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 An early-morning wave breaks into the sunrise in Ventura,California. There are many ways to tap the energy availablein the ocean, including harnessing underwater currents, tidalflows, and wave motion.
TODD GLASER
F
or millennia, renewable energy from the wind, sea, sun, and landprovided all of the Earth’s energy needs. It was the Industrial Erathat drove humanity to use coal, oil, and natural gas fossil fuels (andeventually nuclear energy) to support its nearly insatiable appetite for power.oday we face energy and climate crises that threaten both the survival of thehuman species as well as biodiversity across the globe. In response, renewablesare once again being pursued as one of the key solutions to meet our needsin a sustainable way. Tis chapter focuses on what they actually are and whatthey can contribute. World consumption of fossil fuels has increased exponentially in the pastcentury, and industrialized countries consume the lion’s share. In 2005, Chinaconsumed as much coal as the United States, Russia, India, and Australiacombined. However, the United States, with only 5% of the world’s population,consumes one-fourth of the daily global oil supply, whereas China accountsfor 6% of consumption with one-fifth of global population. Between 2000and 2025, oil use is officially forecast to grow by 44% in the United States and57% in the world. By 2025, the United States will use as much oil as Canada, Western and Eastern Europe, Japan, Australia, and New Zealand combined.Te forecasted increase alone in U.S. oil imports will exceed the 2001 total oiluse of China, India, and South Korea (Lovins et al., 2004). Yet the problems of growth are not limited to the United States. oday, only 12% of the world’s population own cars. Africa and China currently have thecar ownership America enjoyed in 1915. However, China’s compound annualcar growth was 55% between 2001 and 2005. By 2025, its cars could requirethe oil output of a Saudi Arabia or two (which now exports one-fourth of  world oil).Such harrowing growth rates in fossil fuel usage will dramatically increasegreenhouse gas emissions to a level threatening to derail society’s capacity tostabilize atmospheric concentrations below a safe threshold, triggering multi-century catastrophic consequences (Hansen, 2005; Hansen et al., 2008;Romm, 2007). Fortunately, a significant fraction of the growth rate in theglobal demand for energy and mobility services can be effectively satisfiedthrough smart energy efficiency improvements, at tens of trillions of dollars
CHAPTER TWOMichael Totten
Renewable Energy
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lower cost this century compared to conventional supply expansion. Moreover,as illuminated in Chapter 1: Energy Efficiency, many of the efficiency gainsactually enhance the cost-effectiveness of wind and solar energy options.Renewable resources take diverse forms and include solar, wind, geothermal,biological, and hydrological sources. Tey can be used to provide any of themyriad applications for which humankind requires: thermal heat; solid, liquid,or gaseous chemical fuels; or even electricity.Many of these sources are highly cost-effective now and will only becomeincreasingly economical in the coming decades. o facilitate their applicationand acceptance, we need to stop providing incentives for outdated andunsustainable fuel technologies and focus instead on the most ecologically sustainable renewable sources, notably wind and solar. Te combination, inparticular, of vehicle-to-grid system efficiencies and expansion of wind andsolar energy offers multiple benefits: reduced cost of energy services; dramaticreductions in greenhouse gases, acid rain, and urban air pollutants; deepreductions in oil imports; and significantly less wilderness habitat convertedand fresh water diverted to grow fuel crops.It will also take ambitious research, development, and demonstrationinitiatives, coupled with market-based incentives and innovative regulatory policies, to ensure the timely availability of economically attractive andaffordable renewables on a global scale throughout this century.
Abundant Options
Current global energy consumption is about 15 terawatt-years or 475 exajoules,the equivalent of oil supertanker shipments arriving at the rate of one every ten minutes, or the distribution of fuel to service stations by 437 milliondelivery trucks per year. Projected energy consumption worldwide from 2000to 2100, assuming no change in human behavior, is approximately 240 timesthe current amount—about 3,600 terawatt-years or 113,000 exajoules. Fossilfuels, also assuming no change in human behavior, would account for three-fourths of this sum, releasing several trillion tons of greenhouse gases, whiletripling the Earth’s atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases (in carbon-dioxide equivalents) from pre-industrial levels.Opinion surveys consistently show that more than 80% of citizens prefersolar and other renewables and energy efficiency to the use of fossil fuels. Tisis not surprising, given the unimaginably vast amount of renewable energy flows worldwide. Consider that global human energy consumption in 2007amounted to just one hour of sunlight landing on Earth. Expert evaluationsconclude that renewables are quite capable over the long term, in combination with extensive energy efficiency gains, to economically provide the currenttotal global energy supply many times over.
