Welcome to Scribd, the world's digital library. Read, publish, and share books and documents. See more
Download
Standard view
Full view
of .
Look up keyword
Like this
3Activity
0 of .
Results for:
No results containing your search query
P. 1
February Housing Finance

February Housing Finance

Ratings: (0)|Views: 6,679|Likes:
Published by Belinda Winkelman

More info:

Published by: Belinda Winkelman on Apr 15, 2013
Copyright:Attribution Non-commercial

Availability:

Read on Scribd mobile: iPhone, iPad and Android.
download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
See more
See less

04/15/2013

pdf

text

original

 
 
15 APRIL 2013CONTRIBUTORS
David CanningtonSenior Property Analyst
+61 3 8655 9036David.Cannington@anz.com
Ivan ColhounChief Economist, Australia
+61 2 9227 1780Ivan.Colhoun@anz.com
AUSTRALIAN ECONOMIC UPDATEAUSTRALIAN PROPERTY
ANZ RESEARCH
INVESTORS AND UPGRADERS CONTINUE TO DRIVE HOUSING FINANCEGROWTH
 
Housing finance commitments increased in February (+1.4% m/m), boosted bythe positive impact of cyclically low mortgage rates. Looking through theseasonally-adjusted monthly movements, housing finance continues tostrengthen with improving housing affordability (at ten-year lows) and the tighthousing market demand/supply balance driving increased housing sales andhouse prices.
FIGURE 1. HOUSING FINANCE
1501701902102302502702004200520062007200820092010201120122013
   $   b   i   l ,  a  n  n  u  a   l   i  s  e   d
Total housing finance (ex-refin, seas adj)Total housing finance (ex-refin, trend)
 
Source: ABS
 
Today’s data continues to reflect volatile first home buyer activity. Weak firsthome buyer housing finance, particularly in NSW, Queensland and the NorthernTerritory continues to weigh on owner-occupier housing finance, with some firsthome buyer activity ‘pulled forward’ before the recent expiration of first homebuyer concessions in these states.
 
The outlook for housing finance remains broadly positive. The combined boost tohousing sales from RBA rate cuts (including the October and December moveswhich will continue to provide a positive impact on future months’ figures) andthe positive impact of house price growth on pent-up housing market demandare likely to support further moderate growth in housing finance in the comingmonths.
 
In value terms, the upgrader and investor segments have recorded solid housingfinance growth in recent months. In the six months to February, investor housingfinance has increased 17.0%, while owner-occupier housing finance increased10.7% over the same period. First home buyer activity was negatively affectedby changed state government incentives, decreasing 1.5% m/m in February.
 
Australian Economic Update / 15 April 2013 / 2 of 7
FIGURE 2. HOUSING FINANCE BY SEGMENT
02040608010012020002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013
   $   b  n  a  n  n  u  a   l   i  s  e   d   (  t  r  e  n   d   )
First home buyerUpgrader (excl. refin.)Investor (excl. refin.)
 
Source: ABS
First home buyer activity decreased in February (-1.5% m/m), with its share of thetotal value of housing finance commitments (excluding refinancing) decreasing to11.0% - the lowest first home owner share since April 2004. Growth in the number of first home buyer commitments in February was lowest in the Northern Territory(-41.8% m/m - reflecting the negative impact of the withdrawal of the NorthernTerritory First Home Owner Concession in December 2012). While this result partlyreflects ongoing first home buyer caution towards housing debt, it also shows thesensitivity of first home buyer lending to changes in government first home buyerconcessions. Notably, the continued impact of the withdrawal of the First Home BuyerGrant on established homes in NSW and Queensland and the Northern Territory firsthome buyer stamp duty concession in recent months has driven weaker first homebuyer lending in these states. Looking ahead, we expect the combined impact of improving housing affordability, rapidly rising rents and an underlying shortage of housing will support moderate growth in first home buyer activity in 2013.
FIGURE 3. FIRST HOME BUYER HOUSING FINANCE
02468101214162006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
   N  u  m   b  e  r   (   '   0   0   0  s   )
NSW, Victoria, Queensland, NT SA, WA, Tasmania, ACT
First home owner boostImpact of changes to NSW, Victoria,Queensland and the NT first homebuyer policies
 
Source: ABS
 
Australian Economic Update / 15 April 2013 / 3 of 7
FIGURE 4. FIRST HOME BUYER HOUSING FINANCE, SELECT STATES
01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,000080910111213
   N  u  m   b  e  r  o   f   f   i  r  s  t   h  o  m  e   b  u  y  e  r  c  o  m  m   i  t  m  e  n  t  s   (   S  e  a  s  a   d   j   )
New South WalesVictoriaQueenslandWestern AustraliaSouth Australia
 
Source: ABS
FIGURE 5. FIRST HOME BUYER HOUSING FINANCE, SELECT STATES/TERRITORIES
050100150200250300350400080910111213
   N  u  m   b  e  r  o   f   f   i  r  s  t   h  o  m  e   b  u  y  e  r  c  o  m  m   i  t  m  e  n  t  s   (   S  e  a  s  a   d   j   )
TasmaniaNorthern TerritoryAustralian Capital Territory
 
Source: ABS
Monthly growth in owner-occupier housing finance was positive in all states andterritories except Victoria (-0.8% m/m) and the Northern Territory (-20.8% m/m –almost exclusively driven by a sharp fall in first home buyers). The Australian CapitalTerritory revealed the largest increase in February (+19.9% m/m), followed byQueensland (+3.9% m/m) and New South Wales (+3.6% m/m). In annual terms,trend growth in housing finance continued to be led by the Northern Territory(+9.2% y/y) in February, followed by Western Australia (+4.8% y/y) while trendannual growth was weakest in NSW (affected by FHB changes) followed by SouthAustralia(-9.7% and -2.8% y/y respectively).

You're Reading a Free Preview

Download
scribd
/*********** DO NOT ALTER ANYTHING BELOW THIS LINE ! ************/ var s_code=s.t();if(s_code)document.write(s_code)//-->