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Statistics For Increase in Twin and Multiple Births

Statistics For Increase in Twin and Multiple Births

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Published by Trancer0
This project was for a college statistics class. A special thank you to all the Mothers that helped make this possible!! Thanks A Million!!

P.S. Sorry about the sloppy Appendices
This project was for a college statistics class. A special thank you to all the Mothers that helped make this possible!! Thanks A Million!!

P.S. Sorry about the sloppy Appendices

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Published by: Trancer0 on Apr 10, 2009
Copyright:Attribution Non-commercial

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07/29/2009

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With the entrance of the “octo-mom” and several other multiple births, one does not haveto look very far to see that multiple births are on the rise. Every year there seems to be talk in thenews about a multiple birth in the United States. The increase has been met with high emotions onmorality and ethics as of lately, however, this aspect will not be presented here. The statistics doseem to show a trend toward higher multiple births. Arguments have been made as to what thecauses of the increase in multiple births could be.Of course in the “octo-mom” case, in vitro-fertilization was the suggested cause. Scientistshave also suggested that the rise in multiple births have come about by many other factors. Someother possible causes are a mother’s medical condition and the stopping of birth controlmedications. Scientists explain that the fact that many women are waiting longer to start familieshas caused an increase in multiple births. Scientists have also suggested that fertility medicationshave caused an increase in multiple births. Another cause of multiple births, according toscientific research, is ethnicity (hereditary traits). These are the main evidence scientific researchhas suggested that multiple births are on the increase. The top reasons covered here will be age,race, family history, and fertility treatments.According to pregnancy-period.com, from 1980-1997 twin births are up 52% and multiple births are up 300%. This site also states that the possible causes for the increases are fertilitydrugs, in vitro-fertilization, and delayed family planning. These numbers do suggest a dramaticincrease in multiple births. According to scientific research conducted, age and fertility treatmentsare the leading two causes of the increase in multiple births. Heredity, according to pregnancy- period, is not a leading cause but can be a major factor.
 
According to infoforyourhealth.com, heredity causes are spoken of in great detail. It toosuggests that age and fertility treatments are a contributing factor in the increase of multiple births.There was in fact, however, a woman in Argentina in 1992 that conceived duodecaplets (12)children spontaneously. There is also a rule of the probability of having multiples, naturally,known as Hellin’s Law. According to Hellin’s Law, the rate of a twin birth is 1/89 that of a single birth. The rate of having triplets is 1/89 that of a twin birth, and so on. The odds are increasinglyminimal at each stage.Infoforyourhealth.com also adds that in Canada, multiple births are up 35% between 1979and 1999. The factors they suggest that make for a higher risk of conceiving multiples are age,ethnicity, and fertility treatments. According to their evidence, if the mother is 35 years old or older, she will be more likely to conceive multiples. They also state that African women have 16fraternal twin pairs per 1,000 births. Caucasian women have 8 fraternal pairs per 1,000 births.East Asian women have 3 fraternal pairs per 1,000 births. This evidence would suggest that either ethnicity plays a contributing factor or the hereditary genetics involved with their background is.They also state that 35% of pregnancies using fertility treatments result in more than one child.Their evidence also seems to lean toward the increase being attributed to age, ethnic origin, andwhether or not fertility treatments were used.According to statistics from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), therewere approximately 99,639 in vitro or related procedures done in 2000. Of those 99,639, only25,228 (25.3%) of the cases were successful. Of the successful pregnancies, 30.7% were twin births and 4.3% were triplet births. These numbers suggest that a substantial amount (35%) of Assisted Reproductive Technologies (ART) result in a multiple birth when successful.
 
Upon reviewing all the data and evidence, the results show that multiple births are on therise and that the areas of increased chances are age, race, family history, and fertility treatments.However, as a father of twins myself, my wife does not fit any of these examples of increased risk.She conceived our girls at the age of 23 years old and did not use fertility medications or in vitrofertilization. My cousin’s wife had twins and she did not fit any of the increased risk criteria. Twoof my wife’s friends had twins; only one fit the heredity profile. A friend of mine knows twocouples that have had twins, one used in vitro fertilization and one did not. In both cases, neither was older than thirty years old and was Caucasian.Considering the facts about the chances of having a multiple birth, I thought that it isunusual to know this many people that does not fit the criteria for increased likelihood of havingmultiple births, yet did. Considering that one has a 1/89 chance in having twins and increasingunlikelihood of having multiple sets beyond twins, it is strange to find several people that oneknows that isn’t in the “high risk” category. Upon evaluating the scientific research available,taking into consideration my own personal experiences, I decided to do a statistical researchanalysis of my own. I hypothesize that the main factors of age, fertility medication, family history,or ethnic background does not play as much of a part in being a “higher risk” factor as has beenreported.The first part of my research was to look at the financial reports for two publicly tradedmajor fertility medication pharmaceutical companies. I reviewed Schering-Plough and Bristol-Meyers Squibb to see how much of an increase in sales for fertility medications that each did for the last few years. I was unable to find any information on fertility drugs that they producedindividually on their financial statements. The sales revenue was so much of a minute amount of 

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