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Daily Agri Report, April 27

Daily Agri Report, April 27

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Published by Angel Broking
27th April, 2013
27th April, 2013

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Published by: Angel Broking on Apr 29, 2013
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Commodities Daily Report
 
Agricultural Commodities
Saturday| April 27, 2013www.angelcommodities.com
 
Content 
News & Market HighlightsChanaSugarOilseed ComplexSpices ComplexKapas/Cotton 
Angel Commodities Broking Pvt. Ltd.
Registered Office: G-1, Ackruti Trade Centre, Rd. No. 7, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093.Corporate Office: 6th Floor, Ackruti Star, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093. Tel: (022) 2921 2000MCX Member ID: 12685 / FMC Regn No: MCX / TCM / CORP / 0037 NCDEX: Member ID 00220 / FMC Regn No: NCDEX / TCM / CORP / 0302
Disclaimer:
The information and opinions contained in the document have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. The company does not warrant its accuracy, completeness andcorrectness. The document is not, and should not be construed as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodities. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published, in whole or in
part, by any recipient hereof for any purpose without prior permission from “Angel Commodities Broking (P) Ltd”. Your feedback is appreciated on
Research Team
Vedika Narvekar - Sr. Research Analyst Anuj Choudhary - Research Analystvedika.narvekar@angelbroking.com anuj.choudhary@angelbroking.com(022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6130 (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6132
 
 
Commodities Daily Report
 
Agricultural Commodities
Saturday| April 27, 2013www.angelcommodities.com
 
Market Highlights
 
(% change)
 
as on April 26, 2013
 
Last Prev. day WoW MoM YoY
Sensex
19287 -0.62 1.42 3.11 12.59
Nifty
5871 -0.76 1.53 4.07 13.15
INR/$
54.38 0.51 0.65 -0.18 3.76
Nymex Crude Oil - $/bbl
93 -0.68 5.67 -3.47 -11.05
Comex Gold - $/oz
1454 -0.56 4.18 -8.91 -12.41
.Source: Reuters
Crop protection products set to become dearer
Farmers need to brace themselves for a steep hike of pesticides andother crop protection products in the ensuing kharif season. TheAssociation of Pesticides Manufacturers, representing the industry,expects the hike to be between five and 30 per cent across all products,including fungicides and weedicides. The industry feels that it has to passon to the farmers the increase in prices of certain raw chemicals, mostlyimported from China. "The hike will be most in the weedicides segment,which has shown the maximum growth in the crop protection market.Today weedicides have a share of almost 30 per cent in the entire Rs
10,000 crore crop protection market," V.K. Garg, the association’s vice
-president, said.
Source: Business Line) 
Sugar output may exceed demand for three years
Sugar output in India will likely exceed the annual consumption of 22million tones at least untol the marketing year through Sept 2016, foodminister KV Thomas said on Friday. Sugar production has hit 23 milliontones so far in the current year & is forecast to touch 24.6 million tonescompared with 26.3 million tones in 2011-12
. (Source: Financial express)
Brazil 2012/13 corn crop seen at record 78.4 mln T - Safras
Brazilian farmers are expected to harvest a record 78.42 million tonnesof corn in 2012/13, up from 72.70 million tonnes in its last crop, localforecaster Safras e Mercado said in a report on Friday. Safras cornanalyst Paulo Molinari said the latest forecast was well above thecompany's initial outlook of 68.03 million tonnes, released in 2012. "Theperformance could have been even better still if the north and northeasthad not had a severe drought. These regions were initially expected toharvest 5.94 million tonnes, which should now drop to 3.82 million,"Molinari said. The unexpected increase in the forecast has come largelyfrom widespread planting of the winter, or second, corn crop, whichstarts planting in January through March after the summer soy and corncrops are harvested. Brazil's corn production and exports have surged inthe past few years along with the price of the grain, used widely inprocessed foods and livestock feeds.
 
