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Chanos Wine Country Conference

Chanos Wine Country Conference

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Published by: zerohedge on Apr 19, 2013
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07/10/2013

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Wine Country Conference
 April 5, 2013
James ChanosKynikos Associates
China: The Edifice Complex
 
2
The China Way
What we have learned
 –
Guanxi is a way of life
 –
Caveat emptor in acquisitions
 –
Beware reverse merger listings
 –
“Audited” numbers?
 
What goes on in China Inc.
 –
Gaming receivables
 –
Questionable “Other Income”
 –
Property on the side
 –
Copper and steel financing
Foreign technology partnerships
 –
“Absorb and digest”
 
 –
“Re
-
innovate”
 
 –
Undercut partners
Source: shutterstock 
 
3
“The Number” Is Paramount
 
GDP drives economic activity, notvice versa
Countervailing priorities
 –
Set centrally and locally
 –
Stability for Central Government
 –
Vehicle of ambition for local officials
Regional-to-national GDP gapcontinues to grow
 –
Gap of RMB 5.8T in 2012 vs.RMB 2.6T in 2009
 –
“Size of Guangdong’s economy”
1
Capacity overinvestment (2008-2012CAGR)
 –
Cement 12%
 –
Steel 10%
 –
 Autos 18%
“GDP: Killing the Hen to Get the Egg”
 
Source: China Media Project 
Source: “GDP gap in China the size of Guangdong economy”, South
China Morning Post, February 5, 2013

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