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2012 Year End Summary of the Las Vegas Residential Market

2012 Year End Summary of the Las Vegas Residential Market

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Published by John McClelland
Explores what occurred in the Las Vegas Valley in 2012 from a residential perspective. Includes a discussion of existing and new single family sales, bank owned homes, short sales and traditional sales.

The report also examines the high-rise residential market.

Explores what occurred in the Las Vegas Valley in 2012 from a residential perspective. Includes a discussion of existing and new single family sales, bank owned homes, short sales and traditional sales.

The report also examines the high-rise residential market.

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Categories:Types, Research
Published by: John McClelland on May 17, 2013
Copyright:Attribution Non-commercial

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05/30/2013

 
2012
Hihlihin heReidenil Rel Ee Mrke fr 2012
Las VEgas REaL EstatE REpoRt
 
Exiin hme ld   relively lively e in 2012 nd nerly uh u  2011 fiure. We re quie erin h hi den refle l demnd fr rele hme beue he uly f hme beme everely reried in 2012. I h ne inbeme he nrm  reeive everl dzen ffer n rerie ried under $200,000 nd mny qulified ffer n hme inhe ver $200,000 rie in.Indury rfeinl ill lk  mlee underndin   where he uly reriin i min frm. a we ned in ur 2011nnul rer, we ereived h aembly Bill 284 (aB 284) wuld likely hve n influene in reriin uly. aB 284 i  Nevdlw h require n ffidvi f uhriy in whih n individul e hey hve firhnd knwlede f rer dumen required bein he frelure re. Nie f deful iviy, he fire in he frelure re, wned inifinly fer he lwwen in effe. sine he ime frm nie f deful  lemenn he mrke i fen ver ne yer, bnk wned hme (REo)hve brely rikled n he mrke.aB 284 h lerly hd n influene n he e f frelure;hwever, i de n nd lne  he nly ue f hi ndiin.phenix, aZ h l exeriened deline in new REo invenrywih mleed ruee deed drin ver 30% frm he riryer.
2
the Wll sree jurnl h rered imilrly lw invenrynd lw frelure iviy in he Unied se in enerl.
3
theyie rblem in fllwin her e lw nd hve been required mee new rule nernin ln mdifiin nd elemenreled  he rb-inin iue. sendly, he her ndui frlerin wek ln n  finnil iniuin’ blne hee i  ue he hr le re. Five f he nin’ mjr bnk wereemin  mly wih he Ninl Mre selemen  well. thi elemen w mde beween 49 e rney enerl,he federl vernmen nd five f he nin’ lre ervier.
4
thi w neied durin 2011 bu ined in Februry 2012. aril reul f hi w  mixure f frberne, refinne, mdifiin nd hr le bemin he nrm rher hn he ref frelure. a f Nvember 2012, 5,614 Nevd hr le were reed by he elemen r – fr mre ulr hn 1lien mdifiin frivene (374 mdifiin).
5