Source: Reuters)
 
Cotton futures post 4th straight weekly loss on investor selloff 
ICE cotton rose on Friday, after finding technical support and as limitedmill buying buoyed prices, though the gains were not enough to preventfiber from registering a fourth straight weekly loss. The most-active Julycotton contract on ICE Futures U.S. CTN3 gained 1.02 cent, or 1.2percent, to settle at 84.25 cents per pound. A fall to technical support inthe range of 82 cents to 82.50 cents earlier this week prompted buying,dealers said. The day's gains came even as the rest of the ThomsonReuters-Jefferies CRB .TRJCRB index, a global commodities benchmark,closed lower. "We're short-term oversold, and the cotton exports werepretty good," said Nick Gentile, senior partner of commodity tradingconsultancy Atlantic Capital Advisors. U.S. weekly export data, whichshowed an increase from the previous week, was seen as solid bytraders. Prices also felt support from limited mill buying that came in onprice dips, dealers said."They're buying on just a scale-down basis," saidGentile.
Source: Reuters)
 
News in brief 
Met predicts normal monsoon
The South-West monsoon is most likely to be normal, the IndiaMeteorological Department said in its initial forecast on Friday. It has,however, not given any region-wise prognosis, which many have soughtin the light of other recent forecasts suggesting deficient rains inparticular in the southern States. Quantitatively, the average rainfall isexpected to be 98 per cent of the normal long period average (LPA) of 89cm during the four-month season starting June 1. LPA is the average of seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole from 1951 to 2000. Lastyear, the monsoon was below normal at 92 per cent of LPA (81.9 cm),though the forecast was 99 per cent. The first official forecast by IMDdoes not talk of the onset of monsoon; nor does it estimate the spatialand temporal rain distribution for the season
. (Source: Business Line)
 Cotton Corpn begins unloading its inventory
The Cotton Corporation of India began selling its stocks built throughmarket intervention operations as part of the Government efforts to hold
the natural fibre’s price line.
According to traders, with CCI, someexporters were also selling their stocks but ginners were holding theirlong position due to lower arrivals. CCI has started selling its stocks fromFriday through e-auction. It offered to sell 25,000 bales. Out of which,18,000 bales were from Andhra Pradesh, 2,500 bales from Maharashtra,4,000 bales from Karnataka and 500 from Orissa. CCI may sell morecotton in coming days through e-auction. According to trade sources, CCImay dispose of around 2,50,000 bales in first round. However, the salefailed to have any impact as prices remained unchanged on the back of normal demand and limited arrival. Gujarat Sankar-6 cotton was tradedon Rs 37,500-37,700 for a candy of 356 kg, V 797 cotton A grade wasoffered at Rs 28,300-28,600.
Source: Business Line)
Global Maize crop to rise 10%
The International grains council (IGC) said that global maize production isexpected to rise by 10% in 2013-14 to a record 939 Million tonesrestoring stocks to above average levels. Global wheat production isforecast to rise more modestly by around 4% to 680 mt, the IGC said in amonthly report. The IGC said global maize stocks were expected to riseby 27 mt to 143 mt by the end of the 2013-14 season
.( Source: Business Line)
Drought saps sugar production in TN
 
Drought conditions across Tamil Nadu have hit sugarcane output andsugar recovery in the current season ending September. Sugarregistrations for the coming season indicate a further drop in output nextyear. Electricity shortage and ground water depletion due to droughthave contributed to the lack of enthusiasm for the nearly year-long crop.Tamil Nadu, for the first time, could go without the second season
sugarcane crushing or maybe a ‘truncated’
 
season. Sugarcane crushingrecommences in mid-July after the peak summer and goes on up toSeptember during the special season, said experts.
(Source Business Line)
For now, Govt will not hike import duty on rubber
The Centre has decided against increasing customs duty on naturalrubber imports for now. This stance should come as a relief for thedomestic tyre manufacturers who had been urging Finance Minister P.Chidambaram to retain the current import duty structure on naturalrubber imports. Currently, import duty on natural rubber is pegged at 20per cent or Rs 20 a kg, whichever is lower. Since the second half of December 2012 and early January this year, the pitch was getting louderfor review of import duty on natural rubber. Pressure was also mountedon the Finance Ministry to hike the specific duty component of importduty on natural rubber. The Government was faced with the opposingdemands made by the growers and domestic tyre manufacturers.
Source:Business Line)
 
