Trading Use

The momentum indicator identifies when the price is moving upwards or downwards, and also by how much the price is moving upwards or downwards. When the momentum indicator is above 0 (zero), the price has upwards momentum, and when the momentum indicator is below 0 (zero) the price has downwards momentum. The momentum indicator can be used on its own, or as part of a larger trading system. If the Momentum indicator reaches extremely high or low values (relative to its historical values), you should assume a continuation of the current trend. For example, if the Momentum indicator reaches extremely high values and then turns down, you should assume prices will probably go still higher. In either case, only trade after prices confirm the signal generated by the indicator (e.g., if prices peak and turn down, wait for prices to begin to fall before selling).

****Parabolic SAR should only be employed in trending markets only. Ignore signals while price is ranging (identified by the fluctuations around the MA).
After price respects MA line go long when candle crosses the top stop dot. the MA should be up ward cut position when the candle crosses the bottom stop dot. Note the The first 3 dots formation and decide accordingly

Bollinger band If candles hugs one band then the trend is strong in the direction When the market is ranging Bollinger bounce will occur When the band narrows it Is a indication that market will take a sharp break in one direction So, who makes all the money? It is normally the professional commodity traders and money managers that consistently make money year after year. Also, amateur commodity traders who make money tend to trade for a long time maybe 30 years. In that time, this trader has probably taken money from hundreds of commodity investors along the way.

Technical Breakout
A technical breakout is when the price of a stock or index closes above a price that had been resistance. Use trend line horrizantal and slope

Trading Signals Breakouts are stronger signals when confirmed by volume. The best way to do this is to wait for the market to touch an upward sloping trendline and do not buy until the market trades above the high of the day that touched the trendline. I A close below the trendline might be signaling a change in trend or at least a weakening trend. Before changing trend there will be a slow down or weakening trend signal
For bullish divergence in MACD take low of troughs For beariish divergence in MACD take High of Peaks Read that 10 times

MACD Divergences should be taken with caution. Bearish divergences are

commonplace in a strong uptrend, while bullish divergences occur often in a strong downtrend. Yes, you read that right. Uptrends often start with a strong advance that produces a surge in upside momentum (MACD). Even though the uptrend continues, it continues at a slower pace that causes the MACD to decline from its highs. Upside momentum may not be as strong, but upside momentum is still outpacing downside momentum as long as the MACD Line is above zero. The opposite occurs at the beginning of a strong downtrend.

Chart analysis USE RSI , ROC, Bolinger & volume,MACD,MACD histologram Look for trend first if its obvious follow it If RSI crosses well over 70 or 30 it is indication of trend Roc below and towards 0 & RSI going away from 30 = Buy Roc Above and towards 0 & RSI returning from 70 = Sell If the ROC line continuously stay on one side then it is in a trend

 In Rsi when ever it crosses 70 you can sell when it touches 30 buy** ROC well below 0 indicates down trend and above 0 up trend. When selling, Roc must be above and downwards and close to 0.if ROC is well above 0 dont sell If the trend indication is up do not sell even in 70 vice versa Before getting the signal Note the Roc position when Rsi at 70 or 30 Check fibnocci retracement for targets If successive peaks and trughs touch border lines it indicates trending Increased volume in peak and trughs indicate breakout direction The trend is strong in the side of top or bottom band which ever the candles hug
Also, Crude oil is directly priced in dollars. Thus a weaker dollar means higher crude oil prices. if Dollar loses value, Gold will move Up.

