Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Stephen D. Eule
Vice President for Climate and Technology
Institute for 21st Century Energy
US Chamber of Commerce
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Where We Are: Making Progress
Energy Policy Act of 2005
About $14 billion in tax credits for energy efficiency, clean coal, nuclear, renewables, etc. over 10 years
Loan Guarantees for new technologies that reduce GHG and air pollution - $67.5 billion available
$2 billion in standby support coverage for regulatory delay for 6 new nuclear power plants
Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007
Renewable Fuels Mandate - 36 billion gallons of biofuels annually by 2022—about 20% of projected gasoline
usage
Vehicle Fuel Economy Mandate - 35 miles per gallon by 2020
Lighting Mandate - Phase out inefficient (e.g., incandescent) bulbs by 2014
Appliance Mandates
Federal Facility Requirements - Reduce energy consumption 30 percent by 2015 & new federal buildings must
be carbon-neutral by 2030
Energy Improvement & Extension Act of 2008
$18 billion in tax credits - Extends many EPAct2005 tax credits
Farm Bill
Significant portion of proposed $50 billion Farm Bill Conservation Programs for terrestrial sequestration
States
RPS in over 26 states
24 states undertaking regulation
AEO 2002
AEO 2009
55
Ej/yr
37
18
Sources: Battelle Global Energy Technology Strategy Project; Climate Change Science Program. 2007, Scenarios of Greenhouse Gas Emissions
and Atmospheric Concentrations (MINICAM Results).
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Reductions in Global Emissions Needed
to Meet Range of Possible Goals
Cumulative global emissions reductions ranging from about 1,100 to
3,700 gigatons of CO2 equivalent would be need over the course of
the century to meet a range of atmospheric concentration goals (450
to 750 ppm).
Unconstrained Emissions Scenario
CO2 Emissions (GtCO2/yr)
Cumulative Emissions
Time
Source: Clarke, L. et al. 2006. Climate Change Mitigation: An Analysis of Advanced Technology Scenarios. Richland, WA: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory.
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How Big is One Gigaton1 of CO2?
Today’s Actions that Provide
Technology 1 Gigaton / Year of Mitigation
Build 320 “zero-emission” 500-MW coal-fired power plants in lieu of coal-fired plants without
Coal-Fired Power
CO2 capture and storage (73% CF)—the equivalent of nearly half U.S. coal-fired nameplate
Plants
generating capacity
Geologic Construct the equivalent of 1,000 sequestration sites like Norway’s Sliepner project
Sequestration (1.0 MtCO2/year)
Build 130 new nuclear power plants, each 1 GW in size (in lieu of new coal-fired power plants
Nuclear
without CO2 capture and storage) (90% CF)
Install 7,700 “typical” landfill gas electricity projects (typical size being 3 MW projects at non-
Electricity from
regulated landfills) that collect landfill methane emissions and use them as fuel for electric
Landfill Gas Projects
generation
Deploy 290 million new cars at 40 miles per gallon (mpg) instead of new cars at 20 mpg
Efficiency
(12,000 miles per year)
Install 170,000 wind turbines (1.5 MW each, operating at 0.45 capacity factor) in lieu of coal-
Wind Energy
fired power plants without CO2 capture and storage
Install 1.7 million acres of solar photovoltaics to supplant coal-fired power plants without CO2
Solar Photovoltaics capture and storage (10% cell DC eff’cy; 1700 kWh/m2 solar radiance; 90% DC-AC conv.
eff’cy).
Biomass fuels from Convert to biomass crop production a barren area about 5.4 times the total land area of Iowa
plantations (about 200 million acres)
CO2 Storage in New Convert to new forest a barren area about 2.5 times the total land area of the State of
Forest. Washington (over 100 million acres) (Assumes Douglas Fir on Pacific Coast)
2
Based on current technology and U.S. data.
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Source: Climate Change Technology Program. 2006. Strategic Plan. (Numbers updated and converted from carbon equivalents to carbon dioxide.)
