and the disaster set-aside programthat allows armers to deer the re-payment o interest and principal onFarm Service Agency (FSA) loans incounties declared as disaster-aid-el-igible by either the President or theSecretary o Agriculture. Tey alsoinclude the Non-Insured Crop Disas-ter Assistance Program (NAP) man-aged by FSA that has been availableor many years. Under this program,armers can obtain coverage againstcatastrophic losses or crops that can-not be insured through the ederalcrop insurance program. All three o these programs, along with the Secretary o Agriculture’s au-thority to allow haying and grazing on lands enrolled in the Conserva-tion Reserve Program, are likely tobe retained in a new arm bill, notleast because they typically involvevery modest annual outlays. Many producers also view the subsidiesthey receive through the Direct Pay-ments program as a critical part o theederal arm nancial saety net, andclearly crop insurance subsidies are widely used as both a way o increas-ing arm incomes and managing armlevel income risk.nutrition programs included in thearm bill proposals. Further, a consid-erable proportion o Republicans inthe House serve districts that includeurban as well as suburban constitu-ents. Tey, too, may be reluctant tovote or substantial reductions in theSupplemental Nutrition AssistanceProgram (SNAP) and the ederalschool meals programs.Finally, a broad coalition o inter-est groups has been ormed to lobby or substantial reductions in armsubsidies. Tese range rom organi-zations such as the Environmental Working Group and Bread or the World, which are concerned aboutprotecting unding or conservationand nutrition programs, to the Heri-tage Foundation and Americans orax Reorm, which simply want tosee lower levels o government spend-ing. Tus, in the 2013 Farm Bill de-bate, largely because o the broaderocus on decit reduction, the tradi-tional players—arm-based organiza-tions, agribusiness lobbies, poverty groups, and environmental lobbies—have been augmented by some new players with very dierent objectivesand vocierous Congressional constit-uencies that include some tea-party representatives.
The Current Farm Subsidy Budgetand the Future of CurrentlyFunded Disaster Aid Programs
Federal arm programs require ed-eral unds and so the scope o thoseprograms is undamentally linked tothe budget Congress is willing to pro-vide to the House and Senate agricul-tural committees. Farm bill spending is scored at about $100 billion a yearover the period 2013-2017 underthe programs authorized by the 2008Farm Bill by the CBO. However, i nomajor changes can be made to spend-ing on SNAP and school lunch andbreakast programs, which seems likely to be the case, about $77 billion willbe unavailable as a source o potentialCongressional budget cuts.Tereore, any substantial budgetcuts are likely to come rom the re-sidual $23 billion in expected annualarm bill outlays on arm subsidy,conservation, research and develop-ment, and other programs. As shownin able 1, these include the DirectPayments program (scored by CBOat about $5 billion a year), the Coun-tercyclical Payments program (about$200 million), the Milk IncomeLoss Contract (about $200 million),the Average Crop Revenue (ACRE)program (about $650 million), theloan rate program (negligible out-lays because o CBO assumptionsabout baseline commodity prices),the ederal crop insurance program($9.1 billion), conservation programs($6.4 billion), and over 80 other pro-grams, including public research anddevelopment and extension programs(scored at a net o $0.5 billion). With respect to drought aid, cur-rently those programs do not includeany o the ve standing disaster aidprograms established by the 2008Farm Bill. However, they do includetwo long standing disaster aid initia-tives: the ederal emergency loan pro-gram (with loans o up to $50,000)
CBO Estimated Annual Average Expenditures Under theProvisions of the 2008 Farm Bill: 2013-2017
Expenditure CategoryCBO Annual AverageExpenditure Estimates
ments,MilkIncomeLossContractOutlays,LoanDefciencyPayments,andACREPayments)$6.29ConservationPrograms(includingConservatoinReserve,WetlandsReserveandotherConservationPrograms)$6.41NutritionPrograms(includingSNAPandSchoolMealsExpenditures) $77.11FederalCropInsurancePrograms $9.09OtherPrograms(excludingcreditprograms) $0.55
Total Outlays B