lobal rice prices have beenfairly stable since 2012 after
a runup in the rst half of
2011 in anticipation of thereintroduction of the Thai mortgagescheme that guarantees farmers a setprice for their rice. This was followed by a subsequent drop in the fourthquarter of 2011 after India re-enteredthe nonbasmati export market, whichmade India the top rice exporter in2012, thus dethroning Thailand for
the rst time in three decades (Fig. 1).
In the past few months, however,rice prices have come under pressure because of weak demand and thelarge stockpiles in key exportingcountries. The strong harvest fromthe wet-season crop in Asia hashelped to lower export quotationsfrom Vietnam, Pakistan, and India
(Fig. 2). But, Thai prices remainunrued by the global situation
mainly because of the mortgagescheme. This mortgage scheme hasalso created more uncertainty in theglobal market as traders do not knowwhen mortgaged rice will be releasedand at what price.
For many Asian countries,
including Vietnam, China,
Bangladesh, and Pakistan, 2012 rice
production is estimated to be atrecord levels. According to the USDA,overall global rice production for2012-13 is estimated to be around 468
million tons (milled equivalent), 2
million tons higher than the recordproduction of 2011-12
stocks for 2012-13 are projectedto decline slightly from the 105million tons in 2011-12 to 103 milliontons because of strong growth inrice consumption. In the past 7
Fig. 2. Prices of 25% broken rice.
Source: FAO Rice Monitor.
S e p - 0 1 M a r - 0 2 M a r - 0 3 M a r - 0 4 M a r - 0 5 M a r - 0 6 M a r - 0 7 M a r - 0 8 M a r - 0 9 M a r - 1 0 M a r - 1 1 M a r - 1 2 S e p - 0 2 S e p - 0 3 S e p - 0 4 S e p - 0 5 S e p - 0 6 S e p - 0 7 S e p - 0 8 S e p - 0 9 S e p - 1 0 S e p - 1 1 S e p - 1 2