3821
Federal Register
/Vol. 69, No. 17/Tuesday, January 27, 2004/Rules and Regulations
1
‘‘
Outlook for Mexican Poultry Industry andU.S.-Mexican Poultry Trade,
’’
Milton Madison andDavid Harvey. USDA/ERS Livestock, Dairy, andPoultry Report, July 17, 1998, LDP
–
52.
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A 42-ounce processed broiler carcass iscomprised of 12.5 to 14 ounces of breast meat, orroughly 32 percent breast meat.
products imported from Campeche,Quintana Roo, and Yucatan. Thecertification must state that the productswere processed in a region designated in
§
94.6 as free of END in a federallyinspected processing plant that is underthe direct supervision of a full-timesalaried veterinarian of the Governmentof Mexico. This provision will help toensure that the products will not becommingled with products from anEND-affected region during processingand that the processing will be doneunder adequate supervision inestablishments that are eligible to exportpoultry products to the United States.We believe that the safeguards in new
§
94.25 will allow for the safeimportation of live poultry, poultrymeat, and other poultry products fromthe Mexican States of Campeche,Quintana Roo, and Yucatan.Therefore, for the reasons given in theproposed rule and in this document, weare adopting the proposed rule as a finalrule with the changes discussed in thisdocument.
Effective Date
This is a substantive rule that relievesrestrictions and, pursuant to theprovisions of 5 U.S.C. 553, may be madeeffective less than 30 days afterpublication in the
Federal Register
.This rule adds the Mexican States of Campeche, Quintana Roo, and Yucatanto the list of regions considered free of exotic Newcastle disease. We havedetermined that approximately 2 weeksare needed to ensure that APHISpersonnel at ports of entry receiveofficial notice of this change in theregulations. Therefore, theAdministrator of the Animal and PlantHealth Inspection Service hasdetermined that this rule should beeffective 15 days after publication in the
Federal Register
.
Executive Order 12866 and RegulatoryFlexibility Act
This rule has been reviewed underExecutive Order 12866. The rule has been determined to be not significant forthe purposes of Executive Order 12866and, therefore, has not been reviewed bythe Office of Management and Budget.This rule amends the regulations byadding the Mexican States of Campeche,Quintana Roo, and Yucatan to the list of regions considered free of END andremoving END-related restrictions onthe transiting of poultry carcasses, parts,or products from these States throughthe United States that would no longerapply. The rule also adds a certificationrequirement to prevent commingling of products from Campeche, QuintanaRoo, and Yucatan with products fromEND-affected regions prior to export tothe United States.A number of factors may influencehow much of the poultry produced inthe Yucatan Peninsula will be exportedto the United States as a result of thisrulemaking. These factors includedomestic and international supply of,and demand for, poultry and poultrysubstitutes, U.S. grain prices, exchangerates, freight rates, the structure(number of large integrated operationsversus the number of traditional andsemi-traditional operations) of thepoultry industry in the YucatanPeninsula, and the ability of YucatanPeninsula producers/packersconsistently to ship cuts that meet U.S.market specifications.As shown in table 1, YucatanPeninsula poultry production peaked atroughly 100,000 metric tons (MTs) in1997 and consistently accounted forabout 8 percent of Mexico
’
s total poultryproduction from 1992 until 1999, thelast year for which data were available.
T
ABLE
1.—Y
UCATAN
P
OULTRY
P
RODUCTION BY
S
TATE
1992–1999 (MT
S
)
Year 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999Campeche........................................................4,1525,8216,3226,4386,6797,440 6,6046,784Quintana Roo...................................................5,1245,9405,8107,0435,4905,865 4,6855,374Yucatan............................................................63,02774,31177,84183,31186,48589,69879,90081,470Total..........................................................72,30386,07289,88496,79298,654103,00391,18993,628Percentage of Mexico’s production.................8.05 8.28 7.98 7.54 7.80 ................................................Source: Centro de Estadı´stica Agropecuaria/SAGARPA.
Our analysis of poultry production inthe Yucatan Peninsula suggests 100,000MTs as the upper limit for poultry andpoultry products that could be madeavailable for export to the United Statesat this time. The Yucatan Peninsula isa grain and oilseed deficit area. Most of the grains and oilseeds used in poultryproduction (the single largest and mostexpensive input in poultry production)are imported from the United States.This dependence on imported grainsand oilseeds will tend to limit thegrowth of the Yucatan Peninsula
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spoultry production and, consequently,the amount of poultry and poultryproducts available for export to theUnited States.It is far more likely that the actualamount of poultry and poultry productsthat will be exported to the UnitedStates from the Yucatan PeninsulaStates in the near term as a result of thisrulemaking will be significantly lessthan 100,000 MTs. A general analysis of Mexican poultry production systemssuggests that a maximum of 60 to 70percent of Yucatan Peninsula poultryproduction might meet U.S. importstandards.
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According to ForeignAgricultural Service attache
´
reports andEconomic Research Service (ERS)analysts, most Yucatan Peninsulaproduction will probably be consumedlocally or diverted to the local touristindustry. Because of shipping costs, it islikely that Mexican producers will onlyfind it profitable to ship breast cuts tothe United States. Table 2 shows highand low estimates for possible exportsof poultry and poultry products fromthe Yucatan Peninsula to the UnitedStates. As shown in the table, between18,000 and 52,500 MTs of YucatanPeninsula poultry may be available forexport to the United States, dependingon domestic consumption, a factor thatis very difficult to gauge or predict.Based on these figures, the amount of breast meat cuts available for export tothe United States ranges from roughly5,786 to 16,875 MTs.
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