What is Brainstorming?

Madison Avenue advertising executive, Alex Osborn, developed the original approach to brainstorming and published it in his 1953 book, "Applied Imagination." Since then, researchers have made many improvements to his original technique. The approach described here takes this research into account, so it's subtly different from Osborn's approach. Brainstorming combines a relaxed, informal approach to problem solving with lateral thinking. It encourages people to come up with thoughts and ideas that can, at first, seem a bit crazy. Some of these ideas can be crafted into original, creative solutions to a problem, while others can spark even more ideas. This helps to get people unstuck by "jolting" them out of their normal ways of thinking. Therefore, during brainstorming sessions, people should avoid criticizing or rewarding ideas. You're trying to open up possibilities and break down incorrect assumptions about the problem's limits. Judgment and analysis at this stage stunts idea generation and limit creativity. Evaluate ideas at the end of the brainstorming session this is the time to explore solutions further, using conventional approaches.

Why Use Brainstorming?

Conventional group problem solving can often be undermined by unhelpful group behavior. And while it's important to start with a structured, analytical processwhen solving problems, this can lead a group to develop limited and unimaginative ideas.

By contrast, brainstorming provides a free and open environment that encourages everyone to participate. Quirky ideas are welcomed and built upon, and all participants are encouraged to contribute fully, helping them develop a rich array of creative solutions. When used during problem solving, brainstorming brings team members' diverse experience into play. It increases the richness of ideas explored, which means that you can often find better solutions to the problems that you face. It can also help you get buy-in from team members for the solution chosen after all, they're likely to be more committed to an approach if they were involved in developing it. What's more, because brainstorming is fun, it helps team members bond, as they solve problems in a positive, rewarding environment. While brainstorming can be effective, it's important to approach it with an open mind and a spirit of non-judgment. If you don't do this, people "clam up," the number and quality of ideas plummets, and morale can suffer.

Individual Brainstorming
While group brainstorming is often more effective at generating ideas than normal group problem solving, several studies have shown that individual brainstorming produces more and often better ideas than group brainstorming. This can occur because groups aren't always strict in following the rules of brainstorming, and bad behaviors creep in. Mostly, though, this happens because people pay so much attention to other people that they don't generate ideas of their own or they forget these ideas while they wait for their turn to speak. This is called "blocking." When you brainstorm on your own, you don't have to worry about other people's egos or opinions, and you can be freer and more creative. For example, you might find that an idea

you'd hesitate to bring up in a group develops into something special when you explore it on your own. However, you may not develop ideas as fully when you brainstorm on your own, because you don't have the wide experience of other group members to draw on.

Tip: To get the most out of your individual brainstorming session, choose a comfortable place to sit and think. Minimize distractions so that you can focus on the problem at hand, and consider using Mind Maps to arrange and develop ideas.

Individual brainstorming is most effective when you need to solve a simple problem, generate a list of ideas, or focus on a broad issue. Group brainstorming is often more effective for solving complex problems. Group Brainstorming With group brainstorming, you can take advantage of the full experience and creativity of all team members. When one member gets stuck with an idea, another member's creativity and experience can take the idea to the next stage. You can develop ideas in greater depth with group brainstorming than you can with individual brainstorming. Another advantage of group brainstorming is that it helps everyone feel that they've contributed to the solution, and it reminds people that others have creative ideas to offer. Brainstorming is also fun, so it can be great for team building!

Group brainstorming can be risky for individuals. Unusual suggestions may appear to lack value at first sight this is where you need to chair sessions tightly, so that the group doesn't crush these ideas and stifle creativity. Where possible, brainstorming participants should come from a wide range of disciplines. This cross-section of experience can make the session more creative. However, don't make the group too big: as with other types of teamwork, groups of five to seven people are usually most effective. How to Use the Tool You often get the best results by combining individual and group brainstorming, and by managing the process according to the "rules" below. By doing this, you can get people to focus on the issue without interruption, you maximize the number of ideas that you can generate, and you get that great feeling of team bonding that comes with a well-run brainstorming session! To run a group brainstorming session effectively, follow these steps. Step 1: Prepare the Group First, set up a comfortable meeting environment for the session. Make sure that the room is well-lit and that you have the tools, resources, and refreshments that you need. How much information or preparation does your team need in order to brainstorm solutions to your problem? Remember that prep is important, but too much can limit or even destroy the freewheeling nature of a brainstorming session. Consider who will attend the meeting. A room full of like-minded people won't generate as many creative ideas as a diverse group, so try to include people from a wide range of disciplines, and include people who have a variety of different thinking styles.

