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Introductory Operations Management: Lecture 3 - Forecasting

Introductory Operations Management: Lecture 3 - Forecasting

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Published by: u5easdrctd on Mar 23, 2009
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07/22/2014

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CHAPTER 3: FORECASTING I
Lecture 3
 
OUTLINE
Introduction
Features common to all forecasts
Elements of a good forecast
Steps in forecasting process
Forecasting techniques and common models
Forecasts based on Time series data
Naïve methods
 Techniques for averaging
 Techniques for trend
 
INTRODUCTION
What is a forecast?
A statement aboutfuture values of a variable, in other words forecasts areprediction of future
Something that can be predicted in advance
Better predictions lead to informed decisions
Example of forecast
Weather forecast
Forecasting the demand of a product before it occurs
Manufacture according to the predicted demand
Companies that does demand forecasting: Wal-Mart, JCPenney, Gap, P & G etc.
Forecasting helps managers byreducing some of the uncertainty, thereby allowing them todevelopmeaningful plans, how?
Anticipating what buyers want
Reasonable approximation

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