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Daily Agri Report, March 30

Daily Agri Report, March 30

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Published by Angel Broking
30 March, 2013
30 March, 2013

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Published by: Angel Broking on Mar 30, 2013
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Commodities Daily Report
 
Agricultural Commodities
Saturday| March 30, 2013www.angelcommodities.com
 
Content 
News & Market HighlightsChanaSugarOilseed ComplexSpices ComplexKapas/Cotton 
Angel Commodities Broking Pvt. Ltd.
Registered Office: G-1, Ackruti Trade Centre, Rd. No. 7, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093.Corporate Office: 6th Floor, Ackruti Star, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093. Tel: (022) 2921 2000MCX Member ID: 12685 / FMC Regn No: MCX / TCM / CORP / 0037 NCDEX: Member ID 00220 / FMC Regn No: NCDEX / TCM / CORP / 0302
Disclaimer:
The information and opinions contained in the document have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. The company does not warrant its accuracy, completeness andcorrectness. The document is not, and should not be construed as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodities. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published, in whole or in
part, by any recipient hereof for any purpose without prior permission from “Angel Commodities Broking (P) Ltd”. Your feedback is appreciated on
Research Team
Vedika Narvekar - Sr. Research Analyst Anuj Choudhary - Research Analystvedika.narvekar@angelbroking.com anuj.choudhary@angelbroking.com(022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6130 (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6132
 
 
Commodities Daily Report
 
Agricultural Commodities
Saturday| March 30, 2013www.angelcommodities.com
 
Market Highlights
 
(% change)
 
as on March 28, 2013
 
Last Prev. day WoW MoM YoY
Sensex
18836 0.70 0.23 -0.14 10.01
Nifty
5683 0.73 0.42 -0.18 9.39
INR/$
54.29 -0.36 -0.30 -0.16 6.90
Nymex Crude Oil - $/bbl
97.23 0.92 5.17 5.63 -7.76
Comex Gold - $/oz
1595 -0.06 -1.18 1.08 -3.81
.Source: Reuters
Wheat harvesting may be delayed in Punjab, Haryana
Wheat harvesting is set to get delayed by 10
15 days in wheat growingstates of Punjab and Haryana because of untimely rains andunanticipated low temperature. Though there were some reports of cropflattening in a few areas of Punjab because of rains lashing various partsof the northern region, farm experts asserted that there was not going tobe any adverse impact on overall output of winter crop in both thesestates. However, experts fear of damage to crop if rains accompanied bythunderstorm occur in wheat growing areas.
“There is going to be delay
of more than 10 days in harvesting of wheat crop in Punjab and Haryanadue to rains and unexpected cool temperature prevailing in these parts
of the country,” said Karnal—
based Directorate of Wheat Research,Project Director, Indu Sharma.
Source: Business Line)
 
Sugar market looks to new fiscal for direction
Sugar spot and futures prices have been heading towards south for overa month on ample supply and slack demand. On the Vashi wholesaleterminal market, spot rates dropped further by Rs 20-30 a quintal onFriday. Naka prices declined by Rs 20 as producers sold sugar at Rs 10-15lower previous day evening. The sentiment was weak due to higherselling. Sources said that due to year ending and month-end, traderswere not interested in making a big deal. Demand in start of the newmonth will decide the further trend. Government has declared amplequota for the next six month (April-September) at 104 lakh tonnes whichis 7.50 lakh tonnes more than same period last year.
Source: Business Line)
Rain lashes wheat-growing areas, still record output seen
Erratic weather has affected the standing wheat crop in isolated pocketsof northern States, but still the country may produce a record harvest of 96 million tonnes this year.
“The recent scattered rains accompanied by
thunderstorms has affected about 2-3 per cent of the wheat crop area.However, the output would still be higher than last year at around 96 mt
as temperature has largely been favourable for the crop,” said Indu
Sharma, Director of the Karnal-based Directorate of Wheat Research.Wheat production stood at a record 93.9 mt last year. Wheat has beenplanted in over 298 million hectares this year, almost the same as lastyear. In recent days, major wheat growing States such as Punjab,Haryana, Uttar Pradesh and even Madhya Pradesh have receivedscattered rain and thunderstorms due to western disturbance. OnThursday, parts of Uttar Pradesh, Delhi and its surrounding areasreceived rains.
 
