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27/10/2010

ENGLISH

: :24 )( :3rd Year: Issue 24, Sep - 2005

"
The Mathematics modeling between the theoretical
wordings and the application is in the educational sciences
The educational planning field

.
) (

:

".
= +
" .
.


.

.
Key Word: The modeling, the construction and simulation, the
prediction, the educational planning, the control and the improvement of
the paths.

Abstract: The mathematics know that they are the sciences life,
and the modeling acts the mould that the knowledge consists in
and that the control of the equation of court one of their parties
the modeling Problem Solving = Modeling + Theorem
Proving. The new ideas materialize always in the form of
molded lights in a model that through it the prediction takes
place to the phenomena paths, And from the complicated issues
that she in need for their modeling of the social and educational
phenomena and that she is with the direct contact with the human
needs and his requirements. This research seeks the clarification
of the ideas that loads them the modeling and the possibility of
their application in the educational sciences and in particular the
educational planning that depends on it the movement of the
future.
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ENGLISH

: :24 )( :3rd Year: Issue 24, Sep - 2005

"
The Mathematics modeling between the theoretical
wordings and the application is in the educational sciences
The educational planning field

.
) (

:

".
= +

" .
.


.

.
Key Word: The modeling, the construction and simulation, the
prediction, the educational planning, the control and the improvement of
the paths.
Abstract: The mathematics know that they are the sciences life,
and the modeling acts the mould that the knowledge consists in
and that the control of the equation of court one of their parties
the modeling Problem Solving = Modeling + Theorem
Proving. The new ideas materialize always in the form of
molded lights in a model that through it the prediction takes
place to the phenomena paths, And from the complicated issues
that she in need for their modeling of the social and educational
phenomena and that she is with the direct contact with the human
needs and his requirements. This research seeks the clarification
of the ideas that loads them the modeling and the possibility of
their application in the educational sciences and in particular the
educational planning that depends on it the movement of the
future.
:







.

.
)(

.



.


.

.



)

.(2002


.








.









.
:

:
:)( :
) (Model



:
.
):( Planning Educational


.
: ):(Theory and Practice

((AXIOMS


.
:

.
:
:

)(.

:




.
:
.1 Explicit models
.2 Implicit models



)
(...
)
) (...
..(1998

:
,((F(X,Y,A(a1,a2,a3,., an
Y X A(a1,a2,a3
,(,., an F.

.

) (





.




.




.




.




.


.



.



.





.






)
. (2002


.


.
) (..


.


.








) .(2000




.








.









.




.

)( :



)(



.
:
:


): 2004 1970
(

) (



): (1

)(

)(
) (

)-
(
] .[ star, setar
):(1




: .









.

) .(1983
( I :




C Y
x C = a+bY+cx
a,b,c
) : .(.. :
-1 :


:
:
C = a + bY+U C Y U
.
:

.
.
.
.
.
.

-2 :

)
(...

.
-3 :



)(
.
-4 :



...

)
.(2000
-5 :


.
.
.
.



. :

:SETAR AR .
:STAR SETAR .

( II :

.
:
-1 :




:
. .
. . -2 :


:
( - AR
.
( - MA

.
( - AR MA
ARMA
:
-

AR .MA
.
.
.

( - .VAR
.


. :
-1 :


) (
.
-2 :
:
. :

: .


.
.
:


.
. :


.
. :




:
.



:
.1 :Projections
.
.2 Linear and non linear
:Programming

:
Utility Theory. : .1 .
.2 .
.3
.4 .
.5 .
.6 )(.
.7 .
.8
.PPBS.
.9 .
.10
. Queuing Models
.11 .
.12
. CPM
.13
. PERT

.14 . LOB




.

:


Baumol


Banghart
:
.1 ) (

.
.2 Flowchart
.
.3 .
.4
) .(...
.5
.
. . - .

.
- -


:
.1
. Endogenous
.2 .Exogenous



.
:
.1 ) .(..
.2 .
.3 .
.4 .
:
.1 :Mathematical Models
.
.2 Analogy Models
.
:




.
) (...


.
) Approximation
Regration .(Interpolation
)(. )(.
)(. )(



.
:
. . .
:
)( ) (
.
.
.
:
:
-1 :



(

) ( )


: )
( .

:

Y ) ( X
) ( F) (.

...

:

i=1,..,n






) (.



:
-1
-2 .
-3
-4 .
-5
.

TSS

ESS

.
0 1 1

%100

.

-2 :



STATIONARITY

. :

.
.
.


:
) (:

)( :

S


:
-1

:ACF
k :


1 1-
k>0
.

:

.-BARLET

0
T/1 T .

) (%95
)
k 0 .(0

) ( :

- & BOX
-PIERCE
Q .K
: 51 %90
) 22.31 (



(.
: LJUNG-BOX
:

PORTMANTEAU
ACF


.
-2 : PACF

PACF :

PACF 1

PACF

.
P


:
-1 :

FUNCTION :
. . -2 :
:
: DIFFERENCING
:
.
:

.
-3 :

SEASONAL DIFFERENCING
. :
) (4 - ) (12

.
.


.
:
-1 .AR
-2 .MA

-3 .ARMA
-4 .
:

:

:
. k
.

: .
) (
) K (

) K
.(2000
:
.1 1998)(.
.
-65
10 )(1
.88
.2 .(2002)
" .
.3 . ((1983
.
.4 .(2001). -- .1.
: 167 - .2001 ) .
- (
.5 .(2000) :
- - .1. :
.
.6 .(2002) :
/ - - .1. :
.
.7 ..(1994)
- - .1. : .
.8 .(1991) :
- - .1. :
.
.9 .(1994)
: - - .1. .
.(2000) :
.10
/ - . - .1. :
)
- (.
:







)
) ( )
( ) ( )
*


)(



):(2
) 1 (

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