When everyone is gathered, appoint one person to record the ideas that come from the session. This person shouldn't necessarily be the team manager it's hard to record and contribute at the same time. Post notes where everyone can see them, such as on flip charts or whiteboards; or use a computer with a data projector. If people aren't used to working together, consider using an appropriate warm-up exercise, or an icebreaker. Step 2: Present the Problem Clearly define the problem that you want to solve, and lay out any criteria that you must meet. Make it clear that that the meeting's objective is to generate as many ideas as possible. Give people plenty of quiet time at the start of the session to write down as many of their own ideas as they can. Then, ask them to share their ideas, while giving everyone a fair opportunity to contribute. Step 3: Guide the Discussion Once everyone has shared their ideas, start a group discussion to develop other people's ideas, and use them to create new ideas. Building on others' ideas is one of the most valuable aspects of group brainstorming. Encourage everyone to contribute and to develop ideas, including the quietest people, and discourage anyone from criticizing ideas. As the group facilitator, you should share ideas if you have them, but spend your time and energy supporting your team and guiding the discussion. Stick to one conversation at a time, and refocus the group if people become sidetracked.

Although you're guiding the discussion, remember to let everyone have fun while brainstorming. Welcome creativity, and encourage your team to come up with as many ideas as possible, regardless of whether they're practical or impractical. Use thought experiments such as Provocation or Random Input to generate some unexpected ideas. Don't follow one train of thought for too long. Make sure that you generate a good number of different ideas, and explore individual ideas in detail. If a team member needs to "tune out" to explore an idea alone, allow them the freedom to do this. Also, if the brainstorming session is lengthy, take plenty of breaks so that people can continue to concentrate. Taking Your Brainstorming Further If you're not getting enough good quality ideas, try using the approaches below to increase the number of ideas that you generate:

The Stepladder Technique This improves the contribution of quieter group members by introducing one person at a time.

Brainwriting This is a written approach that you can use to encourage all individuals to generate and develop ideas.

Brain-netting An electronic method of brainstorming, this uses a document stored on a central server, or on a Cloud-based system.

Crawford's Slip Writing Approach You can use this approach to get plenty of ideas from all participants, and to get a view of each idea's popularity.

These techniques help you in specific brainstorming situations:

Reverse Brainstorming This is used to improve a product or service.

Starbursting Starbursting helps you develop questions that you need to ask to evaluate a proposal.

Charette Procedure This helps you brainstorm with large groups of people. (Conventional brainstorming becomes increasingly ineffective when more than 10 or 12 people are involved.)

Round-Robin Brainstorming You can use this approach to get people to contribute ideas without being influenced by others.

Rolestorming This technique encourages group members to take on other people's identities while brainstorming, thereby reducing their inhibitions.

The Next Step Taking Action After your individual or group brainstorming session, you'll have a lot of ideas. Although it might seem hard to sort through these ideas to find the best ones, analyzing these ideas is an important next step, and you can use several tools to do this. Use Affinity Diagrams to organize ideas and find common themes. Grid Analysis and Paired Comparison Analysis will help you choose between different options. You can also use the Six Thinking Hats technique to look at ideas from different perspectives; and Nominal Group Technique and Multi-Voting can help you choose between options as a team, particularly where the differences between options are quite subjective.

BRAINSTORMING
Brainstorming is a group or individual creativity technique by which efforts are made to find a conclusion for a specific problem by gathering a list of ideas spontaneously contributed by its member(s). The term was popularized by Alex Faickney Osborn in the 1953 book Applied Imagination. Osborn claimed that brainstorming was more effective than individuals working alone in generating ideas, although more recent research has questioned this conclusion.[1] Today, the term is used as a catch all for all group ideation sessions. brainstorming activity conducting Following these two principles were his four general rules of brainstorming, established with intention to :

reduce social inhibitions among group members, stimulate idea generation increase overall creativity of the group.

