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ECSP Report13: New Directions in Demographic Security

ECSP Report13: New Directions in Demographic Security

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Published by ecsp534
As the Obama administration takes over, the 13th issue of the Environmental Change and Security Program Report details the non-traditional security threats—and opportunities—it faces. “Environmental security is making a comeback,” says ECSP Director Geoff Dabelko, “notably in the United States, where signs indicate that the next administration will tackle environment, population, health, and development challenges that impact security.” In a special feature entitled “New Directions in Demographic Security,” seven demographic experts analyze the links connecting population and environmental dynamics to conflict. The report also features articles on the population-climate change nexus and the UN Environment Programme's peacebuilding work in conflict zones.
As the Obama administration takes over, the 13th issue of the Environmental Change and Security Program Report details the non-traditional security threats—and opportunities—it faces. “Environmental security is making a comeback,” says ECSP Director Geoff Dabelko, “notably in the United States, where signs indicate that the next administration will tackle environment, population, health, and development challenges that impact security.” In a special feature entitled “New Directions in Demographic Security,” seven demographic experts analyze the links connecting population and environmental dynamics to conflict. The report also features articles on the population-climate change nexus and the UN Environment Programme's peacebuilding work in conflict zones.

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Published by: ecsp534 on Mar 25, 2009
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08/05/2013

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1
nEW dIrECTIonS In
 
DemOgrAPhiC SeCurity
2
Flash Ponts and Tppng Ponts: Scurty
Ipictis f gb Ppti Ces
 Jack A. Goldstone 
10
hf  Cce: yt Bes Tsitis t libe decc
Richard Cincotta 
19
Ppti i defese Pic Pi
 Jennier Dabbs Sciubba 
27
Cite Ce, dep, Eietdeti,  ae Cfict
Clionadh Raleigh and Henrik Urdal 
34
miti s te depic Wi Ci Ci
l Conflct: Maurtus and Fj
Christian Leuprecht 
40
Beii te depic Tsiti:ve y  ytf ae Stctes
Elizabeth Leahy 
 
ECSp rEport
iSSuE 13
2008–2009
2
 nEW dIrECTIonS In
DemOgrAPhiC SeCurity
Flash Ponts and Tppng Ponts:
Secit Ipictis f gbPpti Ces
I
s improving relations between Western andMuslim countries crucial to fxing pensionprograms in Europe and the United States?Can reversing the “brain drain” o medical talentmigrating rom developing countries to devel
-
oped ones improve the budget balance o devel
-
oped nations? Will economic growth in Chinaand India draw investment and innovation away rom the United States, Japan, and Europe?
Thesequestionsaresparkedbypredicted
trends in global population dynamics over thenext hal century. In this article, I examine
fourmajortrendsthatarelikelytoposesigni-
cant security challenges to Europe, Japan, andmost other developed nations in the next twodecades:
1
 (1) Disproportionate population growth inlarge and Muslim countries;(2) Shrinking population in the EuropeanUnion and European ormer Sovietcountries;
(3)Sharplyopposingageshiftsbetween
aging developed countries and youthuldeveloping countries; and(4) Increased immigration rom developingto developed countries.
Thesecurityandconictproblemscausedby
population growth are not mainly due to short
-agesofresources.Rather,population
distor- tions 
—in which populations grow too young, ortoo ast, or too urbanized—make it difcult orprevailing economic and administrative institu
-tionstomaintainstablesocializationandlabor-forceabsorption(Goldstone,2002;Cincottaetal.,2003;Leahyetal.,2007).
Big Emerging Markets and theWorld Economy
Countriesaregrowingtodayfortwomajor
reasons: high population growth rates anddemographic momentum.
2
In some countries,
mainlyinAfricaandtheMiddleEast(aswellasafewinLatinAmericaandSouthAsia),
birth rates remain much higher than mortality 
rates,sogrowthratesaremorethan2.0percent
per year. In these countries—which include
 Afghanistan,theDemocraticRepublicofthe
Congo, Guatemala, Iraq, Jordan, Nepal, Saudi
 Arabia,Pakistan,andYemen—thepopulationis
still doubling every generation, or roughly every 
30-35years(UNPopulationDivision,2007).
In other countries, such as China, India, andIndonesia, population growth rates have recent
-
ly dropped substantially; in percentage terms,they are growing more slowly than they have
inthepast(UNPopulationDivision,2007).
 Jck a. gste
is h Virginia e. and John
t. hazl J. Pofsso a  go masonunvs Scool of Pblc Polc. t aoo co-ao of nn books and wnn of  Dsnsd Scolasp Awad of Acan Socolocal Assocaon, goldsons a ladn ao on onal conflcs, assvd on a u.S. vc-psdnal ask focon sa fal, and s a conslan o u.S. Sa Dpan,  Fdal Baof invsaon, and  u.S. Anc foinnaonal Dvlopn. (Poo b hdFanc, Woodow Wlson Cn)
 JaCK a.goldSTonE
 
