BAYES THEOREM PROBABILITY MODEL

Sample space : Set of all possible outcomes. Collection of events : Subsets of a sample space, contain only certain outcomes that are of interest. Complement of a set E denoted as (nor) Intersection symbolized as (and) Union symbolized as (or) Permutation : Technique to count the number of ordered/distinguished arrangement, Combination : Technique to count the number of ways of dividing n objects into two distinct groups the group of size k and the group of size ( that is left behind. ( ) If the n objects to be divided into distinct group ( ) Theorem is derived from definition of conditional probability. | |

C H

Using the consequences at probability axioms | | | | |

A P T E R 1
Distributive laws

PROBABILITY MODEL USES SIMPLE ALGEBRA OF SET

Commutative law

Associative laws

de Morgans law

INTRODUCTION

C
PROBABILITY AXIOMS
For any event E,

H A

Experiment : Doing/observing scenarioes. Outcomes : Results of a particular experiment. Probability study : study a scenario/experiment which involves chances.

If and are two defined eventsand the intersection of these events produces an empty set, then,

P T

CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY
When event E given F : | Concept : Knowing the occurrence of a certain events leads to reevaluation of our current knowledge/belief. When events E and F independent :

Fulfill the axioms

E R

If If

, then , then

If If

, then for ) , and so, |

then(