1. Focus on quantity: This rule is a means of enhancing divergent production, aiming to facilitate problem solving through the maxim quantity breeds quality. The assumption is that the greater the number of ideas generated, the greater the chance of producing a radical and effective solution. 2. Withhold criticism: In brainstorming, criticism of ideas generated should be put 'on hold'. Instead, participants should focus on extending or adding to ideas, reserving criticism for a later 'critical stage' of the process. By suspending judgment, participants will feel free to generate unusual ideas. 3. Welcome unusual ideas: To get a good and long list of ideas, unusual ideas are welcomed. They can be generated by looking from new perspectives and suspending assumptions. These new ways of thinking may provide better solutions. 4. Combine and improve ideas: Good ideas may be combined to form a single better good idea, as suggested by the slogan "1+1=3". It is believed to stimulate the building of ideas by a process of association.[2] Applications Osborn notes that brainstorming should address a specific question; he held that sessions addressing multiple questions were inefficient.

Further, the problem must require the generation of ideas rather than judgment; he uses examples such as generating possible names for a product as proper brainstorming material, whereas analytical judgments such as whether or not to marry do not have any need for brainstorming.[2] Brainstorming groups Osborn envisioned groups of around 12 participants, including both experts and novices. Participants are encouraged to provide wild and unexpected answers. Ideas receive no criticism or discussion. The group simply provides ideas that might lead to a solution and apply no analytical judgement as to the feasibility. The judgements are reserved for a later date.[2]

Variations
Nominal group technique Participants are asked to write their ideas anonymously. Then the facilitator collects the ideas and the group votes on each idea. The vote can be as simple as a show of hands in favor of a given idea. This process is called distillation. After distillation, the top ranked ideas may be sent back to the group or to subgroups for further brainstorming. For example, one group may work on the color required in a product. Another group may work on the size, and so forth. Each group will come back to the whole group for ranking the listed ideas. Sometimes ideas that were previously dropped may be brought forward again once the group has re-evaluated the ideas. It is important that the facilitator be trained in this process before attempting to facilitate this technique. The group should be primed and encouraged to embrace the process. Like all team efforts, it may take a few practice sessions to train the team in the method before tackling the important ideas. Group passing technique Each person in a circular group writes down one idea, and then passes the piece of paper to the next person, who adds some thoughts. This continues until everybody gets his or her original piece of paper back. By this time, it is likely that the group will have extensively elaborated on each idea. The group may also create an "idea book" and post a distribution list or routing slip to the front of the book. On the first page is a description of the problem. The first

person to receive the book lists his or her ideas and then routes the book to the next person on the distribution list. The second person can log new ideas or add to the ideas of the previous person. This continues until the distribution list is exhausted. A follow-up "read out" meeting is then held to discuss the ideas logged in the book. This technique takes longer, but it allows individuals time to think deeply about the problem. Team idea mapping method This method of brainstorming works by the method of association. It may improve collaboration and increase the quantity of ideas, and is designed so that all attendees participate and no ideas are rejected. The process begins with a well-defined topic. Each participant brainstorms individually, then all the ideas are merged onto one large idea map. During this consolidation phase, participants may discover a common understanding of the issues as they share the meanings behind their ideas. During this sharing, new ideas may arise by the association, and they are added to the map as well. Once all the ideas are captured, the group can prioritize and/or take action.[3] Electronic brainstorming It is a computerized version of the manual brainstorming technique typically supported by an electronic meeting system (EMS) but simpler forms can also be done via email and may be browser based, or use peer-to-peer software. With an electronic meeting system, participants share a list of ideas over a network. Ideas are entered independently. Contributions become immediately visible to all and are typically anonymized to encourage openness and reduce personal prejudice. Modern EMS also support asynchronous brainstorming sessions over extended periods of time as well as typical follow-up activities in the creative problem solving process such as categorization of ideas, elimination of duplicates, assessment and discussion of prioritized or controversial ideas. Proponents such as Gallupe et al. argue that electronic brainstorming eliminates many of the problems of standard brainstorming, including production blocking (i.e. group members must take turns to express their ideas) and evaluation apprehension (i.e. fear of being judged by others). This positive effect increases with larger groups[4] A perceived advantage of this format is that all ideas can be archived electronically in their original form, and then retrieved later for further thought and discussion. Electronic brainstorming also enables much larger groups to brainstorm on a topic than would normally be productive in a traditional brainstorming session. [5]