Source: Business Line)
Cotton Corp seeks to export 10 lakh bales
Public sector Cotton Corporation of India has sought permission toexport 10 lakh bales (170 kg each) of cotton - roughly half the stock heldby it - in a representation to the Directorate General of Foreign Trade(DGFT) to benefit from the higher international prices. The TextileMinistry is also keeping an eye on rising registration of shipments forexports by private traders as high exports could lead to a shortage of cotton in the domestic market, two Textile Ministry officials told BusinessLine.
“We want CCI to export some of its cotton stock as it
would get ahigher price in the international market.
Source: Business Line)
News in brief 
Labour shortage may impact wheat procurement in Punjab
With wheat procurement in Punjab likely to commence from Monday,commission agents in the state are busy arranging labour. While theofficial procurement continues till June, the highest arrivals happen inApril. The Food Corporation of India ( FCI) has set an ambitious target toprocure 13- 14 million tonnes this season. Thousands of labourers arerequired for loading, unloading, cleaning, filling the gunny bags and liftingthe bags. Punjab depends on labourers from other states such as Biharand Uttar Pradesh ( UP) to carry out procurement. However, there hasbeen acute labour shortage since the rollout of the Mahatma GandhiNational Rural Employment Guarantee Act, as labourers now getemployment in their own states.
Source: Business Standard)
 
Sugar output in India to drop on dry weather
Sugar output in India, the biggest producer after Brazil, is set to declinefor a second year as a drought curbs planting, potentially increasingimports. The harvest will fall 6.5 per cent to 23 mt in the year startingOctober 1 from 24.6 mt this year, according to the median of estimatesof four traders, an analyst, aproducer and an industry official compiled byBloomberg. That would be less than the local demand of more than 24mt in 2013- 2014, said Narendra Murkumbi, managing director of ShreeRenuka Sugars, Indias biggest refiner. Sugar has slumped 50 per cent inNew York since reaching athree- decade high in February 2011, asproduction from Brazil to Thailand and China increased, widening aglobal glut. Falling Indian production after three years of surplus mayboost imports and help curb a slide in prices, which has partly helpedglobal food costs tracked by the United Nations Food & AgricultureOrganisation to fall for a fifth month in February.
Source: Business Standard)
 
Palm oil prices at lowest since March 19
Malaysian palm oil futures fell to a more- than- one- week low onThursday, with investors avoiding risky moves as they await key industryexport data due next week.
Fears over Cyprus’s bailout deal damaging
the euro zones fragile recovery roiled global financial and commoditymarkets, including palm, most of this week and kept investors on edge.
Palm’s dismal export performance in the first 25 days of the month also
upset market players and weighed on prices, which have lost more thanthree per cent this week. Exports fell 7.5 per cent over the period fromMarch 1- 25, from a month ago, due to a slowdown in shipments of crude palm oil. Traders are now waiting for cargo surveyor data onexports for the full month, due next Monday, and industry regulator dataon output and inventory, due in midApril, to gauge palms direction in thecoming months.
Source: Business Standard)
 
It’s a hot potato, thanks to steady demand
 
You may soon have to shell out more for your favourite potato wafers orwedges. In just a fortnight, potato prices in West Bengal, the topproducer, have inched up by almost Rs 60 a quintal in the wholesalemarket. The price rise effect will be felt particularly in Maharashtra,Odisha, Tamil Nadu and Bihar that buy the tuber from the eastern State.Prices are likely to inch up by Rs 100-150 a quintal in the next one/twomonths because of the steady demand from other States, marketsources said. The wholesale price of the Jyoti variety is ruling at Rs 560 aquintal compared with Rs 500 two weeks ago.
 
