2007

1

2

3
-
4

5

6

 1

1.1
,


,
. ,
.
1.2


,
.
:
1

.
(, ).
,

.
(replacement)
.

(independent) (mutually exclusive).

. ,

.
.
, ( ),
(, , ).
(Project)

,
(-)

(-).
1

. (1999) . , .123


.

,
, ,

.
2

,
,
.
,
.. /
, .

.

(
), .
,
, , , ,
.


( ).
1.3

, :

.
,
:
(
),
(

)

( ),

( )
2

. (1985) . , , .
31-32
3 ibid, . 36-38

. :
( )



. :






. , :
,

,

1.3.1

.
,

,
.

,
, ,
( , ,
, .) ,
, ,
,
,

.


.

.

1.3.2

(
),
.

, .
4

,

, / ,
. ,

,
.
,
,
,
.
:

( )
( )














.

. (2000) , . , . 219-223.

1.4


.
5

, .

, ' ,
.
, ,


(.. ).

,
.
,
. ,
.
,
" "
.

.
,
.
, .
,
.
, ,

, ..
.
,
.

(Social Time Preference - STPR),
"
".
, .

. (2001) , , .
201-204

() 100
100 .
,
.
,
.
() .
, .
,
.
,
. ,


.
() .
,
,
.
,
.
() .

(
),
.
.
STPR
;

.
.

,
(Social Opportunity Cost - SOC).


.

,
.
.
.
, ,

 . ,
.

. ,

;
.
(SOC)
(STPR)


"" . STPR

SOC
. '
.
,

. ..
(. 1.1)

. :
-
-


-
,
, ,
.
6

1.1: ..

,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
, , ,

( )

()

(

)

(
.
6

Bristow A., Nellthorp J. Transport project appraisal in the European Union Transport Policy 7
(2000) pp. 51-60

 )
: Bristow A., Nellthorp J. Transport project appraisal in the European Union Transport
Policy 7 (2000) pp. 51-60

(multi-criteria
analysis) (Cost Benefit)
,

, .

.
1
. (1999) .
. (1985) .
,
. (1997) . ,

. (2000) , .
. (2001) .

Bristow A., Nellthorp J. (2000) Transport project appraisal in the European

Union Transport Policy 7, 2000

 2

2.1
,
,
. ;
,

.
.
.
2.1

.
:
1 :
:
)
.

.
) .

.
) :
, ,
,
. , .
2 :

,
.
.
"
". ,

 ,
.

.
3 :
. ,
,

.
2.1.1
,


. ,
,
,
.
,

.
2.1.2


( .. , .)

. ,
- ,
. ,


. ,

.
2.1.3
.
, ,
,
. ,


.
2.1.4


. ,
.
( ), -
,

.

,
.
7

,

.
,
,
( , externalities).
.
2.2 - -

, -
- .


.

,
.

( )
.
.
, , .
7

"
" " (shadow) "

 ,
,
- .
:


.

, .
,
, ,
, , ...
, ,
( )
.
, -
. ( )
, .
, ,
,
( , , ...).
, ()
.
, ,
() .
, ,
(, , , , ...)

.

,
,

.

, :
.

-

.

. .



.
.
.

, .
.
.


.

.
.
.

.

 3
-
3.1 -

,
, ,

.

:
1.
2.

(Pay - Back
Period)
(Rate of Return)

,
, :
1.
2.

(Net Present Value)

(Internal Rate of
Return)

3.2
3.2.1 (pay-back period)

(recoupment period) (pay-back period)

, .
,
""
. ,
, ()
():
() = /

 ,
:

$ 5.000 $1
200
$ 6.000 $1.500
7.000 $1.700

:
= 5000/1200 = 4,2
= 6000/1500 = 4
= 7000/1700 = 4,1

.
$
4.000.000.
$1.000.000 5
$ 500.000.

:
3.1

0
1
2
3
4
5

- 4.000.000
1.000.000
1.000.000
1.000.000
1.000.000
1.500.000

- 4.000.000
- 3.000.000
- 2.000.000
- 1.000.000
0
1.500.000

 3.1
2000000
1000000
0
-1000000
-2000000

-3000000
-4000000
-5000000

,
4 ( =0),

.

.
.
,

.
.

(mutually exclusive investments).

""
.


. ,
,
.
, ,
.
:

.
,
. ,
. " " ,
. ,
,
.
-.
3.2.2

(%) .
:

100
. 1 =
+

. 2= 100

100
=

2.

