M. Ivkovic , H.X. Wu, D.J. Spencer and T.A.

McRae

173

Modelling the effects of stem sweep, branch size and wood stiffness of radiata pine on structural timber production
M. Ivkovic 1,2, H.X. Wu1, D.J. Spencer1 and T.A. McRae3
PO Box E4008, Kingston, ACT 2604, Australia Milosh.Ivkovich@ensisjv.com 3Southern Tree Breeding Association Inc., PO Box 1811, Mount Gambier, SA 5290, Australia
2Email: 1Ensis-Genetics,

Revised manuscript received 28 May 2007

Summary
The effects of changing three important biological traits stem sweep (SWE), branch size (BRS) and modulus of elasticity (MoE) on the radiata pine production system were examined using data obtained from the Australian radiata pine industry and from scientific experiments. Significant improvements in sawlog grade, structural timber grade recovery and the proportion of higher-grade timber can be obtained by reducing SWE and BRS and by increasing MoE. A 10% reduction in sweep reduced sawlog degrade by 17.1% and increased green timber recovery by about 0.5%. A 10% reduction in BRS decreased the volume of degraded sawlog by 68% and increased structural timber recovery by 0.61.6%. An increase of 10% in MoE increased structural timber recovery by 12.313.1%. The main advantage of modelling the effects of biological traits using data from industry is greater reliability relative to models based on assumptions. The modelling provides quantitative information that the timber industry can use to increase its productivity and profitability.
Keywords: models; traits; wood properties; production; structural timbers; profitability; Pinus radiata

board quality and the structural timber grade outturn is determined by wood stiffness. These four traits are targeted in the third generation of radiata pine breeding in Australia to improve the profitability of the radiata pine production system (Wu et al. 2005). The effects of growth rate on volume and assortment yield under different production conditions are included in growth and yield models (e.g. Strandgard et al. 2002). However, the effects of stem and wood quality traits such as stem sweep, branch size and modulus of elasticity are not incorporated in such models. Stem sweep, diameter, taper, eccentricity and the characteristics of branch nodes describe log shape. The log-shape variables interact with processing variables and determine timber volume recovery. In radiata pine logs, a moderate sweep can reduce log conversion percentage significantly (Brown and Miller 1975; Cown et al. 1984; Todoroki et al. 2001). Log sweep also affects the stiffness of boards (Downes et al. 2002). Branch size determines knot size in boards, which affects timber strength (e.g. Bier 1986; Todoroki et al. 2001, 2002). Accuracy of prediction of timber strength using MoE can be improved by considering knot size, knot area and position of the knot across the face of the board (Grant et al. 1984). The influence of sweep and knots on timber volume and quality is reflected in current standards for visual stress-grading of softwoods (AS 2858 2004). Wood stiffness determines the mechanical performance of structural timber. Australian standards AS/NZS 4063 (1992) and AS/NZS 4490 (1997) provide a means for evaluating the structural design properties of a reference population of graded timber and for ongoing monitoring of production. More recently, acoustic measurements of the MoE of logs have been used as predictors of timber MoE (e.g. Matheson et al. 2002; Dickson et al. 2004). To evaluate the relative economic impacts of sweep, branching characteristics and wood stiffness on a structural wood production system, links between measurements of these traits and the value of structural timber are necessary. Models such as SAWMOD (Whiteside et al. 1997) within the decision-

Introduction
Four biological traits have been identified as the most important traits affecting the profitability of the radiata pine structural timber production system in Australia (Ivkovic et al. 2006a). These traits were: tree volume growth or mean annual increment (MAI) stem straightness or sweep (SWE) branch size (BRS) stiffness or modulus of elasticity (MoE) of wood. This is because: production of merchantable volume is influenced by growth rate and stem form log quality is determined by log size, straightness and branching board volume recovery is affected by small-end diameter and shape of logs

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making package ATLAS Forecaster (ATLAS Technology 2006), and AUTOSAW simulation software (Todoroki 1997), have been used to assess the relative importance of different traits of radiata pine. However, these models have been mostly developed under production conditions in New Zealand, and it is uncertain whether they are applicable for evaluating radiata pine grown in Australian plantations with high stocking and early production thinning regimes (Lavery 1986). Recent studies such as Resource evaluation for future profit (McKinley et al. 2003) and Breeding radiata pine to maximise profits from structural products (Wu et al. 2005) have provided some excellent Australian data for models of radiata pine solid wood production. We previously developed a bio-economic model (Ivkovic et al. 2006a) based on various biological (e.g. within-stem patterns of traits), technological (e.g. silviculture, processing technique) and economic (e.g. measures of profitability) parameters that simulates the effects of tree traits on the profitability of production systems. The model connected different traits and production system components through linear and nonlinear relationships. The objective of this article is to present more detailed models of trait effects in particular, how SWE, BRS and MoE influence structural wood quantity and product quality (grade) in the radiata pine structural timber production system.

