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 WASHINGTON'S KOSOVO POLICY
Consequences and Contradictions
by Gary T. Dempsey
Executive Summary
Although U.S. ambassador Christopher Hill is trying tobroker an interim political agreement between Belgrade andmoderate ethnic Albanians in the embattled Serbian provinceof Kosovo, there is no assurance that the militant KosovoLiberation Army (KLA) will end its violent struggle forindependence if an agreement is reached. Meanwhile, the UNhas issued Security Council Resolution 1199 demanding acease-fire in Kosovo, and the Clinton administration haspoised itself militarily and rhetorically for interventionin the conflict. Yet the White House still has notexplained to the American public how U.S. national securityis threatened in Kosovo, what the potential costs of inter-vention are in American lives and defense spending, and howanother military commitment in the Balkans will affect thenation's readiness to respond to crises elsewhere in theworld.Above all, the Clinton administration's present coursein Kosovo is both contradictory and potentially counterpro-ductive--a dangerous mix that threatens to mire the UnitedStates in another internecine conflict overseas. Specific-ally, the interventionist measures that Washington is nowconsidering could further encourage the KLA, widen the con-flict, set back the prospect of democratic reform inYugoslavia, and perpetuate European security dependence onthe United States. ____________________________________________________________
Gary T. Dempsey, a foreign policy analyst at the CatoInstitute, recently returned from Kosovo and Montenegro.
 
October 8, 1998 No. 321
 
Introduction
The Clinton administration's increasing involvement inthe conflict in Serbia's Kosovo province--from threateningnew economic sanctions and NATO intervention againstYugoslavia, to increasing military and intelligence tieswith Albania--could backfire. Specifically, the interven-tionist path the administration is now on could encouragethe KLA, widen the conflict, further undermine theprospect of democratic reform in Yugoslavia, perpetuateEuropean security dependence on the United States, andmire Americans in another internecine conflict in theBalkans. To fully appreciate those dangerous possibili-ties, however, Kosovo's long and tumultuous history mustfirst be understood.
Kosovo's Long and Tumultuous History
Bordering Albania and Macedonia, Kosovo is the south-ernmost province of present-day Serbia, which, togetherwith Montenegro, makes up what remains of the FederalRepublic of Yugoslavia. Kosovo was originally populatedby Illyrians, an ancient people who inhabited the westernpart of the Balkans from about 2000 B.C. The earliestknown Illyrian king was Hyllus, who died in 1225 B.C., andthe last was Gentius, who was defeated by the Romans in165 B.C.
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Although many scholars dispute it, many modernAlbanians contend that they are the direct descendents ofthe ancient Illyrians and thus the original inhabitants ofKosovo.The first Slavs appeared around Kosovo in the late4th century A.D. as marauders who raided Roman settle-ments. By the end of the 8th century, the Slavs had colo-nized most of the area of modern Yugoslavia, includingKosovo.Serbs are not identified until the 10th century writ-ings of Byzantine emperor Constantine VII. There, theyare described as Slavs residing in the area of present-dayKosovo, Montenegro, and Bosnia, and who converted toEastern Christianity in the 9th century. In the 12th cen-tury, Serbs successfully fought against the ByzantineEmpire to establish an independent Serbian kingdom.Kosovo was crucial to that kingdom and to the SerbianOrthodox church for the next two centuries. In fact, vir-tually all of the oldest monuments in Kosovo are SerbianOrthodox and most of place names have a Serbian languageroot. But in 1389, the Serb dynasty fell to the OttomanEmpire at the battle of Kosovo Polje. Although they
 
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fought alongside Serbs during the battle, most ethnicAlbanians in the area converted to Islam in the 15th and16th centuries and participated in the Ottoman administra-tion of Kosovo.As the Ottoman Empire declined in the 18th and 19thcenturies, Kosovo became the focus of competing Serbianand Albanian independence movements. In 1878, the Leagueof Prizren, which sought to create an independent Albanianstate, was founded in Kosovo. But when the Ottoman Empirefinally buckled under the weight of the First Balkan Warin 1912, Kosovo became part of Serbia once again. By thattime, Serbs comprised only about 20 to 25 percent ofKosovo's population.
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Kosovo after World War I
At the end of World War I, Serbia joined with Croatiaand Slovenia to form the new state of Yugoslavia, withKosovo remaining a constituent part of Serbia. During the1920s, Serbian authorities attempted to repopulate Kosovowith Serbs. By 1928, the Serb population was increased toabout 38 percent, mainly because of state-organized immi-gration from Serbia.
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But during World War II, afterYugoslavia was defeated by the Axis Powers in April 1941,the population trend lines in Kosovo were reversed. Italyceded the province to neighboring Albania, which had beenunder Axis occupation since 1939, and Kosovo was ruled aspart of Italian-occupied Albania for the remainder of thewar. Between 1941 and 1945, more than 70,000 Serbs fledKosovo while 75,000 Albanians migrated there.
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After World War II, Kosovo was returned to Serbia.Wanting to forge a Balkan communist federation withAlbania and Bulgaria, the new Yugoslav government underJosip Broz Tito hoped that the prospect of reacquiringKosovo would draw Albania into the pact. Tito, therefore,wanted Kosovo to remain predominantly Albanian. On March6, 1945, he issued a decree forbidding Serbs displaced bythe war from returning to their homes in Kosovo.
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The fol-lowing year, Kosovo was made an "autonomous region" withinSerbia. Tito’s plan to create a Balkan communist federa-tion, however, collapsed in 1948 when Yugoslavia brokewith the Soviet-led Cominform.Nevertheless, the ethnic Albanian population in Kosovocontinued to grow and to push for greater autonomy. In1963, Kosovo was made an "autonomous province," and underYugoslavia's 1974 constitution, it was granted separatefederal representation and was only formally linked withPage 3
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