, $ 50.000.000.
80.000.000. ,
$ 80.000.000 - $ 50.000.000 = $ 30.000.000.
10 ,
$ 3.000.000 .
,
3.000.000/50.000.000 100% = 6%
,

,
.

 . ' ,
:
1.
.
2. ,
, .

,
, ,

.

. ,
, ,


.
(discounted cash flow).

3.3 (DCF)
3.3.1

,
.
,
( )
( ).
,
"-" 0. -1 0
,
. 1 3,
,
. 4,
, ,
,
.

-1

3.2:

3.3.2

.

.
.
0 () ,
, .

.

,
.

3.3.3 (Present Value)

,
(DCF)
, ,
.
( 1 5) ,
0.


,
, .
,
- . 2
.

, ,
.
.

.
, 100.000 .,
10%,
110.000 ., :
100 + [ (10) / 100 * 100] 100 * (1 + 10 / 100).
, 121.000 , .
110 + [ (10) / 100 * 110], .
, ' , , o
n
i, n ..
( Future Value)
..= (1+i)n

. = (1+i)-n
(1+i)n (compounding
factor), (1+i)-n (discounting
factor). :

(1+n)

Ko

Kn
0

........

n-1
(1+n)

-n

 3.3:

i
(1 i1, 2 i2, ... )
..= (1+i1) (1+i2) (1+in)
A :
.. = (1+ i/2 )2n

(DCF),
,
. ,

,
, .

..

(i)
..= (1+i)n

()
. = (1+i)-n

0
(n)

()

(i)
3.4:

()

3.3.4

(Annuity)
.
(Perpetuity).
0

n .
()

$1.000.000
10 ,
1
K = .. [-----------]

-n
1-(1+i)
;
1 1
.. = [ ------ - ------- ]
(Present Value of Annuity).
i i(1+i)

.
(.. ..)
:
i

.... =

....

+ + + .
(1+i)1
(1+i)2
(1+i)3

1
= ( +

1
1
+ + .)

(1+i)1

(1+i)2

(1+i)3

1
1

= K K =
1
(1+i)n
i
i

. ..

1

(1+i)n
1
1
.
(1+i)
(1+i)n
1
1
n ,
1 (1+i)n
i

K
.... =
i
i
x x<i,
K
.... =

i-x

.. n .

/ i
.. = [..(..) 1 ] - [..(..) n ] = -
i
1
1
.. = [ - ]
i
i(1+i)n

1
K = .. []
1-(1+i)-n

(1+i)n

..

(i)

1
1
[ - ]
n
i
i(1+i)

..= (1+i)n

()

(nnuity Discounting Factor)

(1+i)-n
. =
r n
0 . .
(n)

..
K ..
.
3.5:
()

(i)

()

0
()
1
K = .. [-----------]
1-(1+i)

-n

1 1
.. = [ ------ - ------- ]
i i(1+i)


$10.000.000 6% 10
.
.
ETH

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

1 358 680
1 358 680
1 358 680
1 358 680
1 358 680
1 358 680
1 358 680
1 358 680
1 358 680
1 358 680

10 000 000
9 241 320
8 437 120
7 584 668
6 681 068
5 723 253
4 707 968
3 631 767
2 490 993
1 281 773

600 000
554 479
506 227
455 080
400 864
343 395
282 478
217 906
149 460
76 906

758 680
804 200
852 452
903 600
957 815
1 015 284
1 076 201
1 140 774
1 209 220
1 281 773

$ 10.
10 6%
(...(n,r)). :
1
1
= = 10.000.000 = 1.358.680
...(n,r).
7,360087051
To
r. 1,2,3

10.000.000 x 6% = 600.000 ( 1)
9.241.320 x 6% = 554.476 ( 2)
8 437 120 x 6% = 506 227 ( 3) ..

.

.

3.4

.
:
1. (Net Present Value - NPV)
2. (Internal Rate Of Return - IRR)
3.4.1 (..)
,

.



.
:
(-)0 (-)1 (-)2
(-)n
.. = + + + .
1
1+i
(1+i)2
(1+i)n
= ,
=
,
i =
n =
...
(Net Cash Flow) (max) ...
, ,

.
,
.
... 0


.
.
..
.

.
..

.
.
...
.
.. $100.000
$300.000,
.
.
...,
.. ,
, .

.
.. .
$ 100.000 5%, 5
( = 0). (...)

(n)

.
(1/(1+i)n

0
1
2
3
4
5

1,000
0,952
0,907
0,864
0,823
0,784
..

-100 000
100
120 000
130 000
150 000
160 000

-100 000
95
108 844
112 299
123 405
125 364
370 007

( )
.

