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RT Vol. 12, No. 2 Both Politics and Monsoons can Affect the Rice Market

RT Vol. 12, No. 2 Both Politics and Monsoons can Affect the Rice Market

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Published by Rice Today
Rice Today Vol. 12, No. 2 (April - June 2013)
Rice Today Vol. 12, No. 2 (April - June 2013)

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Published by: Rice Today on Apr 11, 2013
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05/10/2013

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40
Rice Today
 
 April-June 2013
Rice facts
G
lobal rice prices have beenfairly stable since 2012 after
a runup in the rst half of
2011 in anticipation of thereintroduction of the Thai mortgagescheme that guarantees farmers a setprice for their rice. This was followed by a subsequent drop in the fourthquarter of 2011 after India re-enteredthe nonbasmati export market, whichmade India the top rice exporter in2012, thus dethroning Thailand for
the rst time in three decades (Fig. 1).
In the past few months, however,rice prices have come under pressure because of weak demand and thelarge stockpiles in key exportingcountries. The strong harvest fromthe wet-season crop in Asia hashelped to lower export quotationsfrom Vietnam, Pakistan, and India
(Fig. 2). But, Thai prices remainunrued by the global situation
mainly because of the mortgagescheme. This mortgage scheme hasalso created more uncertainty in theglobal market as traders do not knowwhen mortgaged rice will be releasedand at what price.
For many Asian countries,
including Vietnam, China,
Bangladesh, and Pakistan, 2012 rice
production is estimated to be atrecord levels. According to the USDA,overall global rice production for2012-13 is estimated to be around 468
million tons (milled equivalent), 2
million tons higher than the recordproduction of 2011-12
.
But, ending
stocks for 2012-13 are projectedto decline slightly from the 105million tons in 2011-12 to 103 milliontons because of strong growth inrice consumption. In the past 7
ThailandIndiaPakistanVietnam
Fig. 2. Prices of 25% broken rice.
Source: FAO Rice Monitor.
Date1,0009008007006005004003002001000US$/ton
  S  e  p -  0  1   M  a  r -  0  2   M  a  r -  0  3   M  a  r -  0  4   M  a  r -  0   5   M  a  r -  0  6   M  a  r -  0   7   M  a  r -  0  8   M  a  r -  0  9   M  a  r -  1  0   M  a  r -  1  1   M  a  r -  1  2  S  e  p -  0  2  S  e  p -  0  3  S  e  p -  0  4  S  e  p -  0   5  S  e  p -  0  6  S  e  p -  0   7  S  e  p -  0  8  S  e  p -  0  9  S  e  p -  1  0  S  e  p -  1  1  S  e  p -  1  2
 
IndiaThailand
Fig. 1. The rise of India as the world’s largest rice exporter.
Source: Production, Supply, and Distribution online database, USDA.
 Year121086420Million tons
  1  9   7  1  1  9   7  3  1  9   7   5  1  9   7   7  1  9   7  9  1  9  8  1  1  9  8  3  1  9  8   5  1  9  8   7  1  9  8  9  1  9  9  1  1  9  9  3  1  9  9   5  1  9  9   7  1  9  9  9  2  0  0  1  2  0  0  3  2  0  0   5  2  0  0   7  2  0  0  9  2  0  1  1
Both politics and monsoonscan afect the
by
Samarendu Mohanty
rice market
Note: No data are available for India from February 2008 to August 2011 because of the export ban.

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