Welcome to Scribd, the world's digital library. Read, publish, and share books and documents. See more
Download
Standard view
Full view
of .
Look up keyword
Like this
0Activity
0 of .
Results for:
No results containing your search query
P. 1
Review of Macro Charts 2013 05 06

Review of Macro Charts 2013 05 06

Ratings: (0)|Views: 4|Likes:
Published by kcousins
Chart driven snapshot of the dissonance between economic data points and the S&P, the Euro & rotation to EM & Commodities
Chart driven snapshot of the dissonance between economic data points and the S&P, the Euro & rotation to EM & Commodities

More info:

Categories:Types, Research
Published by: kcousins on May 06, 2013
Copyright:Attribution Non-commercial

Availability:

Read on Scribd mobile: iPhone, iPad and Android.
download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
See more
See less

05/06/2013

pdf

text

original

 
Chart Review
 – 
Can we rotate back to EM? Macro Economic Research May 2013
Please refer to the disclaimer at the end
Poor economic data continues to be ignored by US equities in this policy-driven market
Economic activity seems to be slowing rapidly
 – 
the charts below show trade volume indices for the USand for Asia. YoY changes very rarely fall negative in a normal economic environment.The divergence between the S&P500 and the change in trade volumes is striking, emphasizing what wealready know
 – 
monetary policy is by far the dominant factor in risk asset pricing.
 
Chart Review
 – 
Can we rotate back to EM? Macro Economic Research May 2013
Please refer to the disclaimer at the end
The Eurozone is under particular pressure, although the currency has been relatively resilient of late.The CESI Eurozone
 – 
USA differential (directionally shaded area) has shown a sharp move lower, alsowith a near-term divergence to EURUSD (gold line).The net speculative open interest on the EURUSD is slightly negative, but positioning is a fraction of what prevailed in 2012.
 
Chart Review
 – 
Can we rotate back to EM? Macro Economic Research May 2013
Please refer to the disclaimer at the end
Recent economic data has been weak across both developing and emerging markets. The CitigroupEconomic Surprise Index (
CESI
) for EM is at the lowest levels since 2009 (shown directionally shadedon the chart with the MSCI EM Equity index). In the short term equities and CESI are diverging. Thequestion is, how will this divergence be resolved?Market sentiment towards EM appears to have stabilised, with the shares in issue in the two big US-listed ETF
s (Vanguard and iShares) having stabilised following a 6% decline from the Q1 peak.

You're Reading a Free Preview

Download
scribd
/*********** DO NOT ALTER ANYTHING BELOW THIS LINE ! ************/ var s_code=s.t();if(s_code)document.write(s_code)//-->