Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Definition
IPCC: Change in climate over time, whether due to natural variability or as a result of human activity. Different from UNFCCC: change of climate that is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and that is in addition to natural
Introduction
Throughout time, the earth's climate has always been changing
produced ice ages
how do we measure climate change in the past? how are we predicting climate change in the future?
O16 will evaporate more readily than O18 since it is lighter Hence, during a warm period, the relative amount of O18 will increase in the ocean waters since more of the O16 is evaporating Hence, looking at the ratio of O16 to O18 in the past can give clues about global temperatures. Ice cores from glaciers can also give you similar information
More recently, North American glaciers reached maximum thickness 18,000-22,000 years ago --> Land connecting Asia and N. America along the Bering Sea was exposed since a great deal of the water was locked up in glaciers
since late 1800's, we've been in a warming trend avg temp has increased by about 1C the eight hottest years of this century have occurred since 1979 The data suggest a warming trend of 0.30.6C over the last 100 years. So, is the recent warming due to anthroprogenic causes enhanced greenhouse effect due to increasing CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere or is it due to natural fluctuations in climate?????
Scientists are now quite certain that much of the recent warming is due to anthroprogenic causes, i.e., increased greenhouse gas emissions due to fossil fuel consumption and land use changes. What are natural and anthroprogenic factors that affect climate?
Theory of Plate Tectonics - Continental Drift Earths outer shell is composed of plates --> they move at a rate of about 3 cm per year affect of more land at higher latitudes: alter ocean currents and therefore heat transport alter global atmospheric circulation more glaciers over land, higher albedo, cooler temps. plate movement also generates more volcanic activity hence, when the plates are on the move, have more volcanic eruptions -> emit more CO2 into atmosphere this would cause global temps to rise. if there is little movement, volcanic activity decreases -> so CO2 concentrations are lower in the atmosphere -> avg temp decreases
CO2 natural and anthropogenic sources recent increase due to fossilfuel combustion and deforestation CH4 natural and anthropogenic sources about 1/2 of current emissions are anthropogenic (land fills, natural gas, agriculture) N2O natural and anthropogenic sources nitrogen-based fertilizers Other important Greenhouse Gases: CFCs Ozone and of course, water vapor!
Climate Change - Increasing Concentrations of CO2 and other Green House Gases
Glaciers and Snow Cover: Glaciers and ice caps will continue their widespread retreat during the 21st century and NH snow cover and sea ice are projected to decrease further. NOTE: The Antarctic ice sheet is likely to gain mass because of greater precipitation Sea Level Rise: A sea level rise of 0.09 0.88 meters is projected for 1990-2100. Thermal expansion of the oceans Loss of mass from glaciers and ice caps
Policy implications
Two categories of instruments need to be considered: Domestic policy instruments to enable individual nations to achieve their specific targets/goals International policy instruments to allocate responsibility among nations Main criteria Cost effectiveness (Minimum aggregate costs) Dynamic incentives for technology innovation and diffusion Adaptability to economic and social changes Distributional equity Institutional (political and administrative) feasibility
How to combat?
Green house gas emission reduction - a collective target Collective responsibility Bilateral or multilateral policy Voluntary agreement leads to free riding and leakages Free riding arises when countries that do not contribute to reduction also benefits Emission leakage occurs when abatement by cooperating countries alters world relative prices and leads noncooperating countries to increase emissions Kyoto Protocol an agreement made under UNFCCC Countries that ratify agreed to reduce the emissions below a target level or engage in emissions trading if they maintain or increase the green house gases Objective: Stabilization of the greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system
Kyoto Protocol
The Kyoto Protocol sought a 5.2% reduction in overall (carbon equivalent) green house gas emissions by 2008-2012 relative to 1990 Targets apply only to industrialized countries developing countries not mandatory Target differentiated among industrialized countries Actual reduction commitments are further smaller in subsequent negotiations Flexibility introduced through Emissions Trading Joint implementation Clean Development Mechanism Kyoto Protocol came into force in 2005 172 countries ratified latest entry Australia
Conventional Energy: energy efficient plants using latest technology improvement of the energy efficiency of old plants building of cogeneration plants for heat and power
Fuel Change: from CO2-intensive fuels to less CO2 causing fuels (e.g. a switch from coal to gas) optimization of the energy supply (from central to decentralized or vice versa) Waste management: implementation of gas collection and combustion systems at landfills separate collection and utilization of biomass
Creation of energy carriers: reduction of the flaring volatile components optimization of the chain of transportation reduction of transport losses efficiency increase for further utilization Transportation: Replacement of the vehicle fleet implementation fuels with low CO2 output transposition to natural gas or hydrogen utilization of biofuels upgrading public transport (error detection) Agriculture: Cultivation of "biofuels" recycling of liquid manure avoidance of methane output from liquid manure reduction of the methane output of farm animals
Chemistry: implementation of efficient processes avoidance of the output of GHG reset of GHG avoidance of flaring Forestry: afforestation and reforestation opening of new conservation areas opening of plantations with afforestation plans long term usage of wood
How is it traded?
The CER is sold at a price negotiated between the buyer and the seller. Currently, Indian sellers are able to realise 15-20 euros on an average per CER. The major factor affecting the price of CER is the EUA (European Union Allowance) market price. EUAs refer to the secondary market for CERs where the buyer purchases emission allowances created and auctioned by the regulators. Here the CER is offered with a guarantee of delivery by the regulator. Project and delivery risk is borne by this entity in the secondary market. CERs often command a higher price than those bought directly from a project. Future and Option contracts on these EUAs are traded in ECX and are experiencing increasing growth. Since launch in April 2005, the EUA futures contract has seen close to1.3 billion tonnes CO2 traded with an underlying market value of 24 billion euros. ECX will also shortly introduce futures and options contracts on CERs.