a hi in he mnery rin f he elemen re lrely mlee.In ddiin  ddin REo invenry  he mrke   very minr e, her mrke lemen hve been very emered well. In 2012 he mrke w in  uriu iin where hme rie were inrein, ye mny hme remin in  neive equiyu. sme hmewner hve mved frm  neive equiy u  iive equiy bu nw hve le inenive  ell if heyre ble  mee heir ymen. Furher, he level f neive equiy n me hme i  dee h hey re n ble  rde-u r mke  lerl mve nd hey ulimely remin in heir urren reidene. Finlly, me enil eller re relun ell when rie hve eblihed me ren mmenum. Webelieve h hee elemen, mbined wih hmebuyer demnd,hve mered  frm he lwe invenry enri wineed inhi mrke (  erene f lied hme  huin k).While we reie he ne f hldin n  n reiine, me hmewner my be delyin her life ln unil riin reurn  he mrke’ ek, whih will be  niderblylner erid hn i k fr hme riin  rie nd fll durinhe reriu yer. We believe h me hmewner myfind he urren envirnmen n runii ime  li hme ine hi i  hihly meiive urhin envirnmen,wheher ellin fr equiy r mlein  hr le nd beinhe mrke reurn.
HOME RESALES (LESS THAN $1M) 2002 THROUGH 2012
201020112012
NOTICES OF DEFAULT
6,000
Source:Foreclosureradar.com,TicorTitle,ColdwellBankerPremierRealty
5,0004,0003,0002,0001,000
   J   A   N   2   0   1   1   F   E   B   2   0   1   1   M   A   R   2   0   1   1   A   P   R   2   0   1   1   M   A   Y   2   0   1   1   J   U   N   2   0   1   1   J   U   L   2   0   1   1   A   U   G   2   0   1   1   S   E   P   2   0   1   1   N   O   V   2   0   1   1   D   E   C   2   0   1   1   J   A   N   2   0   1   2   F   E   B   2   0   1   2   M   A   R   2   0   1   2   A   P   R   2   0   1   2   M   A   Y   2   0   1   2   J   U   N   2   0   1   2   J   U   L   2   0   1   2   A   U   G   2   0   1   2   S   E   P   2   0   1   2   N   O   V   2   0   1   2   D   E   C   2   0   1   2
EXIstINg HoME saLEs
afer  hllenin -bubble erid, 2012 fel unhrerii in bervin everl urnin in h ined  mrefvrble iure. cnfidene in he ll reidenil rel ee mrke inreed bruly wih wner-un ndinver vyin fr he me rerie. simulneuly, fr-le invenry, whih we will elbre n wihin hi rer,fell  ll-ime lw level. Nurlly hi mnifeed in rie inree bu we were mewh urried  he eed hrie elered. We re n lne in hi rend wih phenix nd mny her iie reierin lre in  well.While lre inree in hme rie were unexeed, we hve been huin frm ur bx h L Ve h beenn undervlued mrke fr me ime,  riin rerin bk u wrd he re-bubble rend h me juifiin.We re  bi uiu bu he uly ide nd ne he enil fr rik in me mrke emen. In ddiin  ulynrin, here re me demnd driver h mke fundmenl ene nd re l nribuin  rie inree.obervin everl indir, inludin urrendered driver liene, reidenil meer hku nd urvey by huehldmvin mnie, i i ler L Ve h reurned   iive mirin enri. We l nemle he f hverll vny re hve delined by ver ne eren ine l yer. the lbr mrke i l reierin imrvemenwih 21,100 mre jb in Deember 2012 hn in Deember 2011. the e f Nevd h reurned  rwh ndNevd w he ixh-fe rwin e in 2012.
1
pernl inme rwh i l iive nd xble le nd viirvlume hve bh demnred imrvemen.
REFLEctINg oN
2012
 WItH aN EYE oN tHE HoRIZoN
LasVEgasHoMEs.coMLasVEgasHoMEs.coM
1 Nevdwrkfre.m2 wrey.u.edu/finne/rel-ee/uld/Full-Rer-201212.df 3 h://bl.wj.m/develmen/2013/01/22/ix- ren- huin- invenry- kee- delinin/ 4 Fr  li f ervier in he elemen: h://ninlmreelemen.m/bu5 offie f Mre selemen overih: Mnir’ se Rer Nvember 19, 2012
 