Materials and methods

Data sets For this study we obtained information and data sets on production wood-flows from industry, on form and branching from measurements in plantations and progeny tests, on log shape from optical scanner data and on timber grade recovery from sawmill studies. The data sets and sources were: 1. Information on production flows of radiata pine wood , from growing and processing industry participants including Hancock Victorian Plantations Pty Ltd (HVP), South Australian Forestry Corporation (ForestrySA), Auspine Ltd, Green Triangle Forest Products (GTFP), Norske Skog Paper Mills (Australia) Ltd, Midway Plantations Pty Ltd, Treecorp Pty Ltd and Associated Kiln Driers Pty Ltd (AKD) (Ivkovic et al. 2006a) 2. Branch size distribution data, from ForestrySA (Dr Jan Rombouts, ForestrySA, Mt Gambier, 2004, pers. comm.). Two sites in the Green Triangle region, planted in 1972 and 1973, were assessed in 2000. Silvicultural treatments included three thinning regimes: optimum thinning guide (OTG) (stems after thinning T1: 660 ha1; T2: 460 ha1) OTG + 25% (T1: 850 ha1; T2: 590 ha1) OTG 45% (T1: 400 ha1; T2: 260 ha1), and four fertiliser regimes: 0, 150, 300 and 2 150 kg N ha1. Maximum branch size was recorded for each of two sub-logs, in each of five log-height classes (4.5 m, 10.5 m, 16.5, 22.5 and 28.5 m); altogether 1576 (sub) logs were assessed. 3. Form and branching data, from assessment of Progeny Test PT53 (David Spencer, Ensis Canberra, 2004, pers. comm.).

PT53 was planted in 1972 at Bondo (Buccleuch State Forest, New South Wales (NSW)) and included progeny from both control-crossed (including reciprocals) and open-pollinated families, and unimproved control material. The trial was assessed for growth and form in 1981. In 1986 the trial was thinned on an out-row basis: the middle tree in each row plot of five trees was felled. The thinned trees were assessed for branching, in particular: height of each whorl; branch diameter and angle at each whorl for one branch on one side of the tree; and all branch diameters and angles in the first base whorl above 6 m. Altogether 90 trees were assessed. 4. Optical log scanner data, from Tarpeena Sawmill, SA (Rob Hansen, Auspine Mt Gambier, 2004, pers. comm.). The sawmill is targeting the house framing market, and it has a high-technology saw line associated with kiln drying, autograding, stacking and moulding operations. Shape-scanning technology has improved timber recovery from logs of given specifications. The data sets included logs scanned in October and November 2003, and contained pattern-sorted logs and associated recovery, from logs of two lengths: 4.8 m and 6.0 m. All logs originated from clear-fall operations at two sites: Byjuke and Kongorong. Logs with excessive sweep (> 100 mm) were rejected. Sweep was measured as the largest deviation (mm) of the log from a centre line between the log ends. The values were divided by log length to obtain sweep in mm m1. Green board volume divided by the log volume was used as a measure of the recovery. 5. Sawmilling study results, from the Lakeside Sawmill (Tony Haslett and Alan Selleck1, GTFP Mt Gambier, 2003, pers. comm.). The sample included 50 logs from 3738-y-old clear-fall, with 2530% of the harvested logs from higher site qualities (SQ1SQ3) and 7075% from lower site qualities (SQ4SQ7). The logs were 4.2 m long and limited to a small-end diameter range of 1842 cm which can produce structural lumber. Logs were segregated by log position (butt log, and 2nd, 3rd, etc. upper log). Logs were sorted and colour coded and the following information recorded: log position, diameter, sound-wave velocity and branch index. Sawlogs were sawn with current patterns, lumber sorted, dried in standard high-temperature kiln schedules, planed and machine graded. 6. Resource evaluation data , from a recent collaborative project: Resource evaluation for future profit (McKinley et al. 2003). A sub-sample of trees was selected from ten previously, intensively, sampled sites. Selection criteria used were diameter at breast height and outer-wood basic density, and selections were representative of the range of the two traits for each site. Tree selection favoured those trees that could provide 5-m logs with a minimum 20-cm small-end diameter, as regular disc sampling at 5-m intervals was required for at least six stems per site. Malformed or strongly swept stems were avoided. Between nine and sixteen stems were selected per site, with some stems making five logs, while others provided only two or three logs. The overall

Haslett, T. and Selleck, A. (2003) Return to sawlog: clearfall analysis. Green Triangle Forest Products (GTFP) Unpublished.

