.

1 - - Landahl
) Landahl

w(n) (56)
(57).
: Directions in mathematical psychology II.AMM
1976,pp153-1
) /
.. (57) ,

(learning curve)
) ,
;
: .
(Fractals)- 2002

Anatol Rapoport
Landahl .
, ,
, ,
.
Landahl
,
c ,
w
.
b

 . 2 - - Landahl

. ,
(c-Ew)
. , n ,
:
(n)=Ec(0)-Ew(0)+bc+w+X
c , w
( : n=c+w), b,
.
:

pw(n)=P[(n)<0]=P[X<Ew(0)-Ec(0)-bc-w]=P[X<Ew(0)Ec(0)-bn+(b-)w]. (1)
n , pw(n)

dw
dw

dn . pw(n)= dn (2).
, (1)
, w(n),
, n.

k k x
(
)
=

f
x
e , k
O Landahl
2
(Laplacian), .
(2)
b> :
c(0)=Ew(0) w(0)=0.
:

 . 3 - - Landahl
pw(n)=P[X<Ew(0)-Ec(0)-bn+(b-)w]=F[Ew(0)-Ec(0)-bn+(b-)w],
F .
:
bn + ( b ) w

pw(n)=

k k x
e dx
,
2

bn+(b-)w<0

b > b > 0
bn > (b ) w bn + (b ) w < 0 ), :
( n > w > 0

pw(n)=
bn+(b )w

k
1
ekxdx =
2
2

bn+(b )w

1
kekxdx = ekbn+(b )kw lim ekx =
x

1
ekbn+(b )kw , > 0
2
pw(n)
/2. f(x)
Landahl, ,
: f(x)>0 , x, >0
+

1
k
f ( x ) = 1 e k x dx = 1 ( ke kx dx + ke kx dx ) =
2
2 0

) (

1
1
1 lim e kx + 1 lim e kx = 2 = 1
x +
x

2
2
1, >0.

 . 4 - - Landahl
/2.
Landahl /2 /2
:

f ( x) =

k k x
e , .
2

1 bkn + ( b ) kw
.
pw(n)= 2 e
:

dw
=
pw(n)=
dn

1
dw 1
= ebkn+(b )kw = ebkne(b )kw 2e(b )kwdw = ebkndn
2
dn 2

2e

dw = e

( b ) kw

bkn

ek (b )w ekbn
=
+c
dn 2
(b )k kb

c
.
:

 . 5 - - Landahl

w(n) = 0 n = w = 0

c=

2
1
2
1
=
+ c c =
+
(b )k kb
(b )k kb

2b + b
b
c =
kb(b )
kb(b )

2ekb(b)w ekbn b+
2ekb(b)w ekbn b+
=

=
+

(b)k kb kb(b) (b)k kb kb(b)

2bekb(b)w =(b)ekbn +b+ ln2bekb(b)w =ln(b)ekbn +b+
ln2b+lnek(b)w =ln(b)ekbn +b+ ln2bk(b)w=ln(b)ekbn +b+
k(b)w=ln2bln(b)ekbn +b+ k(b)w=ln

w=

1
2b
ln
,
k(b) (b)ekbn +b+

w=

1
2b
ln
k(b) (b)ekbn +2b(b)

2b

(b)ekbn +b+

b+ =2b(b) ,

w(n) (56) .

 . 6 - - Landahl
Rapoport =0

dc
pc= dn

pc

dpc
:
dn = bpc(1-pc), b=kb.
c(n).
:

dpc
dpc
dpc
= b' pc(1 pc ) = kbpc(1 pc )
= kbdn
= kbdn
dn
pc(1 pc )
pc(1 pc)
1
1
1
1
+
=

+
dp
kb
dn
dp
pc 1 pc c pc c 1 pc dpc = kbdn
p
p
p
ln pc ln(1 pc) = kbn +a ln c = kbn+a c = ekbn+a c = Aekbn
1 pc
1 pc
1 pc
Aekbn
pc = (1 pc )Ae pc(1+ Ae ) = Ae pc =
1+ Aekbn
kbn

kbn

kbn

dc dc Aekbn
Aekbn
Aekbn
dc =
pc = =
dn dc =
dn
kbn
kbn
kbn
dn dn 1+ Ae
1+ Ae
1+ Ae
1 (1+ Aekbn)'
1
1
kbn
kbn
=

=
+

=
+
dc
dn
dc
Ae
dn
c
n
Ae
[ln(1
)]'
(
)
ln(1
)+B (3)
kb 1+Aekbn
kb
kb

 . 7 - - Landahl

0=

c(0)=0 , :

1
1
ln(1 + A) + B B = ln(1 + A) (3) :
kb
kb

1
1 1 + Aekbn
kbn
c(n) = ( ln(1 + Ae ) ln(1 + A) ) c(n) = ln
1+ A
kb
kb

, pc
,
, ()
, .
:
pc
,

, (),
!

 . 8 - - Landahl

, s
.
, .
1)

 . 9 - - Landahl

,

2) :


.
.
, ( )
,
.
3) :
,

,

4) :
.
,
. ,
,
, .. 100m, ,
500gr .
5)

 . 10 - - Landahl
,
. , ,
120 .
2-3 ,
580
.
6)
0 , ,
,
. ,
( )

,
,
( )

!
, .
,

.

 . 11 - - Landahl

,
.
.. 80
.

, ,
.( 0
!) xn
=

780,

,
.. 88, ,
.
,
() , ()
.
88 ,
80 .

, .
, 45
.

: 10
()

 . 12 - - Landahl
18 ().

.

,
.
:

dx
= x(B x)
dt

x (t ) =

B
1 + ke t

(
, ).

dpc
= b' pc (1 pc )
dn

 . 13 - - Landahl
pc ,
-,
() Landahl
.

,
,
,
.
(learning curve)
.
)
:
(
, ),
. ,

, .
, ,
.
. ,
,
.

 . 14 - - Landahl

, .

.

, .
,
,

..

,
.
,
.
, ,
. , . ,

.
, , = 3,57
.

 . 15 - - Landahl

:
. ,
= 3,57 .
Feigenbaum.
= 4,67, :


,
4,67 .
Feingenbaum . ,
,
. ,
. , ,
Feingenbaum
!

 . 16 - - Landahl

:
1<<=3 . (
)
3<_3,57
.
3,57<<4,0

 . 17 - - Landahl