.
$ 100.000 10%, 4 .
(...) .

(1+2+3-4)
6

7 (..)
8
(...)
1
2
3
4
5

0
100.000

-100.000

10.000
15.000
80.000
55.000

20.000
25.000
130.000
85.000

30.000
35.000
190.000
125.000

30.000
35.000
200.000
135.000

0,909

0,826

0,751

0,683

-100.000
206.362

50.000

70.244

93.913

92.205

... (206.362)
.

50.000 dwt $15.000.000,
5 $5 .
$300.000
10%
$600.000. 5
11,5 . 6
$10.000.000. 10%
.

= 50.000 dwt x 5 x 11.5 = $2.875.000

..
.


1.

0
1
-15 000 000

2.

3.

300 000

330 000

363 000

399 300

439 230

600 000

600 000

600 000

600 000

600000

4.

2 875 000 2 875 000 2 875 000 2 875 000 2 875 000

(1-2-3+4)

6
10000000

-15 000 000 1 975 000 1 945 000 1 912 000 1 875 700 1 835 770 10 000 000

1
0,909
0,826
0,751
0,683
0,620
0,564
(10%)

-15 000 000 1 795 455 1 607 438 1 436 514 1 281 128 1 139 869 5 644 739
..

-2 094 857

.


.
$20.000
$100.000.
10%
.

.

0
1
2
3
4
5

-100000
20000
29000
35000
50000
60000

. .
1
0,909
0,826
0,751
0,683
0,629

.. .
-100000
18180
23954
26285
34150
37740
40.309

0
1
2
3
4
5

-20000
2000
3500
5000
6000
7000

.
.
1
0,909
0,826
0,751
0,683
0,629
..

.. .
-20000
1818
2891
3755
4098
4403
-3.035

0
1
2
3
4
5

-120000
25000
33000
42000
55000
70000

.
.
1
0,909
0,826
0,751
0,683
0,629

.. .
-120000
22725
27258
31542
37565
44030
43.120

..,
.. .
..,

.


..
.

, ..,

.
:
1.
2.
.

 , 6
,
.

. .

$ 000(10% )
0
1
2
3
4
NPV
-1000
350
500
400
550
407,59
-2000
300
700
600
1200
121,64
-3000
600
900
1200
2000
556,86
-1000
500
600
700
476,33
-700
200
300
500
250
276,16
-1600
600
700
500
-100,38
1
0,909
0,826
0,751
0,683

.. -
.
0 $
7,7 .. . $1.838.590.
$ 5 , ;

, .. /
0.
..
- . =
0
.
:

..
407,59
121,64
556,86
476,33
276,16
-100,38

0
-1000
-2000
-3000
-1000
-700
-1600

-
0,408
0,061
0,186
0,476
0,395
-0,063

2
5
4
1
3
6

$ 5 0
. , , (100%)
$2,7. $1,3 ($5 - $2,7)
( 43,3%) . ..

 ..
( ) .

0
($000)
-1000
-1000
-700
-3000
-2000

A
E

%

100%
100%
100%
43,33%
0

..
476,33
407,59
276,16
241,29

$ 5 . 0 ..
$1.401.370 $1.838.590,
.

0 . '

.

.
0, 1 2. 000 $.

0
-1.000
-500

1
-600
-800
-1.000

0,8696

2
-100
1.000
-100
-1.500
0,7561

-1.500

-2.400

-1.700

3
1.500
1.000
2.000
2.000
0,6575

4
1.500
2.000
1.000
0,5718

...
246,58
217,92
1.513,4
752,65

.
500 $ 0-2.
, , , , , , .
f
Max f = 246,58 a + 217,92 b + 1.513,4 c + 752,65 d )
0-2
:

 0
1
2

1000 a + 500 b + 0 c + 0 d 500

600 a + 800 b + 1000 c + 0 d 500
100 a + 0 b + 100 c + 1500 d 500

0a, b, c, d 1
H f Simplex
. ,

.
..,

.
..,
,
.

3.4.2 ()
(...)
(yield) ,

, .
, (r) :
(-)0 (-)1 (-)2
(-)n
0 = + + + .
1
1+r
(1+r)2
(1+r)n

r
(i), (r>i).

r
(i), (r<i).

,
r, r>i.

.
.

,
.

,
.
,
.
.
..
. ,
, .. 25% $200.000
15% $300.000;
, ,
.. ,

.
...
2 ,

 .
, ...
1
(Linear Interpolation),
...