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objective was to obtain at least 40 logs per site, which could be subsequently split into three batches each of 1315 logs for sonic sorting. In all 407 logs were sawn into samples 100 mm 40 mm at Whitehead Timber Sales sawmill in Mt Gambier. The lumber was segregated into heart-in (containing pith) and sapwood packets for separate kiln drying schedules in order to optimise the drying process at Auspines Tarpeena Sawmill. The rough-sawn kiln-dry lumber was gauged to 90 mm 35 mm at CHHs Mount Gambier sawmill, sorted and subsequently tested on a stress grading machine according to Australian standard AS/NZS 4063 (1992). As this was a batch sawing study, boards could not be tracked back to individual trees or logs. Therefore, it was not possible to examine the relationships between SilviScan data measured on discs from individual trees and the boards produced. 7. Sawmilling study data, using logs from CSIRO Progeny Test PT52 (Matheson et al.1997; Matheson 1998). PT52 was planted in 1971 at Tallaganda State Forest, NSW, and contained 306 control-pollinated crosses of selected radiata pine. Growth and form traits were measured in 1979, 1982 and 1995. In 1996, 11 crosses (families from a 4 4 diallel) were used for the analysis of wood properties and a sawmilling study. Two 3.6-m bottom logs from each tree from above 1.3 m were sawn for optimum volume recovery and produced a total of 1254 boards. The boards were then kiln dried to 12% moisture content, dressed and machine stressgraded in a commercial sawmill operation. A total of 293 boards, two for each tree sampled, were used for small-clear mechanical testing (MoE, MoR, stability and microfibril angle testing). Knot number, type, diameter, distance from edge, and stress grade of the knot section were recorded for each board. Method to assess the effects of stem sweep Stem sweep (SWE) was defined as the maximum deviation of the log axis from a straight line over a length of log in units of millimetres per metre (mm m1). The two main effects of sweep on a production system are through log grade and structural timber recovery: Effect of sweep on log grade Data set 6 by McKinley et al. (2003) was used to examine the effect of sweep on log degrade, that is the ability of logs to meet sawlog-grade specifications (James 2001). Data were available on sweep of logs only after extremely deformed logs were eliminated because most modern harvesting machines remove swept butts and other deformities after tree felling and before log making. According to information from industry, about 3% of total harvested log volume does not meet sawlog specifications due to excessive sweep (Lew Parsons, ForestrySA, Mt Gambier, 2003, pers. comm.). To describe the distribution of sweep, a log-normal distribution is usually assumed (Whiteside 1990; Turner and Tombleson 1999), but such a distribution fitted to data set 6 would not represent the log sweep initially present at harvesting. To approximate the distribution of the logs before initial grading by the harvester, a rightcensored log-normal distribution (with 3% of extreme sweep

values assumed missing) was fitted to the individual sweep observations using procedure LIFEREG in SAS (SAS Institute 2005). The LIFEREG procedure uses an iterative algorithm developed by Turnbull (1976) to compute a nonparametric maximum likelihood estimate of the cumulative distribution function for the data. Goodness-of-fit of such a distribution to the data was confirmed using the Kolmogorov D statistics ( P > 0.10). The mean and variance of the log-normally distributed random variable SWE were obtained as described by Johnson et al. (1995). Data sets 4 and 6 were used to analyse the significance of age (confounded with site), diameter and log-height class using ANOVA (SAS Institute 2005). To estimate the effect of sweep on sawlog degrade, mean sweep values were assigned to harvest age, diameter and log-height classes. The proportion of degraded logs for each age, log-diameter and height class was derived from the log-normal distribution using the sweep limits currently set by ForestrySA (James 2001). The models were then used together with volume allocation to calculate overall averages, as suggested by Downes et al. (1997). Effect of sweep on timber recovery Cown et al. (1984) established that an increase of 0.1 in the ratio of sweep to SED results in a decrease of about 5% in timber recovery (Cowns rule of thumb). Todoroki (1995), using 100 radiata pine pruned and unpruned logs and the sawmill simulation software AUTOSAW, confirmed Cowns result. Another simulation using SAWMOD (Whiteside et al. 1987) revealed that an increase in sweep of 1 mm m1 of log length reduced green timber recovery by about 0.5%, although the relationship was generally nonlinear and differed among SED classes (Greaves2). The effect of sweep on green timber recovery in the current study was modelled using the optical log-scanner data set 4 provided by industry, although we recognised that the sawlogs entering sawmills have already been selected for straightness in the forest. The effects of sweep and its interactions with site, log-length or SED on green timber recover were assessed by analyses of variance. Sweep was linked with timber recovery by regression equations. The effects of sweep on green timber recovery from each SED class were estimated by multiple regression, and the results were compared with results from simulations with AUTOSAW (Todoroki 1995) and SAWMOD (Greaves2). Method to assess effects of branch characteristics Traits related to branching habit include branch size, branch angle, whorl frequency and number of branches within a whorl. Branch characteristics may be assessed by different measures: the most commonly used are average branch size (BRS), maximum branch size on a log (MaxBRS), and average of

Greaves, B.L. (1999) Radiata: picking the winners: the estimation and application of economic weights for unpruned radiata pine grown for structural timber and liner-board. Restricted report for STBA, Mt Gambier, South Australia.