When exposed to others ideas, attention is focused by the group member on these ideas and this attention has been proposed to cognitively stimulate the brainstormer[4]Therefore, the individual members of the brainstorming group perform better during the session because people see everyone elses ideas on the computer screen (via chat room or e-mail), explaining the positive effects of EBS. Additionally, during an EBS session, participants have control over their activity and can attend to the ideas of others while also creating their own, continually exposing paticipants to a flow of ideas. EBS techniques have been shown to produce more ideas and help individuals focus their attention on the ideas of others better than a brainwriting technique (participants write individual written notes in silence and then subsequently communicate them with the group)[4] The production of more ideas has been linked to the fact that paying attention to others ideas leads to non-redundency, as one will try to avoid to replicate or repeat another participants comment or idea. The fact that individuals are not physically visible has also been shown to be an important component to the superiority of EBS over other methods, such as brainwriting. Due to the fact that participants are not typically in a room with the group, social cues such as facial expression and verbal language are not available, and therefore, attention is paid to the task at hand and the ideas rather than the people involved[4] Some web-based brainstorming techniques allow contributors to post their comments anonymously through the use of avatars. This technique also allows users to log on over an extended time period, typically one or two weeks, to allow participants some "soak time" before posting their ideas and feedback. This technique has been used particularly in the field of new product development, but can be applied in any number of areas requiring collection and evaluation of ideas. Some limitations of EBS include the fact that it can flood people with too many ideas at one time that they have to attend to, and people may also compare their performance to others by analyzing how many ideas each individual produces (social matching). Directed brainstorming Directed brainstorming is a variation of electronic brainstorming (described above). It can be done manually or with computers. Directed brainstorming works when the solution space (that is, the set of criteria for evaluating a good idea) is known prior to the session. If known, those criteria can be used to constrain the Ideation process intentionally.

In directed brainstorming, each participant is given one sheet of paper (or electronic form) and told the brainstorming question. They are asked to produce one response and stop, then all of the papers (or forms) are randomly swapped among the participants. The participants are asked to look at the idea they received and to create a new idea that improves on that idea based on the initial criteria. The forms are then swapped again and respondents are asked to improve upon the ideas, and the process is repeated for three or more rounds. In the laboratory, directed brainstorming has been found to almost triple the productivity of groups over electronic brainstorming.[6] Guided brainstorming A guided brainstorming session is time set aside to brainstorm either individually or as a collective group about a particular subject under the constraints of perspective and time. This type of brainstorming removes all cause for conflict and constrains conversations while stimulating critical and creative thinking in an engaging, balanced environment. Innovative ideas consistently emerge. Participants are asked to adopt different mindsets for pre-defined period of time while contributing their ideas to a central mind map drawn by a pre-appointed scribe. Having examined a multi-perspective point of view, participants seemingly see the simple solutions that collectively create greater growth. Action is assigned individually. Following a guided brainstorming session participants emerge with ideas ranked for further brainstorming, research and questions remaining unanswered and a prioritized, assigned, actionable list that leaves everyone with a clear understanding of what needs to happen next and the ability to visualize the combined future focus and greater goals of the group. www.theglobalbrainstorm.com is currently Beta testing the mass use of this way of working and will publish results. 12 months of field trials report a consistent time saving of 75% (reducing 1 hour brainstorming sessions to 15 minutes), increased levels of contribution, productivity and motivation and a frequent emergence of innovative ideas. Individual brainstorming "Individual brainstorming" is the use of brainstorming in solitary. It typically includes such techniques as free writing, free speaking, word association, and drawing a mind map, which is a visual note taking technique in which people diagram their thoughts.

Individual brainstorming is a useful method in creative writing and has been shown to be superior to traditional group brainstorming.[7] Research has shown individual brainstorming to be more effective in idea-generation than group brainstorming.[1] Question brainstorming This process involves brainstorming the questions, rather than trying to come up with immediate answers and short term solutions. Theoretically, this technique should not inhibit participation as there is no need to provide solutions. The answers to the questions form the framework for constructing future action plans. Once the list of questions is set, it may be necessary to prioritize them to reach to the best solution in an orderly way.[8]

Delphi method
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

The Delphi method (pron.: /dlfa/ DEL-fy) is a structured communication technique, originally developed as a systematic, interactive forecasting method which relies on a panel of experts.[1][2][3][4] The experts answer questionnaires in two or more rounds. After each round, a facilitator provides an anonymous summary of the experts forecasts from the previous round as well as the reasons they provided for their judgments. Thus, experts are encouraged to revise their earlier answers in light of the replies of other members of their panel. It is believed that during this process the range of the answers will decrease and the group will converge towards the "correct" answer. Finally, the process is stopped after a pre-defined stop criterion (e.g. number of rounds, achievement of consensus, stability of results) and the mean or median scores of the final rounds determine the results.[5] Delphi is based on the principle that forecasts (or decisions) from a structured group of individuals are more accurate than those from unstructured groups.[6] The technique can also be adapted for use in face-to-face meetings, and is then called mini-Delphi or Estimate-Talk-Estimate (ETE). Delphi has been widely used for business forecasting and has certain advantages over another structured forecasting approach, prediction markets.[7]

