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Gerd's Guide to Disruption 2013

Gerd's Guide to Disruption 2013

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Three posts on the topic of disruption: "We are entering an era of information tsunamis: mind-boggling global data torrents , all-pervasive
social-local-mobile (SoLoMo) connectivity, widespread ‘wikilikean’ transparency expectations (both
B2C as well as B2B), rapid changes in interface technologies (AR, gestures, voice-control, nanotechnologies,
bionics, AI etc), the hyper-realtime speed of information and media, and of abundant
consumer choice in pretty much every sector of commerce and business. ..."
Three posts on the topic of disruption: "We are entering an era of information tsunamis: mind-boggling global data torrents , all-pervasive
social-local-mobile (SoLoMo) connectivity, widespread ‘wikilikean’ transparency expectations (both
B2C as well as B2B), rapid changes in interface technologies (AR, gestures, voice-control, nanotechnologies,
bionics, AI etc), the hyper-realtime speed of information and media, and of abundant
consumer choice in pretty much every sector of commerce and business. ..."

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Categories:Types, Business/Law
Published by: Futurist Gerd Leonhard on Apr 26, 2013
Copyright:Attribution Non-commercial

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08/21/2013

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Gerd’s Guide to Disruption
Part 1:
The Next 5 Years
Part 2:
The Cashless Society, 3D Printers and Piracy, Mobiledevices as External Brains ...and more
Part 3:
Transition Traumas, Brands with Purpose,Interdependence not Independence
 
PART 1
Disruption - The Next 5Year s
http://www.futuristgerd.com/gerds-guide-to-disruption-the-next-5-years-part-1/
-
March 5, 2013
Greetings everyone, on the occasion of the launch of my new siteI have decided to resume somemore serious blogging activities, at least once every week. I kind of stopped doing this 3 years ago(due to too many speaking gigs and the rise of fast and easy content curation tools such as Twitter and Tumblr), and I really feel like there’s something missing here, so… stay tuned (via RSS?) for my weekly excursions.We are entering an era of information tsunamis: mind-boggling global data torrents , all-pervasivesocial-local-mobile(SoLoMo)connectivity, widespread ‘wikilikean’ transparency expectations (bothB2C as well as B2B), rapid changes in interface technologies (AR, gestures, voice-control, nano-technologies, bionics, AI etc), the hyper-realtime speed of information and media, and of abundantconsumer choice in pretty much every sector of commerce and business.Here are the first 7 trends for your consideration:1) The end of offline – at least in the technical meaning of that word – is near. We are becoming asociety of always-on, hyper-social and always-findable humans – and this is both very good andvery bad. As Sophocles once mentioned to me back when I was an arduous student of greek:
Nothing vast enters the lives of mortals without a curse
“.
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Being Offline is clearly becoming the new luxury and will become a highly cherished attainment. De-teching, un-plugging and all kinds of ‘digital detox’ remedies will be widespread but sadly for most of us will only bring occasional reprieve from ‘being on the grid’. A new sense of responsibility,and taking care of one-self, will need to develop so that we can learn to cope with information andconnectivity overload – much like television or the telephone in the past. But careful: SoLoMotechnologies are just so much more addictive:)2) The global consumerization of IT represents ahugely impactful trend. Consumers are alreadystarting to lead (rather than follow) enterprises inthe use of technology such as apps and tablets.‘Shadow-IT’ is becoming a big issue asprofessionals are bringing their own devices towork (BYOD), and are now expecting their owncompany’s technology and products to be as fastand easy-to-use as whatever else they are using,privately.3) A true revolution in data-input methods isimminent: we are moving from GUI (graphic user interfaces) to NUI (natural user interfaces), from mouse & keyboard to speech, gesture- and yes,eventhought-controlleddevices or what IBM calls ‘cognitive computing‘. I think that very few computing devices will use ‘traditional’ means of input in less than 10 years. As far as generalcommunications, reading and browsing, and to a large extend shopping and e-commerce isconcerned, mobile devices, smart-phones and tablets are already taking over from desktop andlaptop computers – and we can expect that trend to only accelerate. Internet access will be like air or water (i.e. taken for granted but still paid-for ;) and not-for-work computing will shift almostentirely to mobile devices and the mobile Internet. Almost all content will be consumed on mobiledevices, first, and multi-platform use of media becomes the global standard.4) Almost all business – including those in thehereto lesser-impacted B2B sectors such asbanking, energy and raw materials – will becomesocially-driven (especially those based on digitalproducts). Peer to peer recommendations,ratings, endorsements and all kinds of Likeonomicsare already widespread but willessentially replace CRM in the near future; thesame goes for hiring and general HR needs(witness the rise of LinkedIn as a global HRresources pretty much eliminates the need for traditional headhunters). Since most social business is essentially data- , sharing- and permission-driven (sorry to use that buzz phrase again)Data is indeed becoming the new oil. The global andradical empowerment of ‘the people formerly known as consumers’via cheap, powerful andubiquitous SoLoMo technologies will be a huge game changer (yes, both an opportunity andthreat) – and this will really get cooking when the other 3 Billion in BRICs and CIVETS are comingonline. You thought it was confusing now – just give it another 2 years.5) Very very huge gigantic enormous big data, everywhere. Data levels, depth and sheer frequency will reach previously unimaginable pace and proportions, and anyone / anything havingto do with data-mining and management will be in very high demand (watch for theusual snake-oil
2
 