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maximum branch sizes in four quadrants of a log or branch index (BIX) (Inglis and Cleland 1982; Woollons et al. 2002). BIX has been commonly used in New Zealand as a variable to correlate with sawn timber recovery (Cown 1992; Todoroki et al. 2001, 2002), and it is also used in SAWMOD (Whiteside et al. 1987). The effects of BRS, MaxBRS and BIX on log grade and structural timber recovery were examined to study the effects of branching characteristics on production systems. Effect of maximum branch size (MaxBRS) on log grade The effect of MaxBRS was evaluated using the ForestrySA standard limit (75 mm) allowable for premium sawlogs (James 2001). Data on branch size distribution obtained from industry and our data (data sets 2, 3 and 6) were used to fit regressions (procedure GENMOD SAS Institute 2005) for allocating branch size distribution among age, diameter and log-height classes. The effects of harvest age (thinning and clearfall), log diameter and log-height class on maximum branch size were all accounted for in that way, and the models were then used together with volume allocation to calculate overall averages as suggested by Downes et al. (1997). Using data sets 2 and 3, the goodness-of-fit tests (SAS Insight, SAS Institute 2005) for log-normal and Weibull distributions were evaluated. The two distributions were used to predict MaxBS for individual logs within different sawlog classes. The simplified method of moments (Garcia 1981) was used to calculate Weibull distribution parameters based on observed means and coefficients of variation. The fitted distributions were used to compute the proportion of logs with MaxBRS >75 mm. Where the data contained only BIX, MaxBRS was estimated by a formula relating the two variables (Whiteside et al. 1987): MaxBRS = 1.315BIX 0.48 BIX = 0.6426MaxBRS + 1.036. (1)

Method to assess effects of modulus of elasticity To provide an objective trait for genetic improvement, MoE was defined as the whole-tree clear-wood MoE at harvesting age. High correlations have been shown between outermost samples and whole-tree MoE values of radiata pine at a given height (e.g. McKinley et al. 2003; Wu et al. 2006). To estimate the effect of whole-tree MoE on structural timber recovery, however, estimates of the MoE distribution within log age, diameter and height classes were necessary (Downes et al. 1997). SilviScan and Director HM200 data (set 6) from a recent resource evaluation study in the Green Triangle region (McKinley et al. 2003) were used to allocate mean MoE values to age, diameter and log-height classes by ordinal regression analyses (Procedure GENMOD, SAS Institute 2005). We assumed that the distribution of clear-wood MoE within each log class was normal. The MGP grade recovery was determined by evaluating (i.e. shifting) the within-class normal distribution of MoE over the current MGP grade limits (PTAA 2002) (Fig. 1). The model assumed knot size to be an independent effect relative to clear-wood stiffness (Carter et al. 2006). The model fitted well the current MGP production outturn. The effect of dynamic modulus of elasticity (MoE = nominal density (stress wave velocity)2) on MGP grade recovery was also estimated using the same resource evaluation study data.

Results
Effects of stem sweep Effect of sweep on log grade Summary statistics for sweep (SWE) in plantation-grown logs, estimated via a censored log-normal distribution, are given in Table 1a. First logs had more sweep (7.1 mm vs. 3.5 mm), a higher coefficient of variation (1.7 vs. 1.4) and a less skewed

or

Effect of branch size (BRS) on structural timber grade recovery The effects of BRS were evaluated using three sets of data: Data from an industry sawmilling study on the effects of branch size on machine-graded pine (MGP) grade recovery (data set 5, Haslett and Selleck1) were used to relate MGP grade recovery to the branch index (BIX) of logs by linear regression. Data from a previous CSIRO sawmilling study (data set 7, Matheson 1998) were used to evaluate the effects of knot size on machine grade recovery. A logistic regression was used to relate recovery percentage data to knot size (Hbert and Cown 1999). In that model knot size was assumed to be the same as branch size. Simulated data from SAWMOD (Whiteside et al. 1987) were used to predict recovery of structural timber grades for various BIX values (210 cm) as reported by Greaves2. To convert F grades into MoE grades, a cumulative normal distribution of MoE was fitted to the grade recovery percentages.
MGP10 MGP12 MGP15

Frequency

10

11

12

13 14 15 MoE (GPa)

16

17

18

19

20

Figure 1. Hypothetical representation of the effect of shifting the normal distribution of MoE over grade limits for machine-graded pine (MGP) (PTAA 2002). Unbroken line = a base distribution; broken line = a distribution after trait improvement.

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distribution (1.1 vs. 2.3) than upper logs. For log-height classes, only the contrast involving first logs was significant (P < 0.001), and therefore in subsequent models only two classes (butt and upper) were included. The significance of factors affecting sweep was examined by ANOVA using untransformed data set 6 (McKinley et al. 2003) (Table 1b). Although harvest age was a (marginally) significant (P < 0.038) factor affecting sweep, it was difficult to model because there was no obvious trend with age. (In data set 6 the effect of age is confounded with the effects of site and silvicultural regime.) Small-end diameter appeared not to be a statistically significant factor influencing sweep ( P > 0.079).