...
...
( )
... ,

K...1
...= 1 + [ x (2-1) ]
...1 - ...2

1 ,
2 ,
K...1 .. 1,
K...2 .. 2,

0
1
2
3
4
5

-10000
2000
3000
3500
4000
4500

10% 20%,
...


0
1
2
3
4
5
..

10%

-10000
2000
3000
3500
4000
4500

.
.
1
0,909
0,826
0,751
0,683
0,629

.. .

-10000
1818
2478
2628,5
2732
2830,5
2487

20%

-10000
2000
3000
3500
4000
4500

.
.
1
0,833
0,694
0,578
0,482
0,401

.. .

-10000
1666
2082
2023
1928
1804,5
-496,5

:
K...1
...= 1 + [ x (2-1) ]
...1 - ...2
2487
...= 0,1 + [ x (0,2 0,1 ] = 18,3
2487 (- 496,5)
2


,


=


, ,
...
.
Co=10.000.000 . 6
11%.
2.500.000 ., ...

:

..
(R)

0
1
2
3
4
5
6

-10x106
+2,5x106
+2,5x106
+2,5x106
+2,5x106
+2,5x106
+2,5x106

(1+r)-n
r1=11
%
1
0,901
0,812
0,731
0,659
0,593
0,535

Co

(1+r)-n
r2=12
%
1
0,893
0,797
0,712
0,635
0,567
0,507

(1+r)-n
r3=13
%
1
0,885
0,783
0,693
0,613
0,543
0,480

R(1+r1)-n

R(1+r2)-n

R(1+r3)-n

-10x106
2.252.500
2.030.000
1.827.500
1.647.500
1.482.500
1.337.500
10.577.50
0
+577.500

-10x106
2.232.500
1.992.500
1.780.000
1.587.500
1.417.500
1.267.500
10.377.500

-10x106
2.212.500
1.957.500
1.732.500
1.532.500
1.357.500
1.200.000
9.992.500

+377.500

-7.500

377500
... = 0,12 + x (0,13-0,12)= 0,1298 = 12,98%
13%
377500 (- 7500)
... (12,98%)
(r=11%) .
2
15x10 6.
10x106 15x106 0,666.

13% 1-6 ( ) 6
. ... 13%.
4
( $) .
18% ...
.

0
1
2
3
4

-3.000
2.000
1.000
1.500
500

.. r1= 29%
-3.000
1.550,4
600,9
698,7
180,5

.. r2= 30%
-3.000
1.538,4
591,7
682,8
175,1

 ... 30,5
r1 12 r2. :
30,5
... = 0,29 + x ( 0,30 0,29 ) =
0,2972=29,72%
30,5 (- 12)
...
.

1.
400.000
2.
300.000
3.
200.000
4.
0
20.000 30.000 40.000 50.000 50.000 50.000 50.000 50.000
5.
0
185.000 200.000 225.000 275.000 300.000 375.000 425.000 425.000
6.
0
370.000 400.000 450.000 550.000 600.000 750.000 850.000 850.000
7.A.
(20%)
0
60.000 60.000 60.000 60.000 60.000 0
0
0
7.B.

(25%)
0
50.000 50.000 50.000 50.000 0
0
0
0
8.
0
110.000 110.000 110.000 110.000 60.000 0
0
0
9.
(-4-5+6-8)
-110.000 55.000 60.000 75.000 165.000 250.000 325.000 375.000 375.000
10. (9*40%)
0

(-1-2-3-4-5+6-10)

22.000 24.000 30.000 66.000 100.000 130.000 150.000 150.000

-900.000 143.000 146.000 155.000 159.000 150.000 195.000 225.000 225.000

(.
8%)
-900.000 132.407 125.171 123.044 116.870 102.087 122.883 131.285 121.560

..

75.309
9,982%

, .
,
.
, 1
, 18% 15%
, .
, 8%
6% , . '


. ,

 - ,
.

.
,
...
...

3.4.3


.
(
) '
. ,
, , "
" (risk premium),
. " "
1% 4%, .

.


,
.

.
.
,

(%) .


.
, ,

.
()

.
,

.
()
.
,
q,
.
r. ,

.

 ,
,
.
(Social Time Preference Rate STPR),


.
(Social Opportunity Cost),
.
,

.
3.6:

,
(%)

, ,

.
,
.

.

3.5 ()
()


.
2
.

. ,

;

2 .
:

.
,


. 20,000
200,000 5%.
5,981 15%,
48,185 14%.
. .
14,981 20,000
5,981 180,000
, 5%, 9,000 .
48,185

.
( ) .


.
.
.

.
.
.
.


. :

0
-400,000

1
1,020,000

2
-630,000

2 .
5% 50%.

