDEX (N'zmbad) Turmeric- NCDEX Apr '13 Futures Rs/qtl Rs/qtl

Last 6414 6450

WoW -1.65 -6.14

MoM 18.33 4.47

YoY 67.32 51.69

Outlook
Jeera Futures are expected to continue to trade higher today due to export as well as domestic demand. However, higher arrivals of the new crop may cap sharp upside in the prices. In the medium term, prices are likely to stay firm as Syria and Turkey have stopped shipments.

Turmeric
Turmeric Futures declined on Thursday on account of higher supplies of the new crop. However, good export and domestic demand coupled with output concerns limited downside. Unseasonal rains in Andhra Pradesh have damaged about 9240 tonnes of turmeric. The Spot settled unchanged while the Futures settled 1.44% lower on Thursday.

Technical Chart Turmeric

NCDEX April contract

Production, Arrivals and Exports

Arrivals in Erode and Nizamabad mandi stood at 11,000 bags and 20,000 bags respectively on Monday. Expectations are that production may be lower by 40-50%. There are reports of some crop damage in Erode region. Turmeric production in 2012-13 is expected around 50 lakh bags. Production in Nizamabad is expected around 12 lakh bags. Production in 2011-12 is projected at historical high of 10.62 lakh tn. It is estimated that next years carryover stocks would be around 10 lakh bags. According to Spices Board of India, exports of Turmeric in April 2012 increased by 1% at 7,300 tn as compared to 7,230 tn in April 2011. Outlook Turmeric is expected to trade with a negative bias. Higher supplies of the fresh crop, huge carryover stocks and higher margin on the long side may pressurize prices. However, good overseas as well as domestic demand coupled with crop damage and lower output concerns may support prices.

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Unit Jeera NCDEX Apr Futures Turmeric NCDEX April Futures Rs/qtl Rs/qtl

Valid for Mar 30, 2013

Support 12980-13055 6310-6380 Resistance 13230-13355 6500-6540

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Commodities Daily Report

Saturday| March 30, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Kapas
NCDEX Kapas declined by 0.8% while MCX Cotton gained 0.38% on Thursday. Prices have declined sharply on reports state-run Cotton Corporation of India (CCI) would offload stocks in the open market to augment supplies. However, there are expectations of higher exports. Lower supplies in the domestic markets and rising cotton prices have caused concerns for textile industry, which is demanding government to direct CCI and NAFED to offload the cotton stock to domestic mills. CCI is expected to offload 4 lakh bales in the domestic market and NAFED will sell 3.63 lakh cotton bales from the first week of April 2013. India's imports of cotton this year could reach 1.5 mn bales, missing earlier estimates of more than 2 mn as the govt may to start selling its stockpiles. Cotton supplies since the beginning of the year in October 2012 until February 10, 2013 were down at 183.4 lakh bales, down from 189.27 lakh bales a year earlier.

Market Highlights
Unit Rs/20 kgs Rs/Bale Last 934 18720

as on March 28, 2013 % Change Prev. day WoW -0.80 -3.11 0.38 -0.05 MoM -7.20 -0.05 YoY #N/A 11.10

NCDEX Kapas Apr Futures MCX Cotton Mar Futures

Source: Reuters

International Prices
ICE Cotton Cot look A Index Unit USc/Lbs Last 88.46 81.35

as on March 28, 2013 % Change Prev day WoW -0.08 0.29 0.00 0.00 MoM 8.69 0.00 YoY -5.92 -29.20

Source: Reuters

Domestic Production and Consumption

According to Cotton Advisory Boards (CAB) estimates (23 Jan 2013) for 2012-13 season that commenced in October, domestic cotton production is pegged 330 lakh bales, down from the previous years estimates of 353 lakh bales. However, higher exports and domestic consumption can be met through revised higher opening stocks of 40 lakh bales and higher imports. After witnessing record exports in 2011-12 season, Indian exports could witness significant fall this season on the back of lower availability along with unattractive domestic cotton prices. CAB estimates cotton exports at 80 lakh bales this season, compared with 128.8 lakh bales last year.
th

Technical Chart - Kapas

NCDEX April contract

Global Cotton Updates

ICE Cotton futures traded on a flat note and settled marginally lower by 0.08% on Thursday. According to the USDA report released on Thursday, planting intentions for the 2013-14 season are said to be at a 4 year low. Also, there are expectations of good export demand from China. Reports of India and China releasing stocks from the state reserve led to a sharp decline last week. China, the worlds largest consumer, is expected to sell about 3 mn tn of cotton this year from state reserves of around 10 mn tn. USDA has initially forecasted US Cotton acreage for 2013-14 season, at smallest in 20 yrs, however, with recent surge in prices, farmers may decide to plant more cotton. The planting intention data is schedule to be released on 28th march 2013.
Source: Telequote

Technical Chart - Cotton

MCX March contract

Outlook
In the current week, we expect Cotton prices to trade on a mixed note with a positive bias after US cotton planting intentions were reported at a 4 year low. However, sharp upside maybe capped as supplies may increase in the open market.

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Contract Kapas NCDEX April Futures Cotton MCX March Futures Unit Rs/20 kgs Rs/bale

valid for Mar 30, 2013 Support 917-926 18780-18900 Resistance 945-956 19180-19280

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