History
The name "Delphi" derives from the Oracle of Delphi. The authors of the method were not happy with this name, because it implies "something oracular, something smacking a little of the occult".[citation needed] The Delphi method is based on the assumption that group judgments are more valid than individual judgments. The Delphi method was developed at the beginning of the Cold War to forecast the impact of technology on warfare.[8] In 1944, General Henry H. Arnold ordered the creation of the report for the U.S. Army Air Corps on the future technological capabilities that might be used by the military. Different approaches were tried, but the shortcomings of traditional forecasting methods, such as theoretical approach, quantitative models or trend extrapolation, in areas where precise scientific laws have not been established yet, quickly became apparent. To combat these shortcomings, the Delphi method was developed by Project RANDduring the 1950-1960s (1959) by Olaf Helmer, Norman Dalkey, and Nicholas Rescher.[9] It has been used ever since, together with various modifications and reformulations, such as the Imen-Delphi procedure. Experts were asked to give their opinion on the probability, frequency, and intensity of possible enemy attacks. Other experts could anonymously give feedback. This process was repeated several times until a consensus emerged.

Key characteristics

The Delphi Method communication structure

The following key characteristics of the Delphi method help the participants to focus on the issues at hand and separate Delphi from other methodologies: Anonymity of the participants Usually all participants remain anonymous. Their identity is not revealed, even after the completion of the final report. This prevents the authority, personality, or reputation of some participants from dominating others in the process. Arguably, it also frees participants (to some extent) from their personal biases, minimizes the "bandwagon effect" or "halo effect", allows free expression of opinions, encourages open critique, and facilitates admission of errors when revising earlier judgments. Structuring of information flow The initial contributions from the experts are collected in the form of answers to questionnaires and their comments to these answers. The panel director controls the interactions among the participants by processing the information and filtering out irrelevant content. This avoids the negative effects of face-to-face panel discussions and solves the usual problems of group dynamics. Regular feedback Participants comment on their own forecasts, the responses of others and on the progress of the panel as a whole. At any moment they can revise their earlier statements. While in regular group meetings participants tend to stick to previously stated opinions and often conform too much to the group leader; the Delphi method prevents it. Role of the facilitator The person coordinating the Delphi method can be known as a facilitator, and facilitates the responses of their panel of experts, who are selected for a reason, usually that they hold knowledge on an opinion or view. The facilitator sends out questionnaires, surveys etc. and if the panel of experts accept, they follow instructions and present their views. Responses are collected and analyzed, then common and conflicting viewpoints are identified. If consensus is not reached, the process continues through thesis and antithesis, to gradually work towards synthesis, and building consensus.

Applications
Use in forecasting First applications of the Delphi method were in the field of science and technology forecasting. The objective of the method was to combine expert opinions on likelihood and expected development time, of the particular technology, in a single indicator. One of the first such reports, prepared in 1964 by Gordon and Helmer, assessed the direction of long-term trends in science and technology development, covering such topics as scientific breakthroughs, population control, automation, space progress, war prevention and weapon systems. Other forecasts of technology were dealing with vehicle-highway systems, industrial robots, intelligent internet, broadband connections, and technology in education. Later the Delphi method was applied in other areas, especially those related to public policy issues, such as economic trends, health and education. It was also applied successfully and with high accuracy in business forecasting. For example, in one case reported by Basu and Schroeder (1977),[10] the Delphi method predicted the sales of a new product during the first two years with inaccuracy of 34% compared with actual sales. Quantitative methods produced errors of 1015%, and traditional unstructured forecast methods had errors of about 20%. The Delphi method has also been used as a tool to implement multi-stakeholder approaches for participative policy-making in developing countries. The governments of Latin America and the Caribbean have successfully used the Delphi method as an open-ended public-private sector approach to identify the most urgent challenges for their regionalICT-for-development eLAC Action Plans.[11] As a result, governments have widely acknowledged the value of collective intelligence from civil society, academic and private sector participants of the Delphi, especially in a field of rapid change, such as technology policies. Use in policy-making From the 1970s, the use of the Delphi technique in public policy-making introduces a number of methodological innovations. In particular:

the need to examine several types of items (not only forecasting items but, typically, issue items, goal items, and option items) leads to introducing different evaluation scales which are not used in the standard Delphi. These often include desirability, feasibility (technical and political) and probability, which the analysts can use to outline different scenarios: the desired scenario