5%

50%

5% 50%
, .
5%
5%, 10%, .
.

.
50,000
20%.
, 5%.
,
20%.
;

0
-700,000
-1,200,000

1
343,000
552,000

2
343,000
552,000

3
343,000
552,000

10%

22%
18%

139,082
157,038

350,000
300,000
250,000

200,000

150,000

100,000
50,000
0
4%

8%

12%

-50,000

16%

20%


.
.

.
12%
.
12%

.
.
.

(-)

0
-1,200,000
-700,000
-500,000

1
552,000
343,000
209,000

2
552,000
343,000
209,000

3
552,000
343,000
209,000

.
(incremental cash flow) (-)

12% 10%.
( -)
.

.
12%
,
.
.

,

4.1

.


.
4.2


,
,
.

, .


,




, .
,
, , ,
.
,
-
.



.


.
,

 ,

.


.

,
:
8

1.
2.
3.
4.

,
(
),

( , ).

.
9

: .

(
).
, ,
.

:
.
.
, ,
.
:
1. :

:
C. P. Stickney, R.L.Weil (2000) Financial Accounting, An Introduction to Concepts, Methods and
Uses 9th Edition, The Dryden Press, pp 235-261
., (1996) , , .
47-220
. (1985) . , ,
.219-221
9 .. (1994) " ",

, (, ), , ,
, ..
2. :
,
(, ),
( , ,
), (, ) (
).

:

.
, :
1. :
-.
2. :

.
.
3. :
,

,
, , ..

:
,


. ,
.

:
.
, , ,
..

.

: ,
,
( ).
, ,
, , , ,
.
(, )
,
.



.
4.3


.

(, , ),
.
,

. ,

,
.
,
-
, .
:

. =
(Return on Net Worth)


.


() .
,
. (
, , )
.

,

(. ),
.

,
.

(Return to Capital Employed)

,
( ).

(
).
. ,
,
,
.

. =
(Return on total assets)

.
.

,

.
,

.

. =
(Net Profit Margin)


, .
,
.

.



.

.



.

,
,
.

. =
(Financial Leverage Ratio)


,
.
,

, .

.



.

, :
10

=


.

.
.
.
.
4.4


,
.
10

. (1993) , , 48-54


, ,
, .


,
.
11

:

. =
(Asset Turnover Ratio)

.

.
.

.

. =
(Fixed Asset Turnover Ratio)

,
.
,
.
4.5


.

.


.
:

11

,
.

. () =
(Current Ratio)

( )

.
.


.

.
,
,

.
+ +

. () =
(Acid Test Ratio)


.

.

.
,
.
+ +
. =
(Defensive Interval Ratio)



(
)
.
4.6


.
.



.
:

. =
(Owners Equity to Total Assets
Ratio)

.

.

. (
)
,
. ,

.

. =
(Owners Equity to Total Liability
Ratio)
,

.
, .

.

.
=
(Owners Equity to Fixed

Assets Ratio)

.

.

(Current Assets to Total Liability

Ratio)


.

.
.

. =
(Times Interest earned)

( )

. ,

.
4.7

,
, ,

.
..

:
/ ,

/ ,

/ ,

.

=


.
- +
+

.
:
/ .
/
= + + /

 5



.
,
.
,
, .

.
5.1

,
.

.

,
.

2.1.

, , .

, .
5.1:
1) z2
(
z3

(p)

p1

0
q1

q2

(q)

(p 1)
(q1) .
1, q1 - q2
( ,
, ).
2, 3,
.
,

,
.

(shipbrokers),
, (charterer),
(shipowner),
() ().

, , .
12

,
.
5.2

, ,
.


.

.
.
13

.


.
12

.(1997) ,
13 . (2001) . , . 58-59


.
,


.


.
, ,

.
, ,
.
. ,


.
,
,
(
).


.

.
,


.
, .
.


. .

5.3


.

,
.
,
(40-50 ), (9-10
) (3-4 ), : --.
, :

,
,
,
,
,

,

,
,
,
, ..

.
,
,
.

,
, .
,
.
,
, ,
(2 )
.
,
,
.
,
, ,

.

5.4

.

(.. , , )
, . ,

. ,
,
.

. ,
.
-
.

.

.



' .

(, )
.
, ,
,
.
(
),

.

.

5.5

,

,
. ,
,

mill gt

2.1 (100 gt
)
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1990

1991

1992

OIL TANKERS

1993

1994

1995

1996

ORE&BULK CARRIERS

1997

1998

OTHER

: Institute of Shipping Economics and Logistics "Shipping Statistics Yearbook 1999", . ISL
(1999)

,
()
( ).
(
, , )
.
( , ,
.)
:
.
. (
, ), ,
(,
)

:
. , ,
.
,
.


