Silver futures for May delivery onIndia's Multi Commodity Exchange(MCX) may trade bullish according toour analyst and further buying isexpected only above 46000 level forthe day. Two major US data releasesare scheduled at 06.00 PM IST todayand may have high impact on bullion.Barclays expect gold prices to recoverto an average $1,500/oz in Q4 13 butgiven the weight of cash negative ETPholdings, they believe downside risk
still exists in the near term, andexpects prices to average $1350/oz.Continued ETP outflows remain a keydownside risk to prices in the nearterm and are on track to mark a freshrecord high, surpassing the weakness
According to pipeline data estimates,natural gas production has recoveredin late April to above 65 Bcf/d andBarclays in its recent market report,expects production to average aroundthis level before dipping into declinesin the second half of the year.For next Tuesday’s EIA-914production report, Barclays expects amoderate m/m growth for February’snatural gas
lower-48 production.Furthermore, production shouldcontinue to recover in March andApril, as well freeze offs slowly comesback online.Natural gas prices came off at thefront end of the curve, with theprompt contract down 5% w/w, asthe weather forecast for the next 15days turned milder.
LME cash price forecast to$16,766/tfrom $17,766/t and upgraded thesize of the surplus to 108Ktfrom88Kt.LME stocks have risen 33Kt year-to-date, which particularlydemonstrates the oversupply in themarket ex-China, given that netrefined imports into China rose 36%y/y in Q1 alone. Within China,while it is difficult to ascertainexact volumes and a breakdownbetween
Private/SRB stockpiling, Barclaysbelieve as much as 25Kt of inventory has built over the sameperiod given ongoing weakness inthe domestic stainless sector.