(from desirability), the potential scenario (from feasibility) and the expected scenario (from probability); the complexity of the issues posed in public policy-making leads to give more importance to the arguments supporting the evaluations of the panelists; so these are often invited to list arguments for and against each option item, and sometimes they are given the possibility to suggest new items to be submitted to the panel; for the same reason, the scaling methods, which are used to measure panel evaluations, often include more sophisticated approaches such as multidimensional scaling.

Further innovations come from the use of computer-based (and later web-based) Delphi conferences. According to Turoff and Hiltz,[12] in computer-based Delphis:

the iteration structure used in the paper Delphis, which is divided into three or more discrete rounds, can be replaced by a process of continuous (roundless) interaction, enabling panelists to change their evaluations at any time; the statistical group response can be updated in real-time, and shown whenever a panelist provides a new evaluation.

According to Bolognini,[13] web-based Delphis offer two further possibilities, relevant in the context of interactive policy-making and e-democracy. These are:

A web-based communication structure (Hyperdelphi).[13]

the involvement of a large number of participants, the use of two or more panels representing different groups (such as policymakers, experts, citizens), which the administrator can give tasks reflecting their diverse roles and expertise, and make them to interact within ad hoc communication structures. For example, the policy community members (policy-makers and experts) may interact as part of the main conference panel, while they receive inputs from a virtual community (citizens, associations etc.) involved in a side conference. These web-based variable communication structures, which he calls Hyperdelphi (HD), are designed to make Delphi

conferences "more fluid and adapted to the hypertextual and interactive nature of digital communication". One successful example of a (partially) web-based policy Delphi is the five-round Delphi exercise (with 1,454 contributions) for the creation of the eLAC Action Plans in Latin America. It is believed to be the most extensive online participatory policy-making foresight exercise in the history of intergovernmental processes in the developing world at this time.[11] In addition to the specific policy guidance provided, the authors list the following lessons learned include "(1) the potential of Policy Delphi methods to introduce transparency and accountability into public decisionmaking, especially in developing countries; (2) the utility of foresight exercises to foster multi-agency networking in the development community; (3) the usefulness of embedding foresight exercises into established mechanisms of representative democracy and international multilateralism, such as the United Nations; (4) the potential of online tools to facilitate participation in resource-scarce developing countries; and (5) the resource-efficiency stemming from the scale of international foresight exercises, and therefore its adequacy for resource-scarce regions."[11] Online Delphi systems Main article: Real-time Delphi A number of Delphi forecasts are conducted using web sites that allow the process to be conducted in real-time. For instance, the TechCast Project uses a panel of 100 experts worldwide to forecast breakthroughs in all fields of science and technology. Another example is the Horizon Project, where educational futurists collaborate online using the Delphi method to come up with the technological advancements to look out for in education for the next few years.

Variations
Traditionally the Delphi method has aimed at a consensus of the most probable future by iteration. Other versions, such as the Policy Delphi,[14][15] In Europe, more recent web-based experiments have used the Delphi method as a communication technique for interactive decision-making and e-democracy.[16] is instead a decision support method aiming at structuring and discussing the diverse views of the preferred future. The Argument Delphi, was developed by Osmo Kuusi, focuses on ongoing discussion and finding relevant arguments rather than focusing on the output. The Disaggregative Policy Delphi, developed by Petri Tapio, uses cluster analysis as a systematic tool to construct various scenarios of the future in the latest Delphi round.[17] The

respondent's view on the probable and the preferable future are dealt with as separate cases.