vendorscreeping up like wildfire, as well). The consequence: curation, context, relevance,timeliness and overall sense & meaning-making as well as totally intuitive pattern recognition (i.e.the human part of the data deluge) will become infinitely more important than mere access to lotsof information, content or data: meaning will actually trump noise.6) In the dawning knowledge- and experience society, wearequicklyshifting from downloads to flows, and from stuff to bits,both in terms of technology aswell as in terms of our user behavior and actual consumption habits. Information isno longer (just) stored and kept for later, rather, it’s accessed and filtered andsifted, when and where and how it’s needed, in realtime, real-place, real-life. Technology will also move from relying on search,files and pages to reading, understanding and enabling flows andstreams (cloud, social, local, mobile). Read more aboutthis topic on Kevin Kelly’s Google+.7) The Internet of Things, and pervasive machine-to-machineconnectivity is becoming very real, very fast. Wireless networks,RFIDs and NFC technologies will seamlessly and ubiquitouslyconnect people (if not their actual brains than their devices) tothings to machines, and vice versa, and artificial intelligence and ultra-smart electronic agents willglue all this together. Ericsson estimates that 55 Billion devices will be connected in 2015 –obviously this will have huge privacy andethical implications, as well. Watch these movies:“Connected”by Tiffany Shlain, “Robot & Fr ank” and ‘The Joneses”to get a very real glimpse of  these trends. The Internet is gradually becoming an extension of our brains; and mobile devicesare already our external brains. Is the next stop the actual integration of the Internet in our bodies(Iris implants etc), cyborgs after that… singularity, transhumanism? Not sure what to think of that,really, but…Ray Kurzweil is ready to tell you.
 
PART 2
The Cashless Society, 3D Printers and Piracy,Mobile Devicesas ExternalBrains …and more
http://www.futuristgerd.com/gerds-guide-to-disruption-part-2-the-cashless-society-3d-piracy-mobile-devices-as-external-brains-and-more/
-
March 12, 2013
Before I dive in, this is a key point to remember: because of globaltechnology-fueled empowerment (hopefullynot enslavement;) and theaccelerating trend to a true ‘global village‘ (see my XMedia Basel slideson this,here) sudden and merciless disruption can now arise from anyplace with high speed Internet access (seewaze versus GarminandNavteq) as education and learning goes digital, talent arises fromeverywhere and venture capitalists finally go global (not sure that’s sucha good thing, though)
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