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 Te Ope Whakāora
INTO TROUBLED WATERS
A STATE OF THE NATION REPORT FROM THE SALVATION ARMY
 
Authorised and approved by Commissioner Garth McKenzie, Territorial Commander as anofficial publication of the New Zealand Fiji and Tonga Territory of The Salvation Army‘Into Troubled Waters’ was produced by The Salvation Army Social Policy andParliamentary Unit 16b Bakerfield Place Manukau City: Director Major Campbell Roberts,Manager Major Ian Kilgour The Salvation Army Social Policy and Parliamentary Unit would like to thank their community partner, UMC, for their assistance with the production of this report.
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ISBN 978-0-9582975-0-9 (PaPerBack)ISBN 978-0-9582975-1-6 (electroNIc)
 
3
executive Summary 
These are uncertain times and it seems that anyone brave enough to orecast our immediate uture is simply guessing. The Treasury’s economists provide an exampleo this. In December 2007 The Treasury was predicting an unemployment rate in 2010o 3.9%. A year later its orecast o the unemployment rate had risen to 6.4% with anadmission that it could be as high as 7.2%. This illustrates how diicult it is to assess theinancial crisis that now grips the world.In human terms these dierences in the rate o unemployment are signiicant. Thedierence between a rate o 3.9% and 7.2% is the prospect that a urther 75,000 peoplewill be out o work by the end o this year.But these dierences are important in policy terms as well. I policy advisors can misssomething as major as the worst inancial crisis in 70 years, most likely they are missingother important challenges looming on our horizons. For example what is being done abouta growing shortage o aordable housing in Auckland and what will be done to address thegrowing social stress caused by rising unemployment and alling household incomes.While the short-sightedness o economic orecasters can be attributed to human railty,the ailure to learn rom our mistakes is oolishness, and this is the danger here. As NobelLaureate & economist Paul Krugman noted recently in an article in the New York Times;
“The main thing to realise is that for the time being we really are inan alternative universe, in which nothing would be more dangerousthan an attempt by policy makers to play it safe”.
It seems that while our collective assessment o the problems we ace has changed quitedramatically over the past year, the types o thinking and the proposed solutions have not. For example some commentators and politicians would have us believe that tax cuts are as valid apolicy solution in times o economic prosperity as they are in times o economic adversity.Within our present economic crises there is also a singular lack o accountability by those whocaused it or at least allowed it to happen. General Cliton Shaw, The Salvation Army’s worldleader alluded to this in a recent pastoral letter entitled “Money” where he said, We hear aboutthe worldwide ‘credit crunch’, caused by lenders ailing to be sel-restrained when lending toover-keen borrowers who could not aord the repayments. We hear about governments, whooten reuse to spend a ew millions on good causes or human need, suddenly being able tospend billions to prop up ailing inancial institutions and large businesses.For most o us it is all baling, but also deeply disturbing. Ordinary people are losingtheir jobs, and some are in danger o losing their homes. Despite this, we do not hear o 
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