EnvironmEntal ChangE and SECurity program
3
However, these countries already have sucha large cohort o women o childbearing agethat their populations continue to add signif
-
cant numbers each year. In China, or example,although most couples have ewer than twochildren, zero population growth is still severaldecades away. While current growth rates have
sunktoaround0.6percentperyear,Chinawilladdnearly80millionpeopleduringeachofthe
next two decades beore its population peaks.India, though not quite as large as Chinatoday, is growing twice as ast, at 1.4 percent
peryear,andwilladdroughly135millionpeo-
ple per decade or the next two decades. Even with a continued decline in their birth rates,these two countries alone are expected to add
roughly400millionpeopleby2025—more
than the entire population o the United States,the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, and
Belgiumtoday
combined
.
Mostofthe20largestcountriesintheworld
have modest growth rates but large demographicmomentum, and thus will make the largest con
-
tributions to total world population growth in the
next20years.Thefastest-growingcountriesare
generally smaller, but are acing the largest bur
-
den o additional growth on a percentage basis
(seeTable1).Forthenextseveraldecades,global
population growth will be concentrated in only aew regions and countries, mainly Muslim societ
-ies(almosttheentiretophalfofTable1)andhugestateswithpopulationsof75millionormore.MostofthestatesthatdominateTable1arealsoamongtheworld’slowerincomecountries.Bycontrast,
population growth rates in Europe and Japan arealready low and, in some cases, negative.
Therefore,theproportionoftheworld’s
population living in Muslim states, or in thevery largest and very poorest states, will grow,and the proportion o the world’s populationliving in developed countries will shrink.
The
sole exception is the United States, which is
expectedtoadd50millionpeopleinthenext20years—mostlyduetorecentandprojected
immigration o people born elsewhere.Some countries with extremely rapid popu
-
lation growth are likely to manage it reason
-
ably well due to sound management and strongeconomic growth (e.g., Kuwait and the United
ArabEmirates).However,inanumberof“ash
points,” the inability to integrate rapidly expand
-
ing populations into politics and the economy will lead to radical political mobilization amongthose angry at not attaining the level o prosper
-
ity reached by some o their neighbors.Some o the extremely large countries willprobably manage their anticipated growth with
-outconicts.Yetthesheersizeofthepopulation
increases they ace in coming years, combined with their eorts to rapidly industrialize, meansthat many will also ace a “tipping point,” whenuneven development leaves tens o millions o disadvantaged people to watch other millions
reapthebenetsofrapidgrowth.Thedispari-
ties o economic ortune among classes, regions,or ethnic groups may become so great as tospark violent protests. Or the migration o ruralmasses to urban and industrial centers couldproduce a social crisis. We cannot predict which countries willace such crises, as they are due to ailed politi
-
cal leadership and administrative managementmore than population changes
per se
.Butwe
can say that in many o the largest countries,governments will ace exceptional challenges inmeeting their populations’ demands or bothstrong and equitable economic growth andsound political management. We can say with certainty that these trends
posemajordilemmasfortheeconomicpol-
icy and development o the West, particu
-larlyEurope.In2005,only5ofthe25largest
countries in the world were in Europe, with a
combinedpopulationofroughly400million,oraboutone-tenththetotalpopulationofthe
remaining countries (UN Population Division,
2007).By2025,justtwodecadesdistant,there
will be only our European countries in the top
25,withatotalpopulationof338million,oraboutsevenpercentofthe5.5billioninhabit-antsoftheother21countries.By2050,there
will be only three European countries in the top
25withatotalpopulationof258million,or justfourpercentofthe6.3billionintheother
Poplaon
disorions—in which
poplaonsow oo on,o oo fas, ooo banzd—ak dffclfo pvaln
conomic and
adnsavnsons o
mainain sablsocializaion
and labo-foc
absorion.
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