The log-normal distribution fitted the within-class data best, a result consistent with that of Turner and Tombleson (1999), who showed that the log-normal distribution fits sweep data better than the exponential or the Weibull distribution. Kolmogorov D statistics for log-normal and exponential distributions were 0.086 (P > 0.01) and 0.243 (P < 0.001) respectively for butt logs; and 0.128 (P < 0.01) and 0.186 (P < 0.001) respectively for upper logs. Based on these results, a log-normal distribution was a more reliable predictor of log sweep. Figure 2 is a histogram of observed frequencies and fitted distributions for upper logs.

Table 1. (a) Summary of statistics for the variable sweep (mm m1), and (b) results of analysis of variance of sweep (data set 6, McKinley et al. 2003). LH = Log-height class (i.e. 1st or upper), SED = Small-end diameter class. (a) Summary of statistics for sweep Log height class First log Upper logs Mean 7.1 3.5 Min. 0 0 Max. 16.3 13.3 Standard deviation 12.1 5.0 Coefficient of variation 1.7 1.4 Skewness 1.1 2.3 Kurtosis 0.6 2.4

(b) Results of analysis of variance for sweep Source Age LH SED Age LH LH SED Age SED Error
1 1

DF 009 001 004 009 003 031 348

Pr > F < 0.0381 < 0.0001 < 0.0793 < 0.8002 < 0.0816 < 0.8616
. . . . . .

Age effects were confounded with site and silvicultural regime effects.
95

80

25
Frequency (%)

20

15

10

0 1.2 2.4 3.6 4.8 6 7.2 8.4 9.6 10.8 12 13.2

Sweep (mm m1)

Figure 2. Histogram of observed sweep distribution for upper logs (data set 6), and log-normal (unbroken line) and exponential (broken line) approximations Australian Forestry 2007 Vol. 70 No. 3 pp. 173184

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Table 2. (a) The reduction in volume of degraded sawlog at clear-fall in each diameter class after a 10% decrease in mean sweep, and (b) the average increase in green timber recovery after a 10% decrease in mean sweep, estimated by three different methods Attribute (a) Sawlog degraded by sweep (a) Sweep limit (mm)1 (a) Degraded volume (decrease, %) (b) Green timber recovery (increase, %) (b) (i) Industry data (b) (ii) Cowns (1984) rule (b) (iii) SAWMOD simulation
1

Diameter class (cm) <25 90 14.4 2530 90 16.3 3035 100 17.0 3540 100 17.5 4045 120 20.7 45+ 120 21.3

Mean

17.1

0.75 0.60 0.61

0.62 0.56 0.62

0.63 0.51 0.55

0.44 0.46 0.52

0.43 0.41 0.45

0.43 0.37 0.40

0.57 0.50 0.54

Set of sweep limits used by Forestry SA for log length of 6.1 m

Using the log-normal fit based on original data, the volume of each sawlog expected to be degraded by sweep was calculated. Exclusion of extremely deformed logs resulted in slightly downward-biased position and dispersion statistics. The calculated sawlog degrade was somewhat lower than that suggested by the plantation managers (2.5% vs. 3.0%), but this was expected because the estimates of the mean and SD were downwardly biased. Using an upper-censored distribution, we adjusted the mean and CV in our model so that the resulting degrade was about 3%. The results indicated that the volume of degraded log could be much reduced (by 17.1%) by a 10% reduction in sweep, and the reduction would be greater in the larger centre-diameter classes (Table 2a). Effect of sweep on green timber recovery Sweep, sweep log length and sweep SED had statistically significant ( P < 0.0001) effects on green timber recovery (Table 3). The interaction of sweep with log length is only a consequence of sweep being measured over a greater length in longer logs. However, the interaction of sweep and SED indicated that the effects of sweep on recovery were dependent on sawlog diameter. Analyses of sawmill data indicated that sweep had a strong negative relationship with green timber recovery (Fig. 3). The regression coefficients of green timber recovery on sweep within each SED class reflected the SWE SED interaction, showing that sweep more strongly affected timber recovery from sawlogs with smaller diameters. The average effect of a 10% reduction in mean sweep on the average green timber recovery based on industry data is presented in Table 2b(i). The effect of the same 10% reduction in mean sweep based on results from Cown et al. (1984) and Todoroki (1995), and from SAWMOD simulations were also calculated and are given in Table 2b (ii) and (iii). The increases of recovery were similar among the three models. Expressed as percentages, the recovery increase was larger for smaller log classes (e.g. 0.75% for 1525 cm logs, but only 0.43% for 4050 cm logs).

Effects of branch characteristics The maximum branch size (MaxBS) did not differ significantly (P = 0.68) between the four fertiliser treatments of data set 3. However, significant differences (P < 0.001) were detected between thinning regimes (for Optimum Thinning Guide (OTG) mean MaxBRS = 3.7 cm; for OTG + 25%, MaxBRS = 3.4 cm, and for OTG 45%, MaxBRS = 4.4 cm). There were also significant differences (P = 0.01) between five log-height classes, using either Bonferroni (experiment wise) or Duncan (comparison wise) tests (Table 4). Significant overall differences (P < 0.001) for both MaxBRS and BIX between logheight classes were also found in data set 6 (McKinley et al. 2003), except between classes 1 and 2 (P < 0.05). In this latter data set, trees belonging to different age classes were pooled. Because of these significant differences our model had to account for harvest age, and log-diameter and log-height classes. The regression model for allocating branch size distribution among the age, diameter and log-height classes is given in Table 5a, and approximations of the distribution of within-class maximum branch size are given in Figure 4. The log-normal distribution fitted data slightly better than the Weibull distribution.

