increase in the DSR indicates good news for theeconomy in the
rst example and bad news in thesecond.
ATA FOR THE
Recent developments in credit markets necessitatedchanging some sources of the data used to calculatethe DSR. Commercial banks
changing role in house-hold credit markets led to replacing a bank-levelsurvey with a household-level survey as the sourcefor the distribution of loan types. In the process of revision, members of the Board staff re-evaluatedand updated the data sources for loan maturities andinterest rates. Also, changes in the student loan mar-ket led to using new sources of data for student loans.
Using a New Source of Nonauto, Nonrevolving Debt Shares
In the calculation of the DSR, aggregate nonauto,nonrevolving debt is split into its component parts
student loans, mobile-home loans, recreational vehi-cle (RV) and marine loans, and personal loans
because these loans have different interest rates andmaturities and so have different amounts of debtservice associated with a given increase in debt.
Inthe past, the aggregate was split with shares esti-mated from the American Bankers Association sur-vey of banks. However, the role of commercial banksin household credit markets has changed, and wehave become less con
dent that banks
distributionof loan types represents the distribution for the creditmarket as a whole.One example of the changing role of commercialbanks in household credit markets is the student loanmarket. From 1983 to 2001, student loans as a shareof commercial banks
nonauto, nonrevolving loanportfolio
the previous basis for our estimates
declined from 30 percent to 12 percent (table 1).Over the same period, student loans as a share of households
nonauto, nonrevolving debt
the re-visedbasis for our estimates
increased from about28 percent to 58 percent. That these shares showopposite trends implies that households are obtainingeducation loans from lenders other than commercialbanks, such as the federal government.Another example is the market for personal loans.Between 1983 and 2001, personal loans as a share of commercial banks
nonauto, nonrevolving consumerloan portfolio
uctuated in a wide band around30 percent. At the same time, personal loans weredeclining as a share of households
nonauto, nonre-volving credit; in 2001, they made up only 8 percentof such credit, down from 28 percent in 1983. Onepossibility is that personal loans have been replacedby credit card debt, a type of revolving debt that hasmore than doubled as a share of total consumer debtin the past two decades.To obtain information about such markets, weturned to the Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF)(see box). This survey gathers detailed informationon households
nancial characteristics. Part of thisinformation concerns households
outstanding con-sumer loans from all types of lenders.
Updating Assumptions about the Timeto Maturity
The assumptions about the remaining time to matu-rity of the loans outstanding (remaining maturity)
3. Revolving debt arises from retail credit extended on the basis of a credit line and from the sale of services and consumer goods otherthan passenger cars and mobile homes. A single contract governsmultiple use of the account, and purchases may be made with a creditcard. Generally, credit extensions can be made at the consumer
sdiscretion, provided that they do not cause the outstanding balance of the account to exceed a prearranged credit limit.Nonrevolving debt comprises all other loans not included in revolv-ing credit that are unsecured or are secured by collateral other thanreal estate.
1. Share of dollars outstanding, by type of nonauto, nonrevolving loans, 1983
PercentYearStudent Mobile home RV and marine PersonalPrevious Revised
................ 30 28 19 24 10 21 40 281989 ....................... 33 38 24 19 23 24 20 201992 ....................... 37 51 14 15 29 17 21 171995 ....................... 44 55 8 21 22 14 26 111998 ....................... 17 53 11 21 37 18 36 82000/2001
................ 12 58 6 21 31 14 51 81. These
gures are based on loans reported to be from banks,
nance com-panies, credit unions, and stores.2. Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF) data are available for 1983 and 2001,whereas American Bankers Association (ABA) data are available for 1985 and2000.
column, American Bankers Association Install-ment Credit Report. For
column, Survey of Consumer Finances, vari-ous waves.
418 Federal Reserve Bulletin October 2003