Solar.
Solar technical potential is conservatively estimated at greater than 50terawatt-years per year, or more than three times the current annual globalenergy use. From 2000 to 2100, solar’s technical potential of 5,000 terawatt-years is 277% greater than the remaining post-efficiency supply requirements(i.e., after harnessing the large pool of cost-effective energy-efficiency opportunities). Tis solar technical potential was characterized nearly a decadeago, and faster market developments indicate this potential will increase overtime as continuous scientific advancements and technological breakthroughsare able to capture an ever-larger fraction of the theoretical potential of 124,000 terawatt-years, or nearly 4 million exajoules per year. 
Wind.
 Wind technical potential is more than 20 terawatt-years per year, ormore than 134% of the current annual global energy use. From 2000 to 2100, wind’s technical potential of 2,000 terawatt-years is more than 110% greaterthan the remaining (post-efficiency) supply requirements. About 1–2% of theenergy coming from the sun is converted into wind energy. Wind’s theoreticalpotential is 2,476 terawatt-years, or 78,000 exajoules per year.
Geothermal.
Geothermal technical potential is about 160 terawatt-years peryear, or more than ten times the current annual global energy use. Te Earth’sinterior reaches temperatures greater than 4,000°C, and this geothermal energy flows continuously to the surface. From 2000 to 2100, geothermal’s technicalpotential of 16,000 terawatt-years is 900% greater than the remaining (post-efficiency) supply requirements. Geothermal’s theoretical potential worldwide
A CLIMATE FOR LIFE
Livestock release methane, and research is showing how toreduce it. At the same time, methane from animal waste canbe recycled into a renewable gas.
PETER ESSICK 
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RENEWABLES
is 440,000 terawatt-years, or 14 million exajoules per year. Domestic resourcesin the United States are equivalent to a 30,000-year energy supply at thecurrent rate of consumption.
Biomass.
Biomass technical potential is 8.6 terawatt-years per year, or 57% of current annual global energy use. From 2000 to 2100, biomass’s technicalpotential of 860 terawatt-years is 48% of the remaining (post-efficiency)supply requirements. On average, plant net primary production (NPP) isabout 5 million calories per square meter per year. An important caveat aboutbiomass availability is that global NPP is the amount of energy available toall subsequent links in critical ecosystem services plus the food, fiber, animalfeed, and biofuel chain. Te Earth’s surface area is about 500 trillion m
2
. Tenet power output stored by plants is thus 19 terawatt-years, or 0.01% (1/100thof 1%) of the sun’s power emitted to Earth.
Oceans.
Ocean power’s technical potential (more than 80% from thermalenergy conversion) is 5 terawatt-years per year, or one-third of current annualglobal energy use. From 2000 to 2100, the ocean’s technical potential of 500terawatt-years is 27% of the remaining (post-efficiency) supply requirements.Tere are various potential ocean technologies, such as harnessing the power of underwater currents, tidal flows, wave motion, and exploiting the temperaturedifferences between different layers of the ocean(called Ocean Termal Energy Conversion). Moreresearch remains to be done on the ecologicalimpacts of the options on marine life, and thesetechnologies may play a niche role for some islandand coastal communities.
Hydropower.
Hydropower’s technical potential is1.6 terawatt-years per year, or a bit over 10% of current annual global energy use. From 2000 to2100, hydro’s technical potential of 160 terawatt-years is 9% of the remaining (post-efficiency)supply requirements. Tis potential is further limited by serious ecological,social, and climatic problems associated with some river sites.
Counting the Costs
Not surprisingly, much of the lively and contentious debate over futureenergy supplies tends to reduce itself to one key criterion: cost. Tis is myopicfor two reasons. First, assumptions about long-term technological cost andperformance data inherently contain a fair degree of subjective judgment. Tefuture is uncertain in too many ways, precluding any technical assessment toclaim complete objectivity or certitude. Moreover, current views on technology options are heavily conditioned by the long trail of public interventions andsubventions shaping markets and investment patterns. For humanity to avoidcatastrophic climate change, and avert conflicts and wars over oil resources,there will need to be a dramatic change in the calculus of energy policy-making and investment decision-making. Tis means it is a wide-open arenafor all energy options, even the current energy giants, since the accumulatedrules and subsidies currently in place are now facing a radical makeover toalign outcomes for climate-positive, real energy-security results (DeCanio,2003; Smil, 2003).Second, cost and climate emissions are just two criteria among many forensuring a sustainable smart-energy system worldwide this century. Tere
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