.
, ,
.

.

, , ,
.

,
.
,
.
,
, .
(,
) (, )
.
,
, (
2 )
.
( ) ,
.

.

.

.


.
,

.

:

,
.

,
.

 bulk carriers
,
1980-1990,
,
1988-1989. Panamax 70,000 $ 14
. 1981 $ 31 1991. 1990

,
1996
1999.
, .

5.2

mill US $

80
60
40
20
0
1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

Bulk Carrier

Tanker

Bulk Carrier

Tanker

1998

: (www.oecd.org)
: 150 000 dwt

, .
bulk carrier 5
Tanker 1989-1990
: Institute of Shipping Economics and Logistics "Shipping Statistics
Yearbook 1999", . ISL (1999)
,

.
(

). ,

(). ,
,
.

 (tramp trade)
:
.
.

.
-.

(). ,
(,
, , )
, , , .

.

.
,

. :

(Gross terms),
.
(Free in and out - f.i.o.),
.
(free on board - f.o.b.),
.
(free discharge - f.d.),
.

.
.
.

.
,
,
, .
.
,
, , ,
, , ,
. .

:
( ) x ( ) x () (
)

.

, .

.
.

.
.

.
.
,
.
. trip time chartering

.


.

 5.1

()
()

,

.
( ).

.
:
( ) x (
) x ( ) x 2*
(*
).

 (leasing)
.
, ( lessor) ,
(lessee)
.
. ,
.
14

15

. , ,
,

.
,
.

,
.

. leasing

.
16

:
.

.
.
,
.
.

100% 70%
.
.

, ,

14

J.E. Sloggett (1998)"Shipping Finance", Fairplay, p 73-78.

.. , , .16.
16 Philip Cheng, Financial Management in the Shipping Industry,
15

.

.
.

.


.
.

, ,
.

, ,
. ,
,
.
,
. leasing,

.
.
.
-

leasing.
.


70%.


.
17

.

. ,
,
.
,
,
, .

17

.. , , .81-82.


,

.
.

,
,

,2,3.
1

.
,
. ,
leasing 10 ,

.
back-to-back


.
:
18

.

.
,
.
.
.
,
, .
, .
.

.
,
.
,
. ,
,
19

1
18
19

.., ,.116.
P.Stokes, Ship Financing, p. 134-135.


,
,
.
,
, ,
,
.
.
leasing .
leasing
. leasing

,
. ,
, ,
,
leasing,
20

,
.
,
, 20 , .
,

. ,

. ,
,
,
.


.
,
.

. '
,
.
21

,
,
,
20
21

P.Stokes, Ship Financing, p.130-131.

P. Stokes, Ship Financing, 124


.
. '

,
.
22

23

24

. ,
, .

90,
, .
25

5.6

:

( )

5.7

:

()

(, .)

,

.
,
,
.
-

,
. ,
26

22
23

"OUTLOOK", : "Banks and Shipping Finance", December 1989, . 18

P. Stokes, Ship Financing, 124

24
25
26

P. Stokes, Ship Finance, 89

Wijnolst N. & Wergeland T., Shipping, Delf University Press, 1996 p.565.

 .

.
5.2 timing.

1970-74.
spot 20
, .
.. US $/dwt,
( ).
5.2:
(timing)

1970
1971
1972
1973
1974

.. (US $/dwt)
154
97
74
71
-5

(US $/dwt)
63
71
100
129
129

1968
1969
1970
1971
1972

,

.

.


.
,

.
,
.

 6


6.1
'
" ",
, . ,
,

. ,

.
,

.

.

.

.

:

,
100%

6.2. (Expected
NPV)
..
,

.


$20.000
10%.
(, , )
. ..
..
, ..
.. . . ..
, ,
.
..
0
1

20000 9500

20000 5000

20000 3000
0,909
. . 1
1

..

11326,0
12000 17000 7
20%

2265,21

7000 13000 97,67 60%

58,60
5000 7000 7881,29 20%
-1576,26
0,826 0,751
...
4
3
= 767,56

..
,
:

, ...

(risk free interest
rate).
6.3 (Risk
Adjusted Interest Rate)
H
:
i = i +
i = (adjusted)
i = (risk free)
= (risk premium)



.

..,
.
6.4

.

6.4.1.


.
.
:

x = +

x = + ( x )



= =

-


. ..
.
.. :
=
= x ( + (x)) = x - x = ( )-
= ( )- = 0
.