Discussion
Overall the track record of the Delphi method is mixed. There have been many cases when the method produced poor results. Still, some authors attribute this to poor application of the method and not to the weaknesses of the method itself.[citation needed] It must also be realized that in areas such as science and technology forecasting, the degree of uncertainty is so great that exact and always correct predictions are impossible, so a high degree of error is to be expected. Another particular weakness of the Delphi method is that future developments are not always predicted correctly by consensus of experts. Firstly, the issue of ignorance is important. If panelists are misinformed about a topic, the use of Delphi may only add confidence to their ignorance.[18] Secondly, sometimes unconventional thinking of amateur outsiders may be superior to expert thinking. One of the initial problems of the method was its inability to make complex forecasts with multiple factors. Potential future outcomes were usually considered as if they had no effect on each other. Later on, several extensions to the Delphi method were developed to address this problem, such as cross impact analysis, that takes into consideration the possibility that the occurrence of one event may change probabilities of other events covered in the survey. Still the Delphi method can be used most successfully in forecasting single scalar indicators. Despite these shortcomings, today the Delphi method is a widely accepted forecasting tool and has been used successfully for thousands of studies in areas varying from technology forecasting to drug abuse.[19] Delphi vs. prediction markets Delphi has characteristics similar to prediction markets as both are structured approaches that aggregate diverse opinions from groups. Yet, there are differences that may be decisive for their relative applicability for different problems.[7] Some advantages of prediction markets derive from the possibility to provide incentives for participation. 1. They can motivate people to participate over a long period of time and to reveal their true beliefs.

2. They aggregate information automatically and instantly incorporate new information in the forecast. 3. Participants do not have to be selected and recruited manually by a facilitator. They themselves decide whether to participate if they think their private information is not yet incorporated in the forecast. Delphi seems to have these advantages over prediction markets: 1. Participants reveal their reasoning 2. It is easier to maintain confidentiality 3. Potentially quicker forecasts if experts are readily available.

The 7Cs of Consulting

Mick Cope's The 7Cs of Consulting should be required reading for all budding and and even experienced consultants. It presents an impressive array of tools, techniques and guidance at every step of the way through an assignment .... irrespective of the length of that assignment. Most importantly, it sits neatly alongside both project management and change management methodologies, forming a powerful triumvirate for internal consultants and Program/Change Management functions and Project Offices within an organization. The 7Cs of Consulting should be part of the PMO/CMO setup for any organization in the public or private sector and is a welcome addition to the consultant's library.

The 7Cs of Consultancy

The 7Cs of Consulting applies, no matter whether your consultancy assignment is 1 month or 1 year. The approach should broadly follow Mick Cope's seven best practice stages. The 7Cs of Consulting.

Here are the 7 stages we suggest you commit them to memory: 1. Client - understand the requirements

2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7.

Clarify - the nature of the problem Create - plan of action Change - defined Confirm - check result Continue - ensure continuity Close - publish measured outcomes

Management Consulting Methodology

What is a consulting methodology? Consulting methodologies are methods or approaches used by consultants in tackling a particular challenge, problem or client engagement. Characteristics of a consulting methodology Consulting methodologies typically possess some or all of the following characteristics: Based on a coherent set of design principles, concepts and theories Supported by a body of research undertaken either in an academic or commercial environment Enable a particular challenge to be tackled in a structured and systematic fashion with a high probability of achieving particular beneficial outcomes Likely to have been used in similar situations a number of times before and through use and application the methodology is likely to have been refined and improved The value of a methodology Management consultants benefit greatly from operating by reference to proven consulting methodologies. A consulting methodology provides a frame of reference, structure and often a prescribed set of activities and tasks that will be undertaken in a particular and logical order. Examples of consulting methodologies Across all mainstream consulting disciplines there are numerous examples of consulting methodologies; some common examples are set out below: Software development methodology In software development there are two broad categories of methodology or approach. First, the traditional development approach that starts with capturing business requirements and then progresses sequentially through design, development, testing and implementation. As an alternative, many IT professionals make use of what is referred to as a Rapid Application Development methodology which generally is a much more rapid and

pragmatic approach. Central to RAD is the requirement that experts from the business and technology arenas work closely together in collaboration through all stages of the project. This methodology offers the potential for a number of advantages including reducing the risk of misunderstandings on business requirements and increasing the likelihood of the project been completed in a shorter time frame. Project management methodology Most management consulting assignments need to be planned and executed as discrete projects. PRINCE2 is widely held to be the leading best-practice project management methodology. The method provides a proven framework in addition to a coherent set of tools that together support a structured yet flexible approach to managing a project through it's life cycle. Business process improvement methodology Another very common consulting methodology is Lean Six Sigma which has been widely adopted in many process based businesses and industries, and is thought by many to be the most effective method for the design and optimization of business processes.