Table 3. Results of analysis of variance of green timber sawmill recovery (data set 4) Source Log length Site SED Sweep Sweep log length Sweep site Sweep SED Error DF 1 1 4 1 1 1 4 94165 Pr>F <0.0001 <0.0001 <0.0001 <0.0001 <0.0001 0.3463 <0.0001

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SED Class 1 70 60 Recovery (%) 50 40 30 20 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 Sweep (mm m1) Recovery (%) 70 60 50 40 30 20 0 2 4

SED Class 2

10

12

14

16

Sweep (mm m1)

SED Class 3 70 60 Recovery (%) Recovery (%) 50 40 30 20 0 2 4 6 8 10 m 1) 12 14 16 Sweep (mm 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 20 0 2 4

SED Class 4

10 m1)

12

14

16

Sweep (mm

SED Class 5 60 55 Recovery (%) 50 45 40 35 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 Sweep (mm m1)

Figure 3. Effect of sweep on green timber recovery in five small-end diameter (SED) classes with 5-cm increments from 15 cm to 40 cm (data set 4)

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Table 4. Basic statistics, and groupings based on Duncans multiple-range test, for maximum branch size in different 5-m log-height (LH) classes (data set 6, McKinley et al. 2003) LH class 1 2 3 4 5
1

No. observations 160 319 318 317 251

Maximum branch size (cm) Max. 04.6 07.3 10.5 11.5 11.5 Mean 2.5 2.9 3.7 5.1 5.8 Min. 0.9 1.3 1.0 1.7 1.8 Std dev. 0.6 0.7 1.4 1.9 1.8

Duncan grouping1 A B C D E

Classes having a letter in common are not significantly different from each other

Table 5. Regression coefficients used to allocate to small-end diameter (SED1) and log-height (LH2) classes (a) maximum branch size (MaxBRS) (data set 2); and (b) clear-wood MoE value based on SilviScan prediction (data set 6, McKinley et al. 2003). No between-class interaction coefficients were statistically significant. Parameter Intercept Age3 LH1 LH2 LH3 LH4 LH5 SED1 SED2 SED3 SED4 SED5
1 2

(a) Maximum branch size Estimate 6.2988 0.0250 3.2921 3.0776 2.2650 1.3235 1.0562 0.8525 0.6422 0.1932 Std dev. 0.4967 0.0106 0.3367 0.3273 0.3237 0.3279 0.2475 0.2092 0.1789 0.1688 Pr>ChiSq < 0.0001 < 0.0180 < 0.0001 < 0.0001 < 0.0001 < 0.0001 < 0.0001 < 0.0001 < 0.0003 < 0.2523
. . . . . . . . . .

(b) Clear-wood MoE Estimate 2.9390 0.2160 5.7269 4.7426 3.5078 2.1680 3.2921 3.0776 2.2650 1.3235 Std dev. 0.8569 0.0180 0.6809 0.6507 0.6218 0.5973 0.3367 0.3273 0.3237 0.3279 Pr>ChiSq < 0.0006 < 0.0001 < 0.0001 < 0.0001 < 0.0001 < 0.0003 < 0.0001 < 0.0001 < 0.0001 < 0.0001
. . . . . . . . . .

Five SED classes were used from 20 to 45 cm Five 5-m LH classes were used (butt = 1, upper = 2 5) 3 Age effect was confounded with site and silvicultural regime effects

1.0 0.9 0.8

Cumulative probability

0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 Max branch size at 6 m (mm)
Actual LogNormal Weibull

Figure 4. Approximations of the distribution of maximum branch size at whorls closest to 6 m height (data set 3)

