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The Age of Balance Sheet Recessions: What Post-2008 U.S., Europe and China Can Learn from Japan 1990-2005

Richard C. Koo
Chief Economist
Nomura Research Institute
Tokyo
March 2009

1
Exhibit 1. US Economy Is Deteriorating Rapidly
70
72
74
76
78
80
82
84
86
98
99
00
01
02
03
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09

3.5 4.0 4.5

5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0

7.5 8.0 8.5

Capacity Utilization
(left Scale)
(%, Seasonally adjusted, inverted)
Unemployment Rate
(right scale)
Sources: US Department of Labor, FRB
(%, Seasonally adjusted)
2
Exhibit 2. EU Economic Sentiments Are Worsening
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70
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105
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115
1202000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
(Seasonally adjusted)
Source: Ifo Business Survey, European Commission
Ifo Business Climate
Euro Area Economic Sentiment
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