Organizational Sub - Control Techniques

Control techniques provide managers with the type and amount of information they need to measure and monitor performance. The information from various controls must be tailored to a specific management level, department, unit, or operation. To ensure complete and consistent information, organizations often use standardized documents such as financial, status, and project reports. Each area within an organization, however, uses its own specific control techniques, described in the following sections.

Financial controls
After the organization has strategies in place to reach its goals, funds are set aside for the necessary resources and labor. As money is spent, statements are updated to reflect how much was spent, how it was spent, and what it obtained. Managers use these financial statements, such as an income statement or balance sheet, to monitor the progress of programs and plans. Financial statements provide management with information to monitor financial resources and activities. Theincome statement shows the results of the organization's operations over a period of time, such as revenues,

expenses, and profit or loss. The balance sheetshows what the organization is worth (assets) at a single point in time, and the extent to which those assets were financed through debt (liabilities) or owner's investment (equity). Financial audits, or formal investigations, are regularly conducted to ensure that financial management practices follow generally accepted procedures, policies, laws, and ethical guidelines. Audits may be conducted internally or externally. Financial ratio analysis examines the relationship between specific figures on the financial statements and helps explain the significance of those figures: Liquidity ratios measure an organization's ability to generate cash. Profitability ratios measure an organization's ability to generate profits. Debt ratios measure an organization's ability to pay its debts. Activity ratios measure an organization's efficiency in operations and use of assets. In addition, financial responsibility centers require managers to account for a unit's

progress toward financial goals within the scope of their influences. A manager's goals and responsibilities may focus on unit profits, costs, revenues, or investments.

Budget controls
A budget depicts how much an organization expects to spend (expenses) and earn (revenues) over a time period. Amounts are categorized according to the type of business activity or account, such as telephone costs or sales of catalogs. Budgets not only help managers plan their finances, but also help them keep track of their overall spending. A budget, in reality, is both a planning tool and a control mechanism. Budget development processes vary among organizations according to who does the budgeting and how the financial resources are allocated. Some budget development methods are as follows:

Top-down budgeting. Managers prepare the budget and send it to subordinates. Bottom-up budgeting. Figures come from the lower levels and are adjusted and coordinated as they move up the hierarchy. Zero-based budgeting. Managers develop each new budget by justifying the projected allocation against its contribution to departmental or organizational goals. Flexible budgeting. Any budget exercise can incorporate flexible budgets, which set meet or beat standards that can be compared to expenditures.

Marketing controls
Marketing controls help monitor progress toward goals for customer satisfaction with products and services, prices, and delivery. The following are examples of controls used to evaluate an organization's marketing functions: Market research gathers data to assess customer needsinformation critical to an organization's success. Ongoing market research reflects how well an organization is meeting customers' expectations and helps anticipate customer needs. It also helps identify competitors. Test marketing is small-scale product marketing to assess customer acceptance. Using surveys and focus groups, test marketing goes beyond identifying general requirements and looks at what (or who) actually influences buying decisions. Marketing statistics measure performance by compiling data and analyzing results. In most cases, competency with a computer spreadsheet program is all a manager needs. Managers look at marketing ratios, which measure profitability, activity, and market shares, as well as sales quotas, which measure progress toward sales goals and assist with inventory controls. Unfortunately, scheduling a regular evaluation of an organization's marketing program is easier to recommend than to execute. Usually, only a crisis, such as increased competition or a sales drop, forces a company to take a closer look at its marketing program. However, more regular evaluations help minimize the number of marketing problems.

Human resource controls

Human resource controls help managers regulate the quality of newly hired personnel, as well as monitor current employees' developments and daily performances.

Computers and information controls

Almost all organizations have confidential and sensitive information that they don't want to become general knowledge. Controlling access to computer databases is the key to this area.

Performance limitations. Although management information systems have the potential to increase overall performance, replacing long-time organizational employees with information systems technology may result in the loss of expert knowledge that these individuals hold Behavioral limitations. Information technology allows managers to access more information than ever before. But too much information can overwhelm employees, cause stress, and even slow decision making.

Health risks. Potentially serious health-related issues associated with the use of computers and other information technology have been raised in recent years. An example is carpal tunnel syndrome, a painful disorder in the hands and wrists caused by repetitive movements (such as those made on a keyboard).

Regardless of the control processes used, an effective system determines whether