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L
AND
U
SE
E
FFECTS OF
U.S.
 
C
ORN
-B
ASED
E
THANOL
 
February 24, 2009Thomas L. DarlingtonAir Improvement Resource, Inc.47298 Sunnybrook LaneNovi, Michigan 48374248-380-3140 (ph)248-380-3146 (fax)
 
2
Acknowledgements
The author of this report would like to acknowledge Scott Richman, InformaEconomics Senior Vice President and commercial consulting lead, and Dr. DonFrahm, Senior Vice President responsible for Informa’s acreage and productionestimates for the U.S. and other major crop-producing countries, for theirvaluable contributions to this report.
 
3
Table of Contents
1.0
 
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ........................................................................................................ 4
 
2.0
 
INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................................... 8
 
3.0
 
BACKGROUND ................................................................................................................... 12
 
3.1
 
E
STIMATING
L
AND
U
SE
E
FFECTS
......................................................................................... 12
 
3.2
 
T
HE
R
OLE OF
D
ISTILLERS
G
RAINS
....................................................................................... 15
 
3.3
 
GREET
 
M
ODEL
L
AND
U
SE
E
STIMATE
.................................................................................. 17
 
3.4
 
E
CONOMIC
M
ODELS
............................................................................................................ 17
 
3.5 S
EARCHINGER
,
ET AL
,
 
A
NALYSIS OF
L
AND
U
SE
E
FFECTS OF
C
ORN
E
THANOL
......................... 19
 
4.0
 
METHODOLOGY USED IN THIS STUDY ........................................................................... 21
 
5.0
 
INFORMA ECONOMICS LAND USE INVENTORY AND PROJECTIONS ........................ 23
 
5.1
 
F
RAMEWORK
...................................................................................................................... 23
 
5.2
 
M
ACRO
-L
EVEL
A
SSUMPTIONS AND
K
EY
P
OINTS IN THE
F
ORECAST
........................................ 24
 
5.3
 
U.S.
 
C
ROP
A
REA AND THE
C
ONSERVATION
R
ESERVE
P
ROGRAM
(CRP ................................. 26
 
5.4
 
B
RAZIL
C
ROP
A
REA
............................................................................................................ 29
 
5.5
 
EU-27
 
C
ROP
A
REA
............................................................................................................. 30
 
5.6
 
C
ANADA
C
ROP
A
REA
.......................................................................................................... 31
 
5.7
 
C
HINA
C
ROP
A
REA
............................................................................................................. 32
 
5.8
 
T
OTAL
M
AJOR
C
ROP
A
REA
.................................................................................................. 32
 
5.9
 
I
MPLICATIONS FOR
L
AND
U
SE
.............................................................................................. 34
 
5.10
 
E
STIMATE OF
L
AND
U
SE
I
MPACTS WITH
A
LTERNATIVE
A
SSUMPTIONS
.................................... 34
 
5.10.1
 
Yield Trends ............................................................................................................
34
 
5.10.2 
 
Distillers Grains Land Use Credit ............................................................................
35
 
5.11
 
S
UMMARY OF
I
MPACTS
........................................................................................................ 39
 
6.0
 
COMPARISON WITH ECONOMIC MODEL RESULTS ...................................................... 40
 
6.1
 
GTAP ................................................................................................................................ 40
 
6.2
 
CARD
 
S
YSTEM
.................................................................................................................. 43
 
6.3
 
C
ONCLUSIONS
.................................................................................................................... 44
 
7.0
 
UNCERTAINTIES ................................................................................................................. 45REFERENCES..……………………………….…………………………………………….……………46APPENDIX A……………………………………………………………………………….……………..48
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