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REfuel using bioenergy: truth or consequences?
Linda Forbes Unit A4 January 2007
INTRODUCTIONDespite some opposition, EU leaders committed to adopt a binding 20% targetfor the use of renewable energy by 2020. This agreement, and that of cuttingCO
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emissions by 20% from 1990 levels by the same year, was negotiated on 9
th
March 2007.Specifically, it calls for at least 10% of energy for road transport to come frombiofuels by 2020; thus expanding on the current EU Directive 2003/30(Biofuels or other renewable fuels for transport) target of 5.75% by the end of 2010. This essay, stimulated by Phil Hunt’s lecture
‘Liquid Biofuels’
in Unit A4,considers how the UK might deliver its commitment whilst respectingsustainability issues, and questions whether this is a fundamentally soundpolicy.WHY NOW?In 1956, a respected geologist, M Hubbert King postulated that annual oilproduction followed a bell-shaped curve. He predicted that peak levels of oilfrom US wells was likely to be achieved in the 1970s; and by the 1990s fromall sources worldwide (Deffeyes, 2005). History has proven the US hypothesis;however, worldwide this peak is believed to have been delayed by crises in1970s which reduced consumption significantly.Recent observations (Staniford, 2007b) indicate the world’s largest supplier of oil - Saudi Arabia – has experienced an 8% decline in production. Plotting datafrom OPEC, Joint Oil Data Initiative, International Energy Agency, EnergyInformation Administration, and Baker Hughes Oil Rigs, Staniford (2007a)interprets this as confirmation that peak oil in Saudi Arabia has been reached.
Fig 1. Millions of barrels of oil per dayFig 2. Production v operational oil rigsshowing decline over 12 months showing threefold increase innumber of rigs in 24 monthsLinda ForbesUnit A4 Essay1
 
Staniford’s interpretation of these graphs is that, despite increasing resourcesbeing directed towards oil production, output continues to decline. Somecommentators to Staniford’s analysis on The Oildrum website suggeststockpiling of supplies may be happening – however, there is no evidence of additional storage capacity being built in the Kingdom’s ports or refineries,according to other contributors.It would, therefore, appear sensible to lessen our reliance on oil-basedsystems, by reducing consumption and developing alternative fuels; and thismay be becoming more urgent. Additional impetus is brought to bear asthreats to strategic oil supplies from geopolitical instability in countries suchas Iran and Iraq increase, and the willingness of Russia to use energy suppliesas a means of achieving its aims becomes evident, for example in Ukraine.Reduction in road transport use will make achievement of the 20% cut in CO
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emissions and 10% substitution by biofuels by 2020 easier to achieve. This,from a political perspective, may be difficult. The recent online petition toDowning Street collected 1.8 million signatures opposing the introduction of road-pricing schemes. Will a hearts-and-minds campaign, and improved publictransport, be successful in encouraging modal shift? Possibly – but this subjectwould need a separate essay, and is not dealt with here.ESTIMATING THE TASKIn 1990, UK road transport was responsible for emitting 109.4 million tonnesof CO
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(DEFRA, 2006), reaching 119.9 million tonnes by 2005. The proposed2020 target implies that emissions will have to reduce to 98 million tonnes;this assumes 20% reduction is required across the board from all sectors.At a more detailed level, information from the DTI’s Digest of UK EnergyTrends (2006) gives figures for road transport energy requirements as:2005Fossil fuel used intransport(thousand tonnes)Calorific value inGJ per tonneEnergy usedPetrol18,73144.7837 TJDERV19,43543.3842 TJFrom this, and assuming 10% renewables target is to take account of lowercalorific values of biofuels, the area required to grow sufficient biomass iscalculated below. For the purposes of this calculation, it is assumed thatbioethanol will displace petrol use, and DERV is replaced by biodiesel.10% targetin TJCalorificvalue in GJper tonne*Biofuelrequirementin tonnesGrowing arearequired inhectares**Bioethanol 83.727.53,045,0001,323,756Biodiesel 84.239.22,147,0001,987,754
* average calorific value taken from Treanton (2004)** winter wheat 2.3t/ha for bioethanol, oilseed rape 1.08t/ha, from DTI’s Appendix 11 (2005)
Linda ForbesUnit A4 Essay2
 
However, as yields for crops can vary significantly depending upon location,season, weather, soil type, drying requirements, transport to processingfacilities, and applications of fertiliser and/or pesticides, the growing arearequirements may also fluctuate substantially.And, while many hectares of land in other countries may lie unused, includingtwenty million in Russia according to Sir Ben Gill (2007), it does notnecessarily follow that the best use is in growing energy crops. Extendedsupply chains, and growing of crops in geopolitically unstable regions,emphasise the need to consider energy security – a current concern with fossilfuels, but one which applies equally to bioenergy.MANUFACTURING CAPACITYTonnages of biodiesel and bioethanol manufactured in member states asreported by EU Energy Directorate (2006) allows comparison between the2020 target calculated above and 2005 actuals.EU Biodiesel tonnageEU Bioethanol tonnage The figures for the UK are low, but increasing, for biodiesel; with bioethanolcapacity lacking completely. Biofuels Corporation Ltd completed its first250,000 tonne biodiesel processing plant at Middlesbrough last year. Its annualproduction, equivalent to some 284 million litres of biodiesel, will be used asa 5% blend (B5) with mineral diesel.The company claims their product offers:
‘… similar power and energy content toUnleaded Low Sulphur Diesel. Advantages include virtually zero sulphur content, zeroaromatic content, flash point of 300°F against 137°F for mineral diesel, significant reductionin particulates (soot) and hydrocarbons, 70% reduction of carbon monoxide emissions indiesel exhausts, non toxic and biodegradable, fully degraded from a waterway environment
Linda ForbesUnit A4 Essay3
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