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The following are our results related to the effects of branching: Effect of maximum branch size (MaxBRS) on log grade The log-normal distribution was used to estimate the percentage of sawlogs with branch size above the cut-off point of 75 mm MaxBRS. Using the fitted distribution, the percentage of degraded sawlog was calculated before and after a 10% reduction in MaxBRS. An overall 68% decrease in the volume of degraded sawlogs was obtained by decreasing MaxBRS by 10%. The decrease was slightly higher in larger diameter classes (> 40 cm) than in smaller diameter classes (< 30 cm) (i.e. 70% vs. 66%). Effect of branch size (BRS) on structural timber recovery The percentages of MGP structural grades were evaluated using three models: Linear regressions from an industry sawmilling study (data set 5, Haslett and Selleck1). In the study the total MGP yields were high, with values of 87% for upper logs and 90% for butt logs. The branch index (BIX) together with SED accounted for 41 71% of the variation in MGP grade recovery. The linear regression coefficients of BIX on MGP grade recovery were used within each SED class within our base model (Table 6a). Ordinal regression of CSIRO sawmilling study data (Matheson 1998). The minimum machine grade of sections including knots was correlated with overall board F grade (minimum of all sections within a board), and the Spearman correlation coefficient was 0.76 (Prob > |r | = 0.001). Hence, in 76% of 293 boards the minimum grade of knot section determined overall board grade, and in only 24% of boards the overall board grade was determined by the minimum strength of clear sections. Ordinal logistic regression was used to predict board grade based on average knot diameter, and the regression coefficients were statistically significant. Maximum likelihood estimates of logistic regression coefficients were used to evaluate the effect of knot diameter on timber grade recovery (Table 6b). However, the accuracy of classification was not high, with less than 60% concordant. Given the assumption that the minimum grade of knotty section is uncorrelated with the minimum grade of clear section, then knot number was a significant factor (P = 0.0001) correlated

with overall board grade, even more closely than knot diameter (P = 0.0230). When number of knots was introduced as a second independent variable, the fraction of correctly classified observations increased to more than 65%. SAWMOD simulations as presented by Greaves (1999). The results showed that BIX reduced recovery rate in a linear trend and an increase of BIX by 1 cm decreased the MoE by about 0.74 GPa (Table 6c). Effects of modulus of elasticity Clearwood MoE was determined by harvest age, diameter and log-height class. The distributions of MoE for different ages (continuous), and diameter and log-height classes were estimated by multiple linear regressions (procedure GENMOD, SAS institute 2005, data set 6); the results are in Table 5b. These results were based on SilviScan predictions of clearwood MoE. Dynamic MoE data obtained by using Director HM200 were also analysed, and the within-tree distribution of MoE was found to be similar (results not shown). The effect of an increase in 10% MoE (or a shift of MoE distribution mean over set limits, Fig. 1) on MPG recovery was estimated using the SilviScan and Director M200 measurements. Both data sets produced similar results: a decrease in lower-grade boards and an increase of higher-grade boards. The fraction of visual F5 grade decreased from 27.3% to 14.2% and 15.1% using SilviScan predicted and dynamic MoE, respectively. In contrast, the fraction of MGP15 grade increased from 2.3% to 10.1% and 9.2% using SilviScan predicted and dynamic MoE, respectively (Table 6d, e).

Discussion
Significance of industry-based models In this study, a series of models was constructed using data from industry and scientific studies. These models, linking tree traits with product value, were constructed to estimate effects of tree traits on the value of harvested log and end-products. A wellconstructed production system model based on data and component models obtained directly from industry is highly desirable, because it is realistic and reliable.

Table 6. Base percentage of MGP structural grades and changes after a 10% reduction in: (a) branch index (BIX), the values based on industry sawmilling study (data set 5, Haslett and Selleck1); (b) branch size (BRS), based on the CSIRO sawmilling study (data set 7, Matheson 1998); (c) BRS based on SAWMOD simulations (Greaves2); and a 10% increase in (d) modulus of elasticity MoE based on SilviScan predictions and (e) MoE based on Director HM200 readings (data set 6, McKinley et al. 2003) Structural grade Base MPG (%) F5 and F7 MGP10 MGP12 MGP15 Total MGP 27.30 48.50 21.90 02.30 72.70 Change in MPG (%) (a) BIX 10% 26.40 47.90 22.70 03.07 73.60 (b) BRS 10% 25.70 49.80 22.20 02.32 74.30 (c) BRS 10% 26.70 48.60 22.30 02.34 73.30 (d) MoE + 10% (e) MoE + 10% 14.2 43.1 32.6 10.1 85.8 15.1 43.8 32.0 09.2 85.0