500
2.000.
.
30. . 1.000.


30.000.000
= = = 30.000

2.000 1.000
30.000 60%
[=(30000/500)x100].
30.000 x 500 = 15.000.000.

= 30.000 ( 2.000 1000)- 30.000.000) = 0
10% (
500(500x10%)= 550) :
= ( )- = 550(2000-1000) = 550.000.
6.4.2.


, ,
.

$300.000
10% .
0
1
1.

300.000
2.
40.000
3.

30.000
4.
180.000

40.000

40.000

40.000

45.000

60.000

75.000

200.000 250.000 310.000

(-1-2-3+4)
-300.000 110.000 115.000 150.000 195.000

-300.000 100.000 95.041 112.697 133.188
..
140.926

16%

1.

 ..
().
..,
110.000 115.000 150.000 195.000
.. = - + + + +
1,1
(1,1)2
(1,1)3
(1,1)4

10% $
330.000 .. $
110.926 12%.
2.
z%
.. .
.. z :
(180.000z 70.000)
(200.000z 85.000)
.. = - 300.000 + + +
1,1
(1,1)2
(250.000z 100.000)
(310.000z 115.000)
+ +
(1,1)3
(1,1)4

20% .. = 4.772
= -1%, ceteris paribus
20% ..,
.

.
3.

.. z
:
(180.000 30.000 40.000z)
(200.000 45.000 40.000z)
.. = - 300.000 + +
1,1
(1,1)2
(250.000 60.000 40.000z)
(310.000 75.000 40.000z)
+ +

(1,1)3

(1,1)4

10% ..
$114.897 14%.

.
4.
z .. .
110.000
115.000
150.000
195.000
.. = - 300.000+ + + +
1+iz
(1+iz)2
(1+iz)3
(1+iz)4

2% ( 10% 12%)
110.000 115.000 150.000 195.000
.. = -300.000+ + + +
1,2
(1,2)2
(1,2)3
(1,2)4

.. = 120.585 = 14%.

5.
4 3,
110.000 115.000 150.000
.. = - 300.000 + + +
1,1
(1,1)2
(1,1)3

.. $7.739 1%
..
1-5

.. = 0

.

.
.
.

(..=0)
z
x

6.5

,

. '

. ,
.
,
.
, , -
,

.
" ".
:
1+ i
1+r =
1+

r ,
i
.
.
14% 10%,
3,6%.

10% 8%,

 100.000 4
, .
18,8%. :

1.

1*
2.
2*
3..
3*
4.
4*
.

(-1*-2*-3*+4*)
.. .
.
...

0
100.000

-100.000

10.000
10.800
15.000
16.200
80.000
86.400
59.400

20.000
21.600
25.000
27.000
130.000
140.400
91.800

30.000
32.400
35.000
37.800
190.000
205.200
135.000

30.000
32.400
35.000
37.800
200.000
216.000
145.800

-100.000

64.152

99.144

145.800

157.464

100.000

206.362

1,2,3,4 ,
1*,2*,3*,4* . ..
.


(real prices) ().
, . . ,
(nominal price)
.
,
n :
= (1+)n

... ,
(nominal & real interest rate).
, r r
, :
(1+r) =(1+ r) (1+)
/
.. :

[(-)0]

[(-)1]

[(-)2]

[(-)n]

.. = + + + . +
1
1+i
(1+i)2
(1+i)n

[(-)0]
[(-)1]
[(-)2]
[(-)n]
.. = + + + . +
1
1+i
(1+i)2
(1+i)n

(-) = (-) (1+) ,

[(-)0]
[(-)1] (1+) [(-)2] (1+)2
[(-)n] (1+)n
.. = + + + .. +
1
(1+i) (1+)
(1+i)2 (1+) 2
(1+i)n (1+) n

[(-)0]
[(-)1]
[(-)2]
[(-)n]
..o = + + + . + = ..
1
1+i
(1+i)2
(1+i)n

..

..o = ..

( ) .
,
,

 7

7.1

.



, .
,
,
.


.


, ,




.


.

. ,
,
,
.
.

,
.
,
, , ,
.

.



19 .


.


(consumer surplus)
.
27

100 ,

.
,
.

, . ,

.
1930-1950
...

(alternative cost justifiable method).

,
.
1960

.
- (Cost Benefit Analysis)
. 1961

.
, 1970

(World Bank) .
,

.
1980

.
27

Nakamura H. The economic evaluation of transport infrastructure:

needs for international comparisons, Transport Policy 7(2000) pp3-6

 ,

.