the rel ee mrke h lwy required din; hwever he mdern rel ee buine i exremely dynmi. In he few yer we hve inrdued  muliude f erm nd lel redure. Furher, we hve  brder rne f rninye uh  REo nd hr le, eh wih heir wn hrerii. Finlly, n verll wrene f lrer enmi ndleilive fr i imrn fr infrmed deiin mkin. the rfeinl  cldwell Bnker premier Rely (cBpR) reexer wihin he rel ee indury where nn eduin i  requiremen. cBpR en rvide heir lien wih hem ure infrmin  well  kill nd re n  rninl level. the rry f rery eili fr bh buyer ndeller inludin REo, hr le, luxury, hih-rie, mulifmily, mmeril, lnd nd buy--ren inle fmily i unmhed. 2012 w lerly he yer h mny hd wied fr. overll rie dvned ubnilly, reverin m f he rir yer lewhen meured wih he s&p/ce-shiller hme rie index (meured in Nvember 2012). In rie er-qure-f erm, inle fmily hme exeriened n inree f 28.1% when mrin Deember 2012  Deember 2011 nd imilrly, medin lerie inreed by ver 23% durin he me erid. While hi mvemen i inifin, we uin in bm ime mrinine we re mvin ff f  fr lwer be nd  23% inree in 2012 de n rereen nerly he dllr hne in rie h23% wuld rereen  2005 rie level. thi hd everl ril imliin: llerl vlue inreed, ervin  hel bnkinblne hee; me fmilie wen frm  neive equiy ndiin   iive ne; nd hiher rie er  hve inired feneier  ener he mrke.While mny f hee feure re iive, me f i i redied n n inrni enri wih invenry bein everely reried,in r, by lel iue. Inere re remin exremely lw nd i i unler hw well rik i bein ried in he deb mrke ivenhi envirnmen. Furher, he Federl Reerve’ quniive ein, whih inlude urhe f mre bked euriie, lnwih her meure, i likely keein inere re lwer hn wihu he inervenin. thi hel  kee  mjriy f finnedbuyer in he mrke; hwever, he quein remin: hw erien will he lw invenry iuin be nd will eulive demndninue? Bed n ur infrmin, even if frelure iviy inree, i will ke mnh, ibly yer fr h ieline  rehhe fr-le mrke. the end nineny likely em frm he eie f inver wh quired hme frm 2009  2012 ndmy nw liquide heir rfli  relize  rfi. Finlly, will rei quer find hemelve under mre reure in 2013?While we re uiu  y h he mrken hndle inifinly mre invenry wihuubnil hne  rie iven he heermun f mulile ffer nd brely ne mnhf uly, mre invenry wuld ully be helhynd llevie he enin fel by mny buyer whenryin  find  hme h fi heir need.on he demnd ide, buyer ninue  renizeh even wih he inree mde l yer riere ill equivlen  he erly 2000’. tyillyfllwin bubble, we fen berve rie fllinbelw ln-run rend befre rrein, fen  lwer rjery. Furher, he lbr mrke hn fully revered  here remin  fundmenldr n huehld frmin; hwever, herberver ne h men reverin i likely in brin u furher reiin, brrin exenueven h my dme ll indurie. severlreerher eime h L Ve hme rie re ill belw equilibrium riin. Jhn Burn Rel Ee cnulin eime hL Ve h verrreed by 18%.
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Furher, inver hve exreed heir view f n imrvin huin mrke in everl wywih me inver urhin mre bked euriie, mre erviin rih, ce-shiller hme rie fuure nd hruhurih rel ee urhe. In 2012 puln & c. dded  heir L Ve lnd hldin by urhin nerly 875 re in LkeL Ve. Yield nd reiin eekin inver ninue  une n inle fmily renl.a he huehld level, rie remin hirilly ffrdble. a  yil exmle,  hme vlued  $170,000 (rximely 1,900 q.f.)wih  nveninl mre i likely  hve  rinil nd inere ymen f le hn $900. Wih inurne nd xe,  fmily i likely hve  mnhly uly f le hn $1,100. Fr he medin huehld, hi wuld rereen rund 20% f heir mnhly inme. Zillweimed he lenh f ime fr buyin mke mre finnil ene hn renin, herwie knwn  he buy-veru-ren brekeven in.L Ve rnked hird fr he hre brekeven in, ju beneh tm nd Mimi,  1.6 yer. thi indie h fr he urhe y ff, hey need nly 1.6 yer  brekeven wih renin.
8
