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Psi Final Report April 13

Psi Final Report April 13

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Published by Belinda Winkelman

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Published by: Belinda Winkelman on May 02, 2013
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08/22/2013

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Key findings
■
The latest seasonally adjusted Australian Industry Group/ Commonwealth Bank o Australia Perormance o Services Index(
Australian PSI
®
) ell by 5.5 points to 44.1 in April, indicatingcontractionary conditions on average across the sector (indexreadings below 50 points signiy contraction).
■
This month’s all in the
Australian PSI
®
reected declines in sales,new orders and employment levels as businesses cut prices andcosts in response to poor local demand.
■
Businesses directly exposed to household spending are reportingrelatively better trading conditions, with the hospitality, personal &recreational services, and health & community services sub-sectorsall expanding in April.
■
The rest o the services sector, however, contracted in April.
■
The more business-oriented services sub-sectors reported thatactivity in April was hampered by: uncertainty surrounding theupcoming ederal budget and election; state government spendingcuts, (particularly in South Australia); reduced demand or businessservices rom mining; and continued weakness in large parts o themanuacturing and construction sectors.
■
The latter has had a particularly strong eect on the transport &storage sub-sector which reported its worst trading conditions sincethe survey started in 2003.
sectors
■
The interest rate cuts seen over the past 18 months appear to bestarting to support activity in services sub-sectors that are directlyexposed to household spending.
■
In three-month-moving average terms (3mma), activity has risenacross the hospitality, health & community services, and personal& recreational service sub-sectors or three consecutive months.*
■
And despite slipping back in April, the 3mma activity index o theretail trade sub-sector has also picked up during 2013.
■
On the other hand, the more business-oriented servicessub-sectors such as transport & storage and communicationservices are yet to report any signifcant improvement inbusiness conditions.
■
The 3mma activity index o the transport & storage sector is at itslowest level since this sub-sector series started in 2003, underlyingthe weakness in demand or transport services rom large parts othe manuacturing and construction sectors.
sales and capacit
■
On a seasonally adjusted basis, sales levels contracted in April aterexpanding in March.
■
The sales component o the
Australian PSI
®
ell 7.3 points to43.5 points.
■
The monthly decline in the sub-index reected solid alls insales levels across the wholesale trade and transport & storagesub-sectors.
■
This was partly oset by sales growth in the personal & recreationalservices and health & community services sub-sectors.
■
Capacity utilisation in the services sector (which is not seasonallyadjusted) ell by 2.1 points to 74.6%, which is broadly in line withthe average level recorded since the start o 2010.
   D   i   f   f  u  s   i  o  n   I  n   d  e  x
   I  n  c  r  e  a  s   i  n  g   D  e  c  r  e  a  s   i  n  g
   J  u   l  y   1   0   O  c   t   1   0   J  a  n   1   1   A  p  r   1   1   J  u   l  y   1   1   O  c   t   1   1   J  a  n   1   2   A  p  r   1   2   J  u   l  y   1   2   O  c   t   1   2   J  a  n   1   3   A  p  r   1   3
3 month moving averageAustralian PSI
®
 
2530354045505560
Wholesale tradeRetail tradeAccommodation, cafes and restaurantsTransport and storageCommunication servicesFinance and insuranceProperty and business servicesHealth and community servicesPersonal and recreational servicesAustralian PSI
®
 
IncreasingDecreasing
Diffusion Index
(3 month moving average)
Mar 13Apr 13
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
   J  u   l  y   1   0   O  c   t   1   0   J  a  n   1   1   A  p  r   1   1   J  u   l  y   1   1   O  c   t   1   1   J  a  n   1   2   A  p  r   1   2   J  u   l  y   1   2   O  c   t   1   2   J  a  n   1   3   A  p  r   1   3
   D   i   f   f  u  s   i  o  n   I  n   d  e  x
Capacity UtilisationSales
   C  a  p  a  c   i   t  y   U   t   i   l   i  s  a   t   i  o  n   %    (   U  n  a   d   j .   )
25303540455055606555606570758085
services sector slipsdeeperinto the red in april
 april 2013
  a  u  s  t  r  a  l  i  a  n   p  s  i
   ®
  u  K  s  e  r  v  i  c  e  s  i  n  d  e  X  u  s  a  s  e  r  v  i  c  e  s  i  n  d  e  X  e  u  r  o  Z  o  n  e  s  e  r  v  i  c  e  s  i  n  d  e  X
44.1
3035404550556065
46.4
MARFEBMARFEBMARFEB
3035404550556065
52.4
30354045505560653035404550556065
MARAPR
54.4

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