DEMAND:Global soybean consumption estimated to riseby 3 percentin 2012-13 and wouldtotal 263 MMTcompared to last year 255 MMT. Previous years higher prices reduced demand for soybean and divertedmany users to find substitutes. Given the fall in the prices from the peak to current level of $14 a bushelwill attract some buying and also restocking in importing countries.Indian soya meal consumption estimated to rise to 4 MMT compared to last year 3.5 MMT. The soya oilconsumption is expected to be around 3.3 MMT. Demand from meal importing SEA countries alsolooking bright.Overall demand for soybean in domestic as well as global market seems to be movingupside after last year setback.TRADE:Global soybean import export trade quantity estimated to be around 96 MMTduring 2012-13. Brazil, USand Argentina exports 36.7,36 and 10.3 MMT of soybean respectively. These three countries contributealmost 85 percent of global export. China is the largest importer of Soybean with 61 MMT contributionswhile EU union stands second with 11.8 MMT. Mexico estimated to import around 3.7 MMT of soybean,while rest of import goes to SEA and Middle East countries.
Indian meal Export:
Export of Indian soya meal estimated to be 4.5 MMT as per USDA (Oct-Sep), whileSEA of India says Export of meal is 3.4 MMT during April 2012 to March 2013. Indian mealenjoys thedemand in SEA countries because of its non GM crop and quality. Indian exporters are offering SoyaMeal around $ 710 per MT on FOB basis for SEA and Iran destinations.
Indian Oil Import:
India is estimated to import around 1.15 Million MTof soya oil compared to 1.17Million MT last year.Domestic Crush Margin:Given soybean price at Rs 4100 per quintal, Soya Oil at Rs 723 per 10 kg, soya meal Rs 36250 per MT andconversion cost Rs 1200 per metric ton; crush margin will be Rs-343per MT. All prices are for Indorelocation.GLOBAL BALANCE SHEET:
2012-13E World India U.S.A Brazil Argentina China
Beginning Stock55.134.611.665.2015.92Production269.6012.6082.0583.5051.5012.60Import95.481.150.500.040.0161.00Total Supply420.2113.7587.1685.2056.7789.52Consumption 269.007.5047.0722.5525.1063.69Export97.864.5036.7440.2510.450.00Ending Stock62.631.753.3522.4021.2212.39