cerinly hi i n he nly deerminin fr fr  urhe  be wie.one need  nider ible jb rnfer r lifeyle hie; hwever, i de ffer  quniive bkin  wh mny lredy ereive.Few wuld y h mhin buyer  vilble hme h been ey in he invenry nrined envirnmen f 2012.t  lre exen, wner-un emlyin h nd inver hve been fierely mein fr hme f reen vinend hih-quliy; hwever, here i he fr finned nd h buyer like if hey deire  mdern hme. Hmebuilderhve mlified heir effr in he  yer urhin finihed l frm bnk nd inver r finihin l lredy ininvenry. Buildin ermi iviy re by nerly 75% in 2012 ver he rir yer nd huin r in he 4h qurerured 96% mred  he me qurer l yer, whih w he lre inree in he U.s. New hme le in 2012exnded by 28% ver 2011. In 2011 we fund h new hme were  relevn bu rher nihe mrke. gin frwrd,we believe h new hme will rereen  reer rrin f verll le, riulrly beue he red beweenreen build rele hme nd new hme fferin h mreed. addiinlly, we find h me buyer re red mdern flr ln, meniie, nd enery effiienie. We re bervin lrer rduin hme (3,000 q.f.+) ffered rund $70 er qure-f  emi-um hme ffered  ver $400 er qure-f. While ndin invenry i rre durin hi rel ee junure, mny buyer my find h he wi ime frm nr mlein i niderbly le when meured in me lernive. a hr le urhe n fen exend ver100 dy frm nr  le. Hmebuilder re fen buildin hme wihin  120 dy imefrme  hi mrefvrbly  hr le. Furher,me buyer my find ee f mind wih  hme wrrnynd  mre definiive imelinen heir mve-in. In 2011 weeuled h he niiedlwer rele invenrie wuldled  inreed hme lend ermiin, imilr  hehmebuyer x redi eridin 2009.
6
thi mnifeed in2012 nd we believe  l f he me fr will ninuein 2013. Fr brin mindedbuyer, we hve berved hered beween ellin rie frreen build REo, shr sle,rdiinl le nd new hmemre ubnilly  here ifr le f  diun fr newerrele hme when mred enry-level new hme.
   I   N   D   E   X   V   A   L   U   E   (   Y   E   A   R    2   0   0   0  =   1   0   0   )
300250200150100500
CASE-SHILLER TIERED PRICE INDICES– JANUARY 1993 TO NOVEMBER 2012 –
   J   A   N  -   9   3   J   U   L  -   9   3   J   A   N  -   9   4   J   U   L  -   9   4   J   A   N  -   9   5   J   U   L  -   9   5   J   A   N  -   9   6   J   U   L  -   9   6   J   A   N  -   9   7   J   U   L  -   9   7   J   A   N  -   9   8   J   U   L  -   9   8   J   A   N  -   9   9   J   U   L  -   9   9   J   A   N  -   0   0   J   U   L  -   0   0   J   A   N  -   0   1   J   U   L  -   0   1   J   A   N  -   0   2   J   U   L  -   0   2   J   A   N  -   0   3   J   U   L  -   0   3   J   A   N  -   0   4   J   U   L  -   0   4   J   A   N  -   0   5   J   U   L  -   0   5   J   A   N  -   0   6   J   U   L  -   0   6   J   A   N  -   0   7   J   U   L  -   0   7   J   A   N  -   0   8   J   U   L  -   0   8   J   A   N  -   0   9   J   U   L  -   0   9   J   A   N  -   1   0   J   U   L  -   1   0   J   A   N  -   1   1   J   U   L  -   1   1   J   A   N  -   1   2   J   U   L  -   1   2
LOW TIER (UNDER $108683)MIDDLE TIER ($108683–$167868)HIGH TIER (OVER $167868)
Source:Standard&Poors
sELLINg YoUR HoMEsaLEs pRIcEsNEW HoME saLEs
LasVEgasHoMEs.coMLasVEgasHoMEs.coM
EXISTING HOME CLOSINGS
   N   U   M   B   E   R   O   F   C   L   O   S   I   N   G   S   /   P   E   R   M   I   T   S
7,0006,0005,0004,0003,0002,0001,0000
NEW HOME CLOSINGS, PERMITS & EXISTING HOME SALES
   J   A   N  -   0   4   M   A   Y  -   0   4   S   E   P  -   0   4   J   A   N  -   0   5   M   A   Y  -   0   5   S   E   P  -   0   5   J   A   N  -   0   6   M   A   Y  -   0   6   S   E   P  -   0   6   J   A   N  -   0   7   M   A   Y  -   0   7   S   E   P  -   0   7   J   A   N  -   0   8   M   A   Y  -   0   8   S   E   P  -   0   8   J   A   N  -   0   9   M   A   Y  -   0   9   S   E   P  -   0   9   J   A   N  -   1   0   M   A   Y  -   1   0   S   E   P  -   1   0   J   A   N  -   1   1   M   A   Y  -   1   1   S   E   P  -   1   1   J   A   N  -   1   2   M   A   Y  -   1   2   S   E   P  -   1   2
NEW HOME CLOSINGSNEW HOME PERMITS
Source: Mlxchange, Clark County, Salestraq, Census, Coldwell Banker Premier Realty
6 prvided  x redi f u  10% f he urhe rie f  hme, ed  $8,000 fr fir-ime hmebuyer7 Burn Hme Vlue Index Deember 20128 h://mney.nn.m/2012/08/02/rel_ee/buy- ren- hme/index.hm

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