Source: Business Line)
 
Financial year-end keeps away edible oil stockists
Barring groundnut oil which rose by Rs 10, all other edible oils ruledunchanged on Friday. Extended loss in Malaysian palm oil futures
tracking previous day’s late evening bearish US Department of 
Agriculture soya reports pulled down all market sentiments. In Mumbai,volumes remained negligible and isolated as stockists stayed off due tofinancial year end.
Source: Business Line)
 
 
 
Commodities Daily Report
 
Agricultural Commodities
Saturday| March 30, 2013www.angelcommodities.com
 
Market Highlights
 
as on March 28, 2013
 
% change
Unit Last Prev day WoW MoM YoY
Chana Spot - NCDEX(Delhi)
Rs/qtl 3277 -0.69 -5.01 -6.63 -6.14
Chana- NCDEXApr'13 Futures
Rs/qtl 3334 -0.69 -2.60 0.00 -8.05
Source: Reuters
Technical Chart - Chana
 
NCDEX April contract
Source: Telequote
 
Technical Outlook
 
valid for Mar 30, 2013
 
Contract Unit Support ResistanceChana Apr Futures
Rs./qtl 3285-3310 3355-3378
Chana
After declined on Thursday on account of increasing arrivals of new cropin the physical markets coupled with higher output expectations. Thespot as well as the futures settled 0.69% and 0.69% lower respectively.Arrivals have gained momentum in MP, the largest chana producing stateand shall soon commence in Rajasthan, the second largest producer.Thus, sharp upside is capped in the chana prices.New chana desi crop contain around 10 -12% moisture.The government has extended ban on export of pulses till March 31,2014. According to DGFT, there is an exception with export of kabulichana, organic pulses and lentils being allowed up to a ceiling of 10,000metric tonnes per annum.
Chana Sowing
Higher returns earned in 2012, coupled with a hike in minimum supportprices (MSP), have helped expand overall acreage in 2012-13 season. TheCentre has hiked the MSP by 14 per cent to Rs 3,200 a quintal for chanaand as part of its strategy to encourage farmers to grow more pulses toreduce import dependence.Chana sowing in the current season is 5.65% higher at 95.17 lakh hacompared to previous year. Acreage is up in Rajasthan, Maharashtra, MPand AP at 15.7 lakh ha, 12.53 lakh ha, 32.99 lakh ha and 7.33 lakh harespectively.
Production
 According to second advance Estimates released on 8
th
Feb 2013, Totalpulses output for 2012-13 season has been pegged at 17.58 mn tn, down3.3% compared to previous year. The target for 2012-13 pulses cropoutput was set at 18.24 million tonne during the year. However, droughtconditions have hampered kharif pulses output, which has been onlypartially offset by Rabi pulses output, especially chana.Out of the total pulses output, kharif output is estimated at 23% lower at5.48 mn tn while rabi pulses output is pegged 8.72% higher at 12.09 mntn compared with the final estimates of 2011-12.There has been a sharp increase in the chana output estimates on theback of higher acreage and good yield. Chana output is expected tobreach its 2010-11 record of 8.2 mn tn and is estimated at 8.57 mn tn for2012-13. In its first advance estimates chana output was pegged at 7.9mn tn. However, erratic weather in M.P. may lower the yield.Assocham estimates, 21 mn tn of pulses demand in 2012-13 and is likelyto reach at 21.42 mn tn in 2013-14 and 21.91 MT in 2014-15. (Source:Agriwatch).
Trade Scenario
According to IBIS, imports of chana in the month of February declined to0.46 lakh metric tonnes compared to 2.31 lakh metric tonnes during theprevious month.India imports Chana mainly from Australia and Canada and higheravailability in these countries at comparatively cheaper rates is seenboosting imports of Chana to meet the domestic shortfall.In Australia, total chickpea production in 2012
 –
13 is estimated to haveincreased to a record 713000 tones as compared with 485000.
 
Outlook
Chana is expected to continue to decline today. Arrivals of chana mayincrease further once harvesting commences from the second largestproducing state, Rajasthan. Increasing arrival pressure may keep chanaprices under downside pressure. However, robust buying by the stockistsat lower levels may prevent sharp fall in the chana prices.

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