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O
n March 29, 2008, Zimbabwe will hold presiden-tial and parliamentary elections. Few peoplebelieve that they will be free and fair or that RobertMugabe and his Zimbabwe African National Union–Patriotic Front party will fail to return to office.That is a tragedy, because Mugabe and his cronies arechiefly responsible for an economic meltdown that hasturned one of Africa’s most prosperous countries into a country with one of the lowest life expectancies in theworld. Since 1994, the average life expectancy in Zimbabwehas fallen from 57 years to 34 years for women and from 54years to 37 years for men. Some 3,500 Zimbabweans dieevery week from the combined effects of HIV/AIDS, pover-ty, and malnutrition. Half a million Zimbabweans may have died already. There is no freedom of speech or assem-bly in Zimbabwe, and the state has used violence to intimi-date and murder its opponents. At the root of Zimbabwe’s problems is a corrupt politicalelite that has, with considerable international support,behaved with utter impunity for some two decades. Thiselite is determined to hang on to power no matter what theconsequences, lest it be held to account for the genocide inMatabeleland in the early 1980s and the wholesale lootingof Zimbabwe that followed the mismanaged land reform in2000.When change comes to Zimbabwe, the nation will haveto rediscover the rule of law and the sanctity of persons andproperty. The public discourse and the economy will haveto be reopened. The new government will have to embracea more limited idea of government and rescind legislationthat makes the operation of the private sector next toimpossible. Moreover, the new government will have tofind a way for the people of Zimbabwe to heal the woundscaused by decades of political violence.
the cato institute1000 Massachusetts Avenue, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20001-5403 www.cato.orgPhone (202) 842-0200 Fax (202) 842-3490March 24, 2008
no. 5
A Decade of Suffering in Zimbabwe
 Economic Collapse and Political Repression under Robert Mugabe
by David Coltart
 David Coltart is a member of the Parliament of Zimbabwe. Affiliated with the Movement for Democratic Change,he represents the Bulawayo South Constituency and serves as the shadow justice minister.
 Executive Summary
 
Snapshot of an EconomicCollapse
The economic decline of Zimbabwe, whichstarted in 1997, has been startling (see Figure1). For example, if not for remittances fromrelatives abroad, the 2007 purchasing powerof the average Zimbabwean would have fallento levels last seen in the 1950s. In terms of physical output, about 35 years of economicprogress have been undone in a decade. Grossdomestic product (GDP) declined by about43 percent between 2000 and 2007.
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Not surprisingly, every sector of the for-merly diverse Zimbabwean economy wasaffected. The mainstay of the economy, agri-culture, was all but destroyed by the politically expedient and often violent land reform pro-gram initiated by Robert Mugabe’s Zimbabwe African National Union–Patriotic Front gov-ernment in 2000. For example, annual wheatproduction has plummeted from a high of over 300,000 tons in 1990 to less than 50,000in 2007 (see Figure 2).The tobacco industry, which was Zimbab-we’s single largest generator of foreign ex-change and accounted for almost a third of Zimbabwe’s foreign exchange earnings in2000, has almost completely collapsed. Thecrop that earned some US$600 million in2000 generated less than US$125 million in2007 (see Figure 3).The government’s failure to keep spendingin line with the requirements of the EconomicStructural Adjustment Program that wasadministered by the International Monetary Fund meant that the government had to bor-row domestically—thus driving up the rate of interest and with it also the cost of borrowingfor manufacturers. The manufacturing sectorhas shrunk by more than 47 percent between1998 and 2006, which carried output levelsback to figures recorded in 1972(see Figure 4).
2
Foreign aid that Zimbabwe received as partof the ESAP strengthened the Zimbabweandollar and increased imports. Local manufac-turers, therefore, found themselves under pres-sure from the rapid increases in local costs, par-ticularly interest rates, and the decreasingdemand for their goods as competition fromimports increased.
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2
-15-10-5051015
        1        9        8        0        1        9        8        1        1        9        8        2        1        9        8        3        1        9        8        4        1        9        8        5        1        9        8        6        1        9        8        7        1        9        8        8        1        9        8        9        1        9        9        0        1        9        9        1        1        9        9        2        1        9        9        3        1        9        9        4        1        9        9        5        1        9        9        6        1        9        9        7        1        9        9        8        1        9        9        9        2        0        0        0        2        0        0        1        2        0        0        2        2        0        0        3        2        0        0        4        2        0        0        5        2        0        0        6        *        2        0        0        7
Severe drought yearsLand reform
Figure 1Annual GDPGrowth in Zimbabwe, 1980–2007
Source: John Robertson, “August 2007 Forecast Paper,” Robertson Economic Information Services for Zimbabwean Statistics, http://www.economic.co.zw.* Estimate.
   Y  e  a  r  -  o  n  -   Y  e  a  r   G  r  o  w   t   h   %
 
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050,000100,000150,000200,000250,000300,000350,000
   1   9   7   5   1   9   7   7   1   9   7   9   1   9   8   1   1   9   8   3   1   9   8   5   1   9   8   7   1   9   8   9   1   9   9   1   1   9   9   3   1   9   9   5   1   9   9   7   1   9   9   9   2   0   0   1   2   0   0   3   2   0   0   5   2   0   0   7
Severe drought yearsLand reform01002003004005006007002001200220032004200520062007
Figure 2Annual Wheat Production, 1975–2007
Source: John Robertson, “August 2007 Forecast Paper,” Robertson Economic Information Services for ZimbabweanStatistics, http://www.economic.co.zw.
Figure 3Annual Earnings from Tobacco, 2001–2007
Source: John Robertson, “August 2007 Forecast Paper,” Robertson Economic Information Services for ZimbabweanStatistics, http://www.economic.co.zw.
   T  o  n  s   P  r  o   d  u  c  e   d   U   S   $   (  m   i   l   l   i  o  n  s   )
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