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Bio-economic modelling has been widely used in animal breeding programs (Tess et al. 1983; Hirooka et al. 1998, Koots and Gibson 1998a,b; Wolfova et al. 2005). Such models combine biological and economic factors (inputs and outputs) within a production system. Using such a model, the effects on the production system of changes in any of the relevant factors can be investigated. Such models provide a very good tool for estimating the economic value of genetic changes in various traits, and can also be used to investigate the robustness of these values to changes in management and market factors. Besides our model (Ivkovic et al. 2006a,b) there have been other recent attempts to include measures of tree form and wood quality into value evaluation models in Australia (Strandgard et al. 2002; Catchpoole and Nester 2002). Models are also being developed linking tree or log characteristics to radiata pine growing and processing in New Zealand (e.g. ATLAS Forecaster or AUTOSAW). These packages are based on a series of models describing the production process from stands to mills, and use measures of biological traits to aid decisionmaking (Carson 1990). A significant body of work was also developed by the IUFRO Working Party 5.01.04 (Wood Quality Modelling) and Wood Quality Initiative Ltd, a research and development company in New Zealand. Such work is likely to have a significant effect on productivity and wood product value. Reliability of the models A bio-economic model usually needs a series of component models to connect tree biological traits to the production system Ivkovic et al. 2006a,b). In this study, we used industry and other data to develop individual models to evaluate the effects of three biological traits (SWE, BRS and MoE) on sawlog outturn and timber recovery. Our models accommodated non-linear relationships to estimate the effect of tree traits on the production system (i.e. shifting of trait distributions). Simple linear relationships alone may over-simplify reality, and lead to unrealistic estimates of the potential value of the traits examined (Greaves et al. 1997; Koots and Gibson 1998a). However, models based on non-linear relationships (e.g. evaluating trait distributions over set limits) are highly dependent on the set limits and the estimates of the trait means. Resource evaluation studies such as by McKinley et al. (2003) produced more reliable means and distributions for tree traits. We used only linear relationships (regressions) for mean trait value allocation to log age, diameter and height classes. Development of non-linear trait value allocation models could improve our allocations (e.g. Tian and Cown 1997). The current model does allow the importance of non-linearities to be evaluated, and another study (Ivkovic et al. 2006b) did include sensitivity analyses to verify some of our assumptions, including production system parameters and trait distribution parameters. Data set 6 (McKinley et al. 2003), frequently used in our study, was based on 400 logs; data set 2 on maximum branch size included 1576 logs; and the model for sweep effects was based on the large data set 4, which included 95 000 logs. The use of large data sets should produce more reliable predictions of the

effects of tree traits on sawmill production than those from previously reported Australian models (Greaves 1999). Nevertheless, models developed in this project and those from literature (Cown 1992; Todoroki et al. 2001, 2002) showed that by decreasing SWE and BRS (or BIX), timber grade recovery improved. Although the percentage of change was in some cases relatively small, the financial impact may be important for producers. Any new data obtained in the future will contribute to the refinement and improvement of the precision of existing models. Other measures of knot size such as branch angle, knot number and the ratio of knot to board cross-section area (KAR) also have potential to correlate with the MGP grade of boards (Bier 1986; Xu 2002). Static (clear-wood), SilviScan-predicted and dynamic measurements of MoE were examined in the current study. Dynamic MoE measurements are showing promise as a selection trait for overall tree MoE, but they should not be confounded by the effects of knots (Carter et al. 2006). Some companies are now successfully using acoustic evaluation of MoE for sawlog sorting (Carter Holt Harvey 2004). Although acoustic MoE shows promise as a selection trait for overall tree MoE, more detailed statistical analyses and comparisons should be made between different methods for MoE evaluation (Cown et al. 1999; Kumar 2004; Matheson et al. 2007). The definition of breeding and silvicultural objectives, and the evaluation of the effects different traits on production systems, is a continuing task.

Conclusion
We estimated that a 10% improvement in stem straightness decreased sawlog degrade due to sweep by 17.1% and increased green timber recovery by about 0.5%. A 10% reduction in BRS decreased degraded sawlog volume due to branch size by 68%, and increased structural timber recovery by 0.61.6%. An increase of 10% in MoE increased structural timber recovery by 12.313.1%. These figures indicate that MoE had the most significant effect on the radiata pine structural timber production system. However, although the concept of changing the mean values of objective traits by 10%, and keeping the trait coefficients of variation (standard deviation to mean ratio) constant, is very useful for purposes of discussion, different traits do have different coefficients of variation. Wu et al. (2005) estimated phenotypic coefficients of variation of 33.3% for SWE and 32.2% for BIX, but only 12.6% for MoE. Additive genetic coefficients of variation were 16.7% for SWE, 16.6% for BIX but only 8.4% for MoE. Therefore the actual potential to change the mean of the trait MoE through genetics and/or silviculture may be less than for the other traits. Quantifying the effects of form, branching and wood quality on the production system is especially important in radiata pine, because there are trade-offs between those quality traits and the quantity of wood produced (i.e. growth rate). Bio-economic modeling can be used to evaluate such trade-offs and to explore possible future scenarios to decide the best type of trees to be grown in plantations. An application of bio-economic modelling

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in tree breeding is presented in Ivkovic et al. (2006a,b), where the model assumptions are discussed and the results of sensitivity analyses reported. We strongly suggest that the bio-economic modelling methodology is also applicable to the planning of silvicultural operations, plantation management and forestry decisionmaking in general. The modelling provides quantitative information which the timber industry can use to increase its productivity and profitability.

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Acknowledgements
The authors of this paper would like to thank the following people who provided us with either the experimental data or valuable professional advice: Chris Berry, Stephen Elms, Rob Hanssen, Neil Harris, Sandra Hetherington, Phil Lloyd, Dr Colin Matheson, Andrew Moore, Ken Nethercott, Dr Jim OHehir, Lew Parsons, Steve Roffey, Dr Jan Rombouts, Sue Shaw and Hugh Stewart. We also thank Dr Brian Baltunis and Dr Chris Harwood for their comments during preparation of this article. We thank the Southern Tree Breeding Association and Forest and Wood Products Research and Development Corporation for their financial support.

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