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Introductory Operations Management: Lecture 4 - Forecasting

Introductory Operations Management: Lecture 4 - Forecasting

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Published by: u5easdrctd on Mar 23, 2009
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08/05/2013

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FORECASTING II
Sep 4
th
2008Lecture 4
1
 
OUTLINE
Forecasting based on time series data
Seasonality & Cycles
Associative (causal) forecasting techniques
Simple linear regression
Accuracy and control of forecasts
Forecast accuracy
Controlling forecast
Choosing a forecasting technique
2
 
SEASONALITY
What are seasonal variations?
Regularrepeating movements in seriesvalues that canbe tied torecurring events
Examples
Sales of gift items during holiday season
Sales of winter clothing during winter season
Airline ticket sales during summer period
Increased vehicles on roads during rush hours
Seasonality in a time series is expressed in terms of the amount thatactual values
deviate
from the
average
of the series value
 There are two seasonal models
Additive
 The additional value added or subtracted from the series average
Multiplicative
Seasonality expressed as percentage of the average value
1.10 of the series average
3

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