EnvironmEntal ChangE and SECurity program
3
However, these countries already have sucha large cohort o women o childbearing agethat their populations continue to add signif
-
cant numbers each year. In China, or example,although most couples have ewer than twochildren, zero population growth is still severaldecades away. While current growth rates have
sunktoaround0.6percentperyear,Chinawilladdnearly80millionpeopleduringeachofthe
next two decades beore its population peaks.India, though not quite as large as Chinatoday, is growing twice as ast, at 1.4 percent
peryear,andwilladdroughly135millionpeo-
ple per decade or the next two decades. Even with a continued decline in their birth rates,these two countries alone are expected to add
roughly400millionpeopleby2025—more
than the entire population o the United States,the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, and
Belgiumtoday
combined 
.
Mostofthe20largestcountriesintheworld
have modest growth rates but large demographicmomentum, and thus will make the largest con
-
tributions to total world population growth in the
next20years.Thefastest-growingcountriesare
generally smaller, but are acing the largest bur
-
den o additional growth on a percentage basis
(seeTable1).Forthenextseveraldecades,global
population growth will be concentrated in only aew regions and countries, mainly Muslim societ
-ies(almosttheentiretophalfofTable1)andhugestateswithpopulationsof75millionormore.MostofthestatesthatdominateTable1arealsoamongtheworld’slowerincomecountries.Bycontrast,
population growth rates in Europe and Japan arealready low and, in some cases, negative.
Therefore,theproportionoftheworlds
population living in Muslim states, or in thevery largest and very poorest states, will grow,and the proportion o the world’s populationliving in developed countries will shrink. 
The
sole exception is the United States, which is
expectedtoadd50millionpeopleinthenext20years—mostlyduetorecentandprojected
immigration o people born elsewhere.Some countries with extremely rapid popu
-
lation growth are likely to manage it reason
-
ably well due to sound management and strongeconomic growth (e.g., Kuwait and the United
 ArabEmirates).However,inanumberof“ash
points,” the inability to integrate rapidly expand
-
ing populations into politics and the economy  will lead to radical political mobilization amongthose angry at not attaining the level o prosper
-
ity reached by some o their neighbors.Some o the extremely large countries willprobably manage their anticipated growth with
-outconicts.Yetthesheersizeofthepopulation
increases they ace in coming years, combined with their eorts to rapidly industrialize, meansthat many will also ace a “tipping point,” whenuneven development leaves tens o millions o disadvantaged people to watch other millions
reapthebenetsofrapidgrowth.Thedispari-
ties o economic ortune among classes, regions,or ethnic groups may become so great as tospark violent protests. Or the migration o ruralmasses to urban and industrial centers couldproduce a social crisis. We cannot predict which countries willace such crises, as they are due to ailed politi
-
cal leadership and administrative managementmore than population changes
 per se 
.Butwe
can say that in many o the largest countries,governments will ace exceptional challenges inmeeting their populations’ demands or bothstrong and equitable economic growth andsound political management. We can say with certainty that these trends
posemajordilemmasfortheeconomicpol-
icy and development o the West, particu
-larlyEurope.In2005,only5ofthe25largest
countries in the world were in Europe, with a
combinedpopulationofroughly400million,oraboutone-tenththetotalpopulationofthe
remaining countries (UN Population Division,
2007).By2025,justtwodecadesdistant,there
 will be only our European countries in the top
25,withatotalpopulationof338million,oraboutsevenpercentofthe5.5billioninhabit-antsoftheother21countries.By2050,there
 will be only three European countries in the top
25withatotalpopulationof258million,or justfourpercentofthe6.3billionintheother
Poplaon
disorions—in which
poplaonsow oo on,o oo fas, ooo banzd—ak  dffclfo pvaln
conomic and
adnsavnsons o
mainain sablsocializaion
and labo-foc
absorion.

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