Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Oregon
U.S. Economy
7%
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1959Q3
1964Q3
1969Q3
1974Q3
1979Q3
1984Q3
1989Q3
1994Q3
1999Q3
2004Q3
2009Q3
1970Q1
1980Q1
1990Q1
2000Q1
2010Q1
Real Estate
$30,000
$20,000
$10,000
$0
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
$8,000
All Other
$6,000
$4,000
$2,000
$0
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Oregon
Oregon: Recent Performance
Long-Term Unemployment
Remains Elevated
68.0
67.0
66.0
Jan 2005
65.0
64.0
63.0
Jan 2011
Oregon
Industries
40
30
20
10
-10
-1
-20
-2
-30
-3
-40
-4
-50
-5
2000
2005
2010
2015
12
Oregon
Oregon: Regional Trends
South Coast
SE Oregon
80%
Gorge
North Coast
75%
NE Oregon
C Oregon
70%
S Oregon
Valley
65%
Portland MSA
60%
55%
50%
Jan-11
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-12
14
U.S.
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
0.5
2011
1
1.5
Deschutes
Crook
Hood River
Jefferson
Jackson
Washington
Josephine
US
Yamhill
Oregon
Clackamas
Benton
Lane
Polk
Marion
Klamath
Multnomah
Umatilla
Malheur
Baker
Linn
Douglas
Wasco
Columbia
Curry
Coos
Clatsop
Tillamook
Lincoln
Union
15
Southern
Coast
16
Oregon
Outlook & Risks
1,500,000
1,450,000
1,400,000
1,350,000
1,300,000
1,250,000
1,200,000
2000Q1
2003Q1
2006Q1
2009Q1
2012Q1
2015Q1
18
100
Upside Risks, Share of Total
2.75
75
2.50
50
2.25
25
2.00
0
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-13
Oregon
Revenue Outlook
Forecast Date
(Around 5
years later)
PIT
Growth
Forecast
Actual
Growth
(Net of
Kicker)
Dec 1979
May 1985
-2.2%
10.9%
$221
Aug 1990
May 1995
9.9%
16.6%
$432
Dec 2000
May 2005
12.6%
22.6%
$1,071
Dec 2007
May 2013
11.4%
???
???
PIT Kicker
($ mil)
10%
5%
0%
-5%
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr
2012
2013
22
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
18%
Total Income
4%
7%
3%
Wages
34%
13%
Impacted by M66
17%
Retirement
74%
Capital Gains
33%
17%
Business Income
Unemployment
All Other
6%
7%
10%
-21%
400
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013F Kicker
24
120%
100%
+$237m
87%
80%
60%
40%
20%
6%
+$20m
7%
0%
-20%
-$41m
-40%
PIT
Corp
Other
PIT
Corp
Other
25
60%
40%
20%
0%
-20%
-40%
Jul
Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
2012
Jul
$20.3
million
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013F Kicker
27
Forecast Changes
Difference from March forecast, $ millions
$200
Personal
$150
Corporate
Lottery
Other
Total
155.4
128.7
$100
69.9
42.6
$50
36.5
$0
-$50
-$100
2011-13
2013-15
2015-17
2017-19
2019-21
28
May ' 13
Forecast
12,044.9
898.3
443.3
12,152.7
914.6
441.6
279.6
285.5
456.2
(12.0)
14,110.3
Change
126.8
9.7
0.9
5.9
258.8
270.9
12.1
454.1
(2.1)
261.7
273.3
11.6
(12.0)
0.0
(101.5)
(120.8)
(19.3)
0.0
(4.4)
126.3
14,232.1
126.3
Projected Expenditures
13,723.8
13,734.9
11.2
382.1
497.2
115.1
1,079.7
1,082.1
2.4
15,185.5
15,314.2
128.7
0.0
0.0
15,343.8
15,485.7
141.8
382.1
(18.2)
(137.2)
15,570.4
497.2
(18.2)
(137.3)
15,827.3
115.1
0.0
(0.1)
256.8
1,045.0
1,059.6
14.6
16,615.4
16,886.9
271.5
156.4
Change
13,579.5
1,036.6
446.3
14,105.9
May ' 13
Forecast
13,452.7
1,026.8
445.4
14,236.5
107.8
16.3
(1.7)
0.0
(4.4)
2013-15 BN
Mar ' 13
Forecast
2015-17 BN
2017-19 BN
2019-21 BN
74.1
44.8
36.4
29
Billions
Forecast
$15.2
$15.1
$15.0
$14.9
$14.8
$14.7
$14.6
$14.5
Dec '10
Forecast
Mar '11
Forecast
May '11
Forecast
Sep '11
Forecast
Dec '11
Forecast
Mar '12
Forecast
Jun '12
Forecast
Sep '12
Forecast
Dec '12
Forecast
Mar '13
Forecast
May '13
Forecast
30
10-Year Forecast
Table R.2
General Fund Revenue Forecast Summary (Millions of Dollars, Current Law)
Forecast
Revenue Source
Personal Income Taxes
Corporate Income Taxes
All Others
2009-11
Biennium
Chg
10,467.2
2011-13
Forecast
%
Biennium Chg
3.7% 12,152.7
10.5%
1,226.6
29.8%
1,181.2
-3.7%
12,521.4
Biennium
Chg
2015-17
2017-19
1,036.6
13.8% 15,606.5
(12.0)
(120.8)
-2.2% 14,236.5
13.7% 15,485.7
2019-21
Forecast
%
1,004.0 -3.1%
9.6% 18,497.0
Biennium Chg
10.2% 20,411.8
10.4%
3.2%
1,096.7
9.1%
1,201.7
7.7%
1,277.2
6.3%
8.7% 20,703.7
9.7% 22,785.7
10.1%
(82.2)
(44.7)
(47.3)
9.0% 20,659.0
9.9% 22,738.3
1,047.5
5.8%
974.0 -3.0%
2021-23
1,005.0
990.5 -16.1%
6.8% 14,248.5
Forecast
13.3%
914.6
2013-15
Forecast
20.9%
12,521.4
Forecast
16.1% 13,579.5
827.6
Net Revenue
Forecast
1,116.2
6.6%
10.1%
Other tax es include General Fund portions of the Eastern Oregon Sev erance Tax , Western Oregon Sev erance Tax and Amusement Dev ice Tax .
Commercial Fish Licenses & Fees and Pari-mutual Receipts are included in Other Rev enues
31
PIT
TOTAL
16%
12%
8%
4%
0%
-4%
-8%
-12%
32
33