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Future Scenarios for the Eurozone

Future Scenarios for the Eurozone

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Published by Yannis Koutsomitis
Future Scenarios for the Eurozone - 15 Perspectives on the Euro Crisis (Friedrich Ebert Stiftung research paper)
Future Scenarios for the Eurozone - 15 Perspectives on the Euro Crisis (Friedrich Ebert Stiftung research paper)

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Published by: Yannis Koutsomitis on Apr 03, 2013
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04/03/2013

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INTERNATIONAL POLICY ANALYSIS
Future Scenarios for the Eurozone
15 Perspectives on the Euro Crisis
SCENARIO TEAM EUROZONE 2020
March 2013
 
The Eurozone is standing at a crossroads, facing the biggest challenges in its history:the systemic crisis and the political attempts to overcome it have far-reaching conse-quences for the future of the Economic and Monetary Union, European integrationand Europe in the world.
 
By identifying the main driving forces that influence the future development of theEconomic and Monetary Union, a number of different scenarios were developed toshow what the Eurozone will look like in the year 2020.
 
Four major scenarios are imaginable:(A) Muddling through the Crisis. The Eurozone remains a house without a protectingroof.(B) Break-up of the Eurozone. The Euro house falls apart.(C) Core Europe: evolution of two-level integration with a smaller and stable, butexclusionary Euro house.(D) Completion of the Monetary Union by a fiscal and political union. The roof isrepaired and construction completed.
 
Experts in 15 cities all over Europe evaluated, discussed and developed these sce-narios. A Pan-European perspective on the future of the Eurozone introduces analternative way of looking at the Euro Crisis.
 
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SCENARIO TEAM EUROZONE 2020 | FUTURE SCENARIOS FOR THE EUROZONE
Content
1. Introduction
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
32. Perspectives and Peculiarities from the Scenario Events
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
43. Four Scenarios on the Future of the Eurozone
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
5
3.1 Scenario A: Muddling-through the Crisis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53.2 Scenario B: Break-up of the Eurozone . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63.3 Scenario C: Core Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73.4 Scenario D: Fiscal Union Completed . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
4. Japanese, Yugoslav or Mezzogiorno Syndrome –Variations and Sequences of the Four Scenarios
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
9Annex
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
12
Information on the Eurocrisis Scenario Events . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 121. Portugal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 142. Finland . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 163. Slovakia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 174. Croatia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 185. Poland . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 196. Spain. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 217. Germany . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 238. Greece . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 259. United Kingdom . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2710. France . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2911. Slovenia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3112. Italy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3313. Estonia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35

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