US dollar value increases US dollar value increases Base metal inventory low Unemployment data

Confirmed Crude oil prices will go down Confirmed Gold prices will Go down Rate will go down -ve for base metals,+ve for Gold and silver

SELL AT THE PEAK -NEVER BUY BUY AT THE lOW

Avoid taking different positions in Crude And copper They tend behave in same manner Mistake Squared up the Sell Copper Cont early that is after 2Rs down in the morning around 12 pm. But it started to fall after 3.15pm Timing is important Keeping many commodities will lead to confusion Dont Mind about minor losses NG Sell an example Wait up to 4 pm for some expected outputs

USD value increses USD value decresess USJobless data increases US job less data decreases Oil supply reduces/Oil demand increses Oil supply increases /Oil demand reduces

Crude oil price falls Crude oil price raises Gold price increses Gold price Decreses Crude price increases Conflicts in west asia, Iran nuclear program Investment in gold increses

Opec increases production, Oil inventories high

Lessons 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. Never do not buy at the Peak***buy only after it stabilised Use stop loss very carefully 95% triggers If buy and sell a Same lot in different months you can use the same margin (Hedging) HEDGING SHOULD BE DONE AT The same time and best in the medium price. Positions are taken from the exercise price on the first day To average a raising item buy when the level lowers below the previous buy price**opposite in sell Do not mind sharkhan suggestions when it is against the trend he said copper june will fall to 422 but it went to 440 ( it went below 438.4app in the middle)Do not panic and wait for some time small fluctuation can reverse

8. 9.

How to Trade Commodities with Trendlines Once you identify a trend in a market and draw an accurate trendline, you want to look for buy opportunities in an uptrend and sell opportunities in a downtrend. The best trade is to wait for a pullback to the trendline and enter when the market touches the trendline. It is often a good idea to get confirmation that the market is continuing to move back in the direction of the trend before you place a trade. The best way to do this is to wait for the market to touch an upward sloping trendline and do not buy until the market trades above the high of the day that touched the trendline. I A close below the trendline might be signaling a change in trend or at least a weakening trend.

Before changing trend there will be a slow down or weakening trend signal
Dont trade in the opening hours Decide the trend If down Sell at the high price possible If up buy at the low If sell call is given and prices are raising wait for the peak and sell while coming down(crude buy given by bullish and sell given by ad india and sharekhan crude 4550 to 4597 to 4502) that may become a nice trade

**trade only when the price trades away from average line If open= High sell If open = Low buy If ATP<open = sell IF ATP >open = Buy ** In a strong uptrend, price should find support and inflect off the 38.2% retracement of the swing, but if not, it would be expected to find support at the 50.0% (one-half) retracement. A deeper retracement would take price to the 61.8% retracement, but if price does not find support and reverse off any of these levels, it would generally be a good idea to take your stop-loss and prepare for the possibility of a market reversal.

3.30-4.30 up time

Technical Breakout
A technical breakout is when the price of a stock or index closes above a price that had been resistance. Only take signals in the direction of the trend.

Up-trend: go long if Momentum turns upwards when below zero. Down-trend: go short if Momentum turns downward when above zero.

Trend lines are also drawn on the Momentum indicator. A break in the trend line often occurs in advance of a similar break on the price chart. Take profits on divergences and trend line breaks.

1. Avoid trading in the morning hours that is before 5pm. All major changes took place only in the evening 2. Never buy at or near peak sell instead -less risky. Sell when it start moving down. 3. Buy at the lowest peak. Even if it goes down it will come up. 4. Do not mind minor direction changes wait 5. Be sure with the trend. Nobody can be 100% correct in predicting trends. 6. Hedging is suitable only when the prices are fluctuating reasonably . the profit should be taken on the same day.be ready to cut a trailing contract to book profit when the trend is clear. 7. Aim for low profit the loss will be minimum too. 8. Keep news updates 9. Avoid taking different positions in Crude And copper They tend behave in same manner in general 10. Keeping many commodities will lead to confusion ***Reason for todays loss -Tried to keep the Buy contract against the trend.(crude on 30th May)

Sell the hedging at profit if you think that is the peak even in the worst case the loss will be lesser than the alternate.

Bollinger Band and rate of change will work together good checked-visu Bollinger band must contract (take the peak parallel to this point and its previous peak)at the same time rate of change should be divergence or convergence