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The Age of Balance Sheet Recessions: What Post-2008 U.S., Europe and China Can Learn from Japan 1990-2005

Richard C. Koo
Chief Economist
Nomura Research Institute
Tokyo
March 2009

1
Exhibit 1. US Economy Is Deteriorating Rapidly
70
72
74
76
78
80
82
84
86
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09

3.5 4.0 4.5

5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0

7.5 8.0 8.5

Capacity Utilization
(left Scale)
(%, Seasonally adjusted, inverted)
Unemployment Rate
(right scale)
Sources: US Department of Labor, FRB
(%, Seasonally adjusted)
2
Exhibit 2. EU Economic Sentiments Are Worsening
65
70
75
80
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100
105
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115
1202000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
(Seasonally adjusted)
Source: Ifo Business Survey, European Commission
Ifo Business Climate
Euro Area Economic Sentiment
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