Important Transitions in Emitting Countries Over the Coming
Decades: CO2 Emissions1 by Region - 2000 & 2050
1
Includes Fossil and other industrial CO2.
Source: Climate Change Science Program. 2007. Scenarios of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Atmospheric Concentrations (MINICAM Results).
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Global CO2 Emissions1—2000, 2050
Reference Case, and 2050 at 50% of 2000
(26.0 Gt/yr)
-76%
(-38.3 Gt/yr)
24.6 Gt/yr
-5
(-12 0%
.3 G
t/yr)
12.3 Gt/yr
-62%
2000
(-20.1 Gt)
-71%
(-23.1 Gt)
-59%
2000
(-10.7 Gt)
-85%
-84% (-27.6 Gt)
(-15.2 Gt)
-100%
(-18.2 Gt)
1
Includes fossil and other industrial CO2.
2
50% of 2000 global GHG emissions equals 12.3 Gt.
3
Equals reduction from 2050 reference for that group (i.e., Annex I or Non-Annex I).
Source: Climate Change Science Program. 2007. Scenarios of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Atmospheric Concentrations (MINICAM Model results). 10
To Achieve a 50% Reduction in Global CO2 Emissions by 2050,
Per Capita Emissions from Developing Countries Must Go Down
Percent Reductions from 2050 Reference3
Annex I Countries Non-Annex I Countries
CO2, Emissions per Capita (MMTCO2 per million pop.)
2000
-59%
-84%
-62%
2000 -71%
-85%
-100%
1
Measured as MMTCO2 per million people, excluding LULUCF.
2
50% of 2000 global CO2 emissions equals 12.3 Gt.
3
Equals reduction from 2050 reference for that group (i.e., Annex I or Non-Annex I).
11
Source: Climate Change Science Program. 2007. Scenarios of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Atmospheric Concentrations (MINICAM Model results).
Percentage of Global Electricity Production from
Low- or Zero-Emissions Technologies Across
Scenarios by 2050
All three CCSP report models assume sufficient
IGSM
technological options—fossil power plants with CCS,
nuclear power, and renewable energy—to allow for
substantial reductions in global carbon emissions from
electricity production. In all of the Level 1(≈450ppm CO2)
stabilization scenarios, the electricity sector undergoes
significant decarbonization by 2050 (see circles) and is
essentially fully decarbonized by 2100.
MERGE MINICAM
Source: Climate Change Science Program. 2007. Scenarios of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Atmospheric Concentrations.
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Scale of Changes in Power Sector:
IEA “BLUE” Map: “50 by 50”
Average Annual Power Capacity Additions to
Halve 2005 Global CO2 Emissions by 2050:
2010 to 2050
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
GW/year
Source: International Energy Agency, Energy Technology Perspectives 2008, Scenarios and Strategies to 2050. 13
Scale of CO2 Storage
0.15
By the end of the century,
approximately 20 GtCO2/yr may
be required, over 400x more
0.10 15
Gt CO2/yr than today.
0.05
0.00 10
Today 2020
80 Vehicles
Plug-In Hybrid
Vehicles
60
Biofuel Flex-Fuel
Vehicles
40 Gasoline & Diesel
Hybrids
20 Gasoline & Diesel
Conventional
0
Baseline 2050 BLUE Map 2050
Source: International Energy Agency, Energy Technology Perspectives 2008, Scenarios and Strategies to 2050.
15
Scale of Biomass Land Area
Land Use Scenario ≈550 ppmv
100%
90%
80%
0%
1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095
Source: Global Energy Technology Strategy, Addressing Climate Change: Phase 2 Findings from an International Public-Private Sponsored Research Program,
Battelle Memorial Institute, 2007. Land Use Scenario with 0.5% annual agricultural activity growth. 16
A Path Forward Involves …
Progress in climate change technology to:
create new, better, and less costly solutions
facilitate means for change and a smooth transition
Expanding finance & open trade in clean energy
goods and services
Protecting intellectual property rights
Increasing opportunities for multilateral collaboration
Developing a new international framework that is
realistic, economically sustainable and
environmentally effective
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