 
 
Commodities Daily Report
 
Agricultural Commodities
Saturday| April 27, 2013www.angelcommodities.com
 
Market Highlights
 
as on April 26, 2013
 
% change
Unit Last Prev day WoW MoM YoY
Chana Spot - NCDEX(Delhi)
Rs/qtl 3477 0.17 -3.69 5.35 -4.75
Chana- NCDEXApr'13 Futures
Rs/qtl 3518 0.49 -2.63 4.80 -6.04
Source: Reuters
Technical Chart - Chana
 
NCDEX May contract
Source: Telequote
 
Technical Outlook
 
valid for Apr 27, 2013
 
Contract Unit Support ResistanceChana May Futures
Rs./qtl 3460-3485 3540-3580
Chana
After declining for the last five sessions, Chana prices recovered fromlower levels yesterday on account of short coverings. Higher arrivals of the new crop have mounted pressure on the prices. Demand fromstockists remained dull. However, reports of lower yield in MP due tounseasonal rains supported prices at lower levels. The spot as well as theFutures settled 0.17% and 0.49% higher on Friday.Chana prices have recovered significantly in the past couple of weeks asstockists have started building inventories to meet the demand for theentire season. Concerns over the yield in Madhya Pradesh, the largestchana producing state, due to unfavorable weather conditions was alsosupporting an upside in the prices.However, higher supplies of the new crop from the major producingstates such as Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Maharashtra is seencapping sharp gains in the physical markets.
Demand supply scenario
Higher returns earned in 2012, coupled with a hike in minimum supportprices (MSP), have helped expand overall acreage in 2012-13 season. TheCentre has hiked the MSP by 14 per cent to Rs 3,200 a quintal for chanaand as part of its strategy to encourage farmers to grow more pulses toreduce import dependence.Chana sowing in the current season is 5.65% higher at 95.17 lakh hacompared to previous year. Acreage is up in Rajasthan, Maharashtra, MPand AP at 15.7 lakh ha, 12.53 lakh ha, 32.99 lakh ha and 7.33 lakh harespectively.According to second advance Estimates released on 8
th
Feb 2013, Totalpulses output for 2012-13 season has been pegged at 17.58 mn tn, down3.3% compared to previous year. The target for 2012-13 pulses cropoutput was set at 18.24 million tonne during the year. However, droughtconditions have hampered kharif pulses output, which has been onlypartially offset by Rabi pulses output, especially chana.Out of the total pulses output, kharif output is estimated at 23% lower at5.48 mn tn while rabi pulses output is pegged 8.72% higher at 12.09 mntn compared with the final estimates of 2011-12.There has been a sharp increase in the chana output estimates on theback of higher acreage and good yield. Chana output is expected tobreach its 2010-11 record of 8.2 mn tn and is estimated at 8.57 mn tn for2012-13. In its first advance estimates chana output was pegged at 7.9mn tn. However, erratic weather in M.P. may lower the yield.Assocham estimates, 21 mn tn of pulses demand in 2012-13 and is likelyto reach at 21.42 mn tn in 2013-14 and 21.91 MT in 2014-15. (Source:Agriwatch).
Trade Scenario
According to IBIS, imports of chana in the month of February declined to0.46 lakh metric tonnes compared to 2.31 lakh metric tonnes during theprevious month.India imports Chana mainly from Australia and Canada and higheravailability in these countries at comparatively cheaper rates is seenboosting imports of Chana to meet the domestic shortfall.In Australia, total chickpea production in 2012
 –
13 is estimated to haveincreased to a record 713000 tones as compared with 485000.
Outlook
Chana is expected to decline and trade with a negative bias today asincreasing arrivals of the new crop may pressurize prices. However,improvement in demand from stockists may restrict a major downside.Overall output in the current season is comparatively higher and thus nomajor upside is expected over a medium term.

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