,
,
.
7.2

,

.

, .

.

.


, :

,
.
7.3

.


.


.

, :
1. ,

2.

,
.
1.

,
.

,

.

,
.

,
(.. .)
.
28

,
, ,
:
1. ,
, (,
)
2.
3. ,

4.
(, .)

28

270-271

 ,
:
= (%)

,
.

.

$20 +30%
$ 26. (= $20(1+30%)).
.
,
.
:
.
,
, , .
,
.
(.. )
.


.

n

. :
t

t=0
(1+I)t
n

t = t
i =

()

.
.



.

,
, ,
.
,

. :

:

(, ) 20%
,
.
,
.
:
x 0,8 =
0,8 ( 80%)
20% .
,
,
,
.



,
.

.

% . ,

,
,
15%. ,
13%,
21% 11%.
.
.
.
.
.

7.4

,
.
.
, ,

.
, ,
,

.

,

. ,

,
.
.
7.4.1.



.
, , ,
, (, ,
.) (, ,
.).

,
, ,
. ,
,
.


:
,

.



. , ,

.
,

. ,
.
(
.)
.

.

1,30 (
.. 30%)

.
,
:
,
,
.

,

0,8.
, 1,30.

:

.

.
,

.
,
.


.
7.4.2

.
(externalities)
.
,
. :
,
,
,
,
,
(, )

29

29

. . . .
, 2002

7.4.3

.
:

.


. .
,
:
-
-
-
-

7.4.4

7.5 Case Study

.


.

,
.

 30,

.
,

, .
.
,

. ,

.
.

. ,
, , .
,

. ,
31:
-

: DM 1,320,000,
DM 60,000,
DM 5,200,

, ( ,
.), (

) ( .,
).

30Vickerman

R.
Evaluation Methodologies for transport projects in
the U.K. Transport Policy 7 (2000) 7-16
31 Rothengatter W. Evaluation
of infrastructure investments in
Germany Transport Policy 7 (2000) 17-25

 (1994 euro)

1,389,000
368,000

716,000

1,214,000
562,000
789,000
132,000
945,000

1,416,000

113,000
34,000
67,000
1,643,000
1,010,000

1,777,000

: ,
, , .
.

.

,
.
CO2 ,
( PM10
NO2) .
.
:
-

.

.


. .

 ,

(, .)
.
6. 6
7.


,

( ).


:

.

,

1,30.
.
.


.
.


. ,
.

0,8 .
,
(.. ) .
.
0,8,
1,3.
.
0,8, (
) 1,3
c.i.f. .
0,8.
.
,
1,3.
0,8.

.
, .
0,8 1,3.
.
0,8 1,3 .
.
, . .
. ,

, .

.
. .
. 0,8
1,3.
:

.
.

.

1,3.

1,3.

, (
) , ..

.

0,8.
,
, , , ,
.
.
,
.
7.7


.

.

, :

()

()

7.7.1
()
- .



.

=ng
,
n=

g=

:
1,5<n<2, n=2
g= 0,04
8%
32
6%.

7.7.2 (...)
....
... .

:
1.
2. ,

3. ( - )

4.
32

Quinet E. Evaluation methodologies of transportation projects in France Transport Policy 7

(2000) pp. 27-34

 .... :
(-)0

(-)1

(-)2

(-)n

... = + + + .
1
1+i
(1+i)2
(1+i)n
....
.
7.7.3 ()
.... .
(r)
:

0 =

(-)0 (-)1 (-)2

(-)n
+ + + .
1
1+r
(1+r)2
(1+r)n

r (i),
(r>i).
r (i),
(r<i).
,
r, r>i.
7.7.4 -
-

.
:
-
=
-
=
.
=
.
= .
= .

, >1.

 . =1

. ,
, .

,
0,1 ... :
0

-3000
-1500
-2500
-1200
1400
1400

-1200
-2000
-1600
-3500
-1000
-1400

...
450
600
650
550
100
-200

...
... ( , , ). (... / 0)
' , :
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.

= 0,406
= 0,375
= 0,300
= 0,157
= 0,100
= -0,143

.

.
0
5000 . , 100% (, , )
5,71% . ,
0 . , 1
5500 ,
... 1 ,
,
. 1, :
1.
2.
3.
4.

= 0,46
= 0,40
= 0,26
= 0,15

 ,
1 6900 100%
, , 56,67% .
, 100%
, ,
, ' ...,
1
. , ,
1300 , ,
1300/1400=92,86%. ,
... -185,71 (43,33%